Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future

It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios, yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. This study explores changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), including time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, and idealized experiments (1 % CO2 and abrupt4×CO2). These states encompass climates within a range of 12 ∘C in global mean temperature change. We examine climate variability from the perspectives of local interannual change, coherent climate modes, and through compositing extremes. The change in the interannual variability of precipitation is strongly dependent upon the local change in the total amount of precipitation. At the global scale, temperature variability is inversely related to mean temperature change on intra-seasonal to multidecadal timescales. This decrease is stronger over the oceans, while there is increased temperature variability over subtropical land areas (40∘ S–40∘ N) in warmer simulations. We systematically investigate changes in the standard deviation of modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode, with global mean temperature change. While several climate modes do show consistent relationships (most notably the Atlantic Zonal Mode), no generalizable pattern emerges. By compositing extreme precipitation years across the ensemble, we demonstrate that the same large-scale modes influencing rainfall variability in Mediterranean climates persist throughout paleoclimate and future simulations. The robust nature of the response of climate variability, between cold and warm climates as well as across multiple timescales, suggests that observations and proxy reconstructions could provide a meaningful constraint on climate variability in future projections

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Aleutian Low

Past studies have suggested that regional trends in anthropogenic aerosols can influence the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) through modulation of the Aleutian low. However, the robustness of this connection is debated. This study analyzes changes to the Aleutian low in an ensemble of climate models forced with large, idealized global and regional black carbon (BC) and sulfate aerosol perturbations. To isolate the role of ocean feedbacks, the experiments are performed with an interactive ocean and with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The results show a robust weakening of the Aleutian low forced by a global tenfold increase in BC in both experiment configurations. A linearized steady-state primitive equation model is forced with diabatic heating anomalies to investigate the mechanisms through which heating from BC emissions influences the Aleutian low. The heating from BC absorption over India and East Asia generates Rossby wave trains that propagate into the North Pacific sector, forming an upper-tropospheric ridge. Sources of BC outside of East Asia enhance the weakening of the Aleutian low. The responses to a global fivefold and regional tenfold increase in sulfate aerosols over Asia show poor consistency across climate models, with a multimodel mean response that does not project strongly onto the Aleutian low. These findings for a large, idealized step increase in regional sulfate aerosol differ from previous studies that suggest the transient increase in sulfate aerosols over Asia during the early twenty-first century weakened the Aleutian low and induced a transition to a negative PDO phase

The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance

Tropical Precipitation Woes in the Community Earth System Model Version 2

The newly developed paleo-climate calibrated Community Earth System Model, version 2 (pCESM2) simulates a more realistic global temperature response to external forcing compared to the standard CESM2. Here we show that the code modifications in pCESM2 result in increased atmospheric convection and a northward shift of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones. These changes are exacerbated under Last Glacial Maximum forcing, resulting in tropical precipitation changes that are inconsistent with both proxy data evidence and simulations with other contemporary models. Similar model-data disagreements are also present in the standard CESM2. Thus, more work is needed to improve the simulated Last Glacial Maximum hydroclimate response in CESM2. We further suggest that well-constrained paleo climates should be given a larger emphasis in model development more broadly, as these climates can help identify issues with model parameterizations under altered forcing and thus improve the fidelity of simulations of past, present, and future climates. © 2023. The Authors.Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

Coupled climate–ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments

Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future

It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios, yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. This study explores changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), including time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, and idealized experiments (1 % CO2 and abrupt4×CO2). These states encompass climates within a range of 12 ∘C in global mean temperature change. We examine climate variability from the perspectives of local interannual change, coherent climate modes, and through compositing extremes. The change in the interannual variability of precipitation is strongly dependent upon the local change in the total amount of precipitation. At the global scale, temperature variability is inversely related to mean temperature change on intra-seasonal to multidecadal timescales. This decrease is stronger over the oceans, while there is increased temperature variability over subtropical land areas (40∘ S–40∘ N) in warmer simulations. We systematically investigate changes in the standard deviation of modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode, with global mean temperature change. While several climate modes do show consistent relationships (most notably the Atlantic Zonal Mode), no generalizable pattern emerges. By compositing extreme precipitation years across the ensemble, we demonstrate that the same large-scale modes influencing rainfall variability in Mediterranean climates persist throughout paleoclimate and future simulations. The robust nature of the response of climate variability, between cold and warm climates as well as across multiple timescales, suggests that observations and proxy reconstructions could provide a meaningful constraint on climate variability in future projections

The importance of Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateways for glacial expansion in Scandinavia

The last glacial cycle began around 116,000 years before present during a period with low incoming solar radiation in Northern Hemisphere summer. Following the glacial inception in North America, the marine sediment record depicts a weakening of the high-latitude ocean overturning circulation and a multi-millennial eastward progression of glaciation across the North Atlantic basin. Modelling studies have shown that reduced solar radiation can initiate inception in North America and Siberia; however, the proximity to the temperate North Atlantic typically precludes ice growth in Scandinavia. Using a coupled Earth-system–ice-sheet model, we show that ice forming in North America may help facilitate glacial expansion in Scandinavia. As large coherent ice masses form and start filling the ocean gateways in the Canadian Archipelago, the transport of comparatively fresh North Pacific and Arctic water through the archipelago is diverted east of Greenland, resulting in a freshening of North Atlantic deep convection regions, sea-ice expansion and a substantial cooling that is sufficient to trigger glacial inception in Scandinavia. This mechanism may also help explain the Younger Dryas cold reversal and the rapid regrowth of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet following several warm events in the last glacial period

Impact of Grids and Dynamical Cores in CESM2.2 on the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Six different configurations, a mixture of grids and atmospheric dynamical cores available in the Community Earth System Model, version 2.2 (CESM2.2), are evaluated for their skill in representing the climate of the Arctic and the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The finite-volume dynamical core uses structured, latitude-longitude grids, whereas the spectral-element dynamical core is built on unstructured meshes, permitting grid flexibility such as quasi-uniform grid spacing globally. The 1°–2° latitude-longitude and quasi-uniform unstructured grids systematically overestimate both accumulation and ablation over the GrIS. Of these 1°–2° grids, the latitude-longitude grids outperform the quasi-uniform unstructured grids because they have more degrees of freedom to represent the GrIS. Two Arctic-refined meshes, with 1/4° and 1/8° refinement over Greenland, were developed for the spectral-element dynamical core and are documented here as newly supported configurations in CESM2.2. The Arctic meshes substantially improve the simulated clouds and precipitation rates in the Arctic. Over Greenland, these meshes skillfully represent accumulation and ablation processes, leading to a more realistic GrIS surface mass balance. As CESM is in the process of transitioning away from conventional latitude-longitude grids, these new Arctic-refined meshes improve the representation of polar processes in CESM by recovering resolution lost in the transition to quasi-uniform grids, albeit at increased computational cost. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]