Simulating future value in intertemporal choice

The laboratory study of how humans and other animals trade-off value and time has a long and storied history, and is the subject of a vast literature. However, despite a long history of study, there is no agreed upon mechanistic explanation of how intertemporal choice preferences arise. Several theorists have recently proposed model-based reinforcement learning as a candidate framework. This framework describes a suite of algorithms by which a model of the environment, in the form of a state transition function and reward function, can be converted on-line into a decision. The state transition function allows the model-based system to make decisions based on projected future states, while the reward function assigns value to each state, together capturing the necessary components for successful intertemporal choice. Empirical work has also pointed to a possible relationship between increased prospection and reduced discounting. In the current paper, we look for direct evidence of a relationship between temporal discounting and model-based control in a large new data set (n = 168). However, testing the relationship under several different modeling formulations revealed no indication that the two quantities are related

Loss Aversion Correlates With the Propensity to Deploy Model-Based Control

Reward-based decision making is thought to be driven by at least two different types of decision systems: a simple stimulus–response cache-based system which embodies the common-sense notion of “habit,” for which model-free reinforcement learning serves as a computational substrate, and a more deliberate, prospective, model-based planning system. Previous work has shown that loss aversion, a well-studied measure of how much more on average individuals weigh losses relative to gains during decision making, is reduced when participants take all possible decisions and outcomes into account including future ones, relative to when they myopically focus on the current decision. Model-based control offers a putative mechanism for implementing such foresight. Using a well-powered data set (N = 117) in which participants completed two different tasks designed to measure each of the two quantities of interest, and four models of choice data for these tasks, we found consistent evidence of a relationship between loss aversion and model-based control but in the direction opposite to that expected based on previous work: loss aversion had a positive relationship with model-based control. We did not find evidence for a relationship between either decision system and risk aversion, a related aspect of subjective utility

Comparison of Intercultural Competency between Russian and American University Students = Сравнение межкультурной компетенции студентов российских и американских университетов

Intercultural competency influences the quality of international relations as cultural and global perceptions impact individual and collective attitudes and levels of participation. Research addressing differences and causes of varying levels of intercultural competency could ultimately provide insight, understanding, and progress towards enhancing global awareness. The purpose of this study was to compare American undergraduate university students\u27 intercultural competency to that of Russian undergraduate university students. This study was theoretically based on the Developmental Model of Intercultural Sensitivity (DMIS), developed by Bennett (1986). The DMIS described six stages of intercultural competency: (a) Denial or Unaware; (b) Polarization or Defense; (c) Minimization; (d) Acceptance; (e) Adaptation; and (f) Integration. The research subjects for this study included 26 persons, 18 to 30 years old, who were enrolled in the North-Eastern State University, Magadan (NESU), and 26 persons, 18 to 30 years old, who were enrolled in Minnesota State University, Mankato (MSU). This study assessed intercultural competency with the Intercultural Development Inventory (IDI) (Hammer & Bennett, 1998, 2001, 2010). Based on the DMIS, the IDI consisted of fifty, Likert-type items that can be answered in 20 to 30 minutes. All students completed the IDI on-line in their first language. The investigators used the group mean scores to evaluate whether any significant indicators of differences or similarities were observed in intercultural competency. Results indicated statistically significant differences in orientation to cultural differences between Russian and American undergraduate university students. This is a English translated preprint version provided by author Sandell. © Санделл Е. Дж., Лоренц Е.А., Клыпа О.В., Воскресенский О.В., 2016© Sandell, E. J., Lohrenz, E. A., Klypa, O. V., Voskresensky, O., 201

Neural signatures of strategic types in a two-person bargaining game

The management and manipulation of our own social image in the minds of others requires difficult and poorly understood computations. One computation useful in social image management is strategic deception: our ability and willingness to manipulate other people's beliefs about ourselves for gain. We used an interpersonal bargaining game to probe the capacity of players to manage their partner's beliefs about them. This probe parsed the group of subjects into three behavioral types according to their revealed level of strategic deception; these types were also distinguished by neural data measured during the game. The most deceptive subjects emitted behavioral signals that mimicked a more benign behavioral type, and their brains showed differential activation in right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and left Brodmann area 10 at the time of this deception. In addition, strategic types showed a significant correlation between activation in the right temporoparietal junction and expected payoff that was absent in the other groups. The neurobehavioral types identified by the game raise the possibility of identifying quantitative biomarkers for the capacity to manipulate and maintain a social image in another person's mind

Time Series Measurements of Chlorophyll Fluorescence in the Oceanic Bottom Boundary Layer With a Multisensor Fiber-Optic Fluorometer

An in situ multisensor fiber-optic fluorometer (MFF) has been developed to acquire long-term chlorophyll fluorescence measurements in the oceanic bottom boundary layer to characterize the finescale pigment structure at vertical spatial scales comparable to physical measurements. The eight fluorescence sensors of the MFF are composed of dual optical fibers of varying lengths (1.5-8 m), with the fiber ends oriented at 30 degrees to each other and enclosed by a small light baffle. Strobe excitation blue light is passed through one of each pair of optical fibers and stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence is carried back to a photomultiplier. Two sets of four fluorescence sensors assigned to high- and low-sensitivity photomultiplier detectors enable chlorophyll a measurements in two ranges, 0-50 mg m(-3) and 0-200 mg m(-3), respectively. Aspects of the design of the fiber-optic sensor are described that were intended to optimize detection of fluorescence signals and minimize interference by ambient light. The fiber-optic sensor outputs were stable with minimal instrument drift during long-term field operations, and measurements were not affected by turbidity and ambient light. A vertical array of fiber-optic fluorescence sensors supported on a tripod has been deployed at coastal sites for up to seven weeks and chlorophyll fluorescence was obtained with sufficiently high vertical spatial and temporal resolution

Belief about Nicotine Modulates Subjective Craving and Insula Activity in Deprived Smokers

Little is known about the specific neural mechanisms through which cognitive factors influence craving and associated brain responses, despite the initial success of cognitive therapies in treating drug addiction. In this study, we investigated how cognitive factors such as beliefs influence subjective craving and neural activities in nicotine-addicted individuals using model-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and neuropharmacology. Deprived smokers (N = 24) participated in a two-by-two balanced placebo design, which crossed beliefs about nicotine (told "nicotine" vs. told "no nicotine") with the nicotine content in a cigarette (nicotine vs. placebo) which participants smoked immediately before performing a fMRI task involving reward learning. Subjects' reported craving was measured both before smoking and after the fMRI session. We found that first, in the presence of nicotine, smokers demonstrated significantly reduced craving after smoking when told "nicotine in cigarette" but showed no change in craving when told "no nicotine." Second, neural activity in the insular cortex related to craving was only significant when smokers were told "nicotine" but not when told "no nicotine." Both effects were absent in the placebo condition. Third, insula activation related to computational learning signals was modulated by belief about nicotine regardless of nicotine's presence. These results suggest that belief about nicotine has a strong impact on subjective craving and insula responses related to both craving and learning in deprived smokers, providing insights into the complex nature of belief-drug interactions

Distributions of Pigments and Primary Production in a Gulf-Stream Meander

An investigation was made of physical effects of Gulf Stream meandering on the vertical and horizontal distributions of photosynthetic pigments and primary production. Cruises were conducted in the vicinity of a meander east of 73-degrees-W and north of 37-degrees-N from September 21 to October 5 (leg 1) and October 12-21, 1988 (leg 2), on the R/V Cape Hatteras. Relationships of photosynthesis (normalized to chlorophyll) to irradiance (P-1) did not show large horizontal variation, and water column composite P-I curves from leg 1 and leg 2 were similar. Therefore a single P-I curve derived from pooled data was used to model distributions of primary production. Distributions of photosynthetic pigments were characterized on the basis of in vivo fluorescence profiles and empirical relationships with extracted pigment concentrations. Subsurface irradiance was described using a spectral irradiance model. Cross sections of the Gulf Stream revealed consistently higher pigment concentrations and primary production on the slope water side. Along-stream variations in pigment distributions and primary production were apparently related to density structure influenced by meander circulation. Such variations were less pronounced during leg 2. which came after a transition from a well-defined meander interacting with a warm-core ring (leg 1) to a more linear stream (leg 2). Higher water-column-integrated primary production during leg 2 was attributed to mixing-induced nutrient injection and redistribution of chlorophyll in the photic zone

Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years

We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing feedback loops.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

Testing for Fictive Learning in Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

We conduct two experiments where subjects make a sequence of binary choices between risky and ambiguous binary lotteries. Risky lotteries are defined as lotteries where the relative frequencies of outcomes are known. Ambiguous lotteries are lotteries where the relative frequencies of outcomes are not known or may not exist. The trials in each experiment are divided into three phases: pre-treatment, treatment and post-treatment. The trials in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases are the same. As such, the trials before and after the treatment phase are dependent, clustered matched-pairs, that we analyze with the alternating logistic regression (ALR) package in SAS. In both experiments, we reveal to each subject the outcomes of her actual and counterfactual choices in the treatment phase. The treatments differ in the complexity of the random process used to generate the relative frequencies of the payoffs of the ambiguous lotteries. In the first experiment, the probabilities can be inferred from the converging sample averages of the observed actual and counterfactual outcomes of the ambiguous lotteries. In the second experiment the sample averages do not converge. If we define fictive learning in an experiment as statistically significant changes in the responses of subjects before and after the treatment phase of an experiment, then we expect fictive learning in the first experiment, but no fictive learning in the second experiment. The surprising finding in this paper is the presence of fictive learning in the second experiment. We attribute this counterintuitive result to apophenia: “seeing meaningful patterns in meaningless or random data.” A refinement of this result is the inference from a subsequent Chi-squared test, that the effects of fictive learning in the first experiment are significantly different from the effects of fictive learning in the second experiment