3,545 research outputs found
A formal method for identifying distinct states of variability in time-varying sources: SgrA* as an example
Continuously time variable sources are often characterized by their power
spectral density and flux distribution. These quantities can undergo dramatic
changes over time if the underlying physical processes change. However, some
changes can be subtle and not distinguishable using standard statistical
approaches. Here, we report a methodology that aims to identify distinct but
similar states of time variability. We apply this method to the Galactic
supermassive black hole, where 2.2 um flux is observed from a source associated
with SgrA*, and where two distinct states have recently been suggested. Our
approach is taken from mathematical finance and works with conditional flux
density distributions that depend on the previous flux value. The discrete,
unobserved (hidden) state variable is modeled as a stochastic process and the
transition probabilities are inferred from the flux density time series. Using
the most comprehensive data set to date, in which all Keck and a majority of
the publicly available VLT data have been merged, we show that SgrA* is
sufficiently described by a single intrinsic state. However the observed flux
densities exhibit two states: a noise-dominated and a source-dominated one. Our
methodology reported here will prove extremely useful to assess the effects of
the putative gas cloud G2 that is on its way toward the black hole and might
create a new state of variability.Comment: Submitted to ApJ; 33 pages, 4 figures; comments welcom
On Markovian solutions to Markov Chain BSDEs
We study (backward) stochastic differential equations with noise coming from
a finite state Markov chain. We show that, for the solutions of these equations
to be `Markovian', in the sense that they are deterministic functions of the
state of the underlying chain, the integrand must be of a specific form. This
allows us to connect these equations to coupled systems of ODEs, and hence to
give fast numerical methods for the evaluation of Markov-Chain BSDEs
Emission lines in the atmosphere of the irradiated brown dwarf WD0137â349B
ESL acknowledges the support of STFC studentship. SLC acknowledges support from the University of Leicester College of Science and Engineering. CH highlights the financial support of the European community under the FP7 ERC starting grant 257431. This work was supported by the Science and Technology Facilities Council [ST/M001040/1].We present new optical and near-infrared spectra of WD0137â349; a close white dwarfâbrown dwarf non-interacting binary system with a period of â114âmin. We have confirmed the presence of Hâα emission and discovered He, Na, Mg, Si, K, Ca, Ti and Fe emission lines originating from the brown-dwarf atmosphere. This is the first brown-dwarf atmosphere to have been observed to exhibit metal emission lines as a direct result of intense irradiation. The equivalent widths of many of these lines show a significant difference between the day-side and night-side of the brown dwarf. This is likely an indication that efficient heat redistribution may not be happening on this object, in agreement with models of hot Jupiter atmospheres. The Hâα line strength variation shows a strong phase dependency as does the width. We have simulated the Caâii emission lines using a model that includes the brown-dwarf Roche geometry and limb darkening, and we estimate the mass ratio of the system to be 0.135 ± 0.004. We also apply a gas-phase equilibrium code using a prescribed drift-phoenix model to examine how the chemical composition of the brown-dwarf upper atmosphere would change given an outward temperature increase, and discuss the possibility that this would induce a chromosphere above the brown-dwarf atmosphere.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe
Readiness to change drinking behaviour among heavy-drinking university students in England
There is growing literature on possible ways of reducing alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm among university students (Larimer and Cronce, 2002; Siegers and Carey, 2010). However, interventions with this aim might be made more effective by information on studentsâ readiness to change their drinking behaviour (Carey et al., 2007a), where an assessment of readiness to change might influence the kind of approach that is thought most likely to be successful. For example, it has been found that readiness to change moderated the effects of a brief intervention among heavy-drinking students (either brief motivational intervention or alcohol expectancy challenge) such that high readiness to change made an expectancy challenge relatively more effective in reducing drinking (Capone and Wood, 2009). This study also reported an association between higher readiness to change and greater reductions in alcohol consumption in the overall sample, thus supporting previous findings (Fromme and Corbin, 2004; Carey et al., 2007b).
Although high readiness to change may increase the chances of successful brief intervention among heavy-drinking students, it has been found that, even among individuals referred to a university-based alcohol intervention programme, there was limited acknowledgement of a drinking problem or interest in changing behaviour (Caldwell, 2002; Vik et al., 2000). Such research has been conducted mainly in the USA and, with the exception of one study (Hosier, 2001), it is unknown whether a comparable lack of concern about heavy drinking is true of students in England. Moreover, there is limited understanding of the different factors associated with, and predictive of, readiness to change in heavy-drinking students.
The aims of this paper are therefore (i) to assess levels of readiness to change among heavy-drinking students at universities in England, (ii) to identify variables predictive of readiness to change among heavy-drinking students and (iii) to generate hypotheses that could be tested in further research
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