52 research outputs found
Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)
This paper aims at assessing the fiscal sustainability and its political determinants in seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), namely Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. First, using the recent sustainability approach of Bohn (1998) based on fiscal reaction function, econometric findings using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) reveal a positive response of the primary surplus to changes in debt in several countries. In other words, fiscal policy is sustainable in Baltic countries, Slovenia and Slovakia, but not in Poland and in the Czech Republic. Second, by introducing political dummy variables, we test the electoral budget cycle and the partisan cycle theories. We find the presence of electoral and partisan cycle in Poland but not in the rest of our countries.Fiscal reaction function, Public debt sustainability, Political budget cycles, Time series
External debt sustainability and vulnerabilities: Evidence from a panel of 24 Asian countries and prospective analysis
The purpose of this empirical study is first to assess the external debt sustainability in a panel of 24 Asian emerging and developing countries divided into four sub-panels, namely the regions of Southeast Asia, Southwest Asia, Central Asia, and the Pacific over the period 1993-2014. We use the present-value methodology to determine whether a country satisfies its intertemporal external constraint, namely whether its external debt is sustainable in the long run. According to such methodology, we study the panel stationarity of external debt, current account, imports, and exports, then the cointegration between these two last variables. We employ unit root and cointegration tests, the first and second generation tests, to take into account cross-sectional dependence. Our findings imply that the external debt in our panel of 24 Asian emerging and developing countries is sustainable in the long run. Finally, we analyze the vulnerabilities, factors, and risks in the region due to different external debt criteria (the debt currency composition, share of the short-term external debt, amount of reserves, and debt service). We conclude this study by establishing different prospective scenarios on the Asian emerging and developing countries according to the degree of economic slowdown (i.e., a "soft" or "hard" landing) in the People's Republic of China
Leader dismissal or continuity, president longevity, geographic orientation of owners and performance: Insights from French menâs football, 1994-2016
We investigated the impacts of president longevity and the geographic orientation of owners on team performance and on the effectiveness of dismissing the leader. In addition, we considered their impacts on the effectiveness of not dismissing the leader while the same organisation fires them at another time for a similar performance. We also tested the impact of dismissing the leader or not on performance. We explored the aforementioned risk-taking relationships in the first tier of French menâs football over the 1994â2016 period (n = 4918 observations). To do so, we used a counterfactual based on the evolution of the team position over the last three games leading to the leader change and estimate linear regression models with fixed team effects. Our findings show that performance improves either after a leader dismissal or not in the same situation, and both president longevity and the geographic orientation of owners impact the effectiveness of dismissing the leader or not. In particular, global- and local-oriented ownerships have a positive impact on the effectiveness of the decision to dismiss the leader or not compared to national-oriented ownership. Practical implications stem from the research, e.g., how organisations with national-oriented ownership can overcome their competitive disadvantage
Le pouvoir des mots : émission et réception du discours du banquier central
Cet article, vise Ă comprendre pourquoi le discours des banquiers centraux a Ă©tĂ© parĂ© dâun poids significatif depuis quelques annĂ©es. Ă partir des Ă©lĂ©ments mis en avant dans la thĂ©orie Ă©conomique standard, dâune part, et la sociologie, dâautre part, nous Ă©tudions les dispositifs qui ont permis cette transformation et analysons certains actes de langage.Nous revenons dans un premier temps sur le contexte thĂ©orique qui a favorisĂ© la mise en exergue de la parole des banquiers centraux pour les Ă©conomistes. La premiĂšre section rĂ©sume les arguments en faveur de la communication de la Banque centrale dĂ©veloppĂ©s par les Nouveaux Classiques puis les Nouveaux KeynĂ©siens. Nous dĂ©crivons ensuite rapidement les divers canaux de transmission. Dans une deuxiĂšme partie, nous revenons sur les « actes de langage » de la BCE en Ă©tudiant les pratiques et les outils employĂ©s. Nous Ă©tudions ensuite la tonalitĂ© de cette communication : Ă partir des mots utilisĂ©s dans les Ă©ditoriaux du bulletin mensuel de lâinstitution (et leur connotation positive ou nĂ©gative), on crĂ©e par un traitement linguistique des indicateurs dâoptimisme ou de pessimisme. Dans une troisiĂšme partie, nous interrogeons les rapports qui sâĂ©tablissent entre le locuteur et les rĂ©cepteurs des messages. Cette question nous amĂšne Ă discuter la distinction entre effets performatifs (production ou transformation de la rĂ©alitĂ©) et perlocutoires (action sur les reprĂ©sentations). Nous revenons enfin sur les raisons de cette mise en exergue de la parole du banquier central : le locuteur nâest-il pas le porte-parole des opĂ©rateurs sur les marchĂ©s financiers ?This paper aims at understanding why the central banksâ talks took a significant weight recently. By using some tools, put forward in the economic theory, on the one hand, and on sociology, on the other hand, we study the devices permitting this transformation and we analyse some âacts of speechâ. First, we describe how the theoretical context led to highlight the speeches of central bankers for the economists. The first section summarizes the arguments in favour of the communication of the central Bank developed by the New Classicals and the New Keynesian Economics. Then, we describe the various transmission channels. Second, we come back on the âacts of speechâ from the ECB by studying its practices. We analyse the tone of this communication. We create indicators of optimism or pessimism through a text mining approach based on the words (and their positive or negative connotation) used in the editorials of the ECB monthly bulletin. Finally, we question the relationships established between the speaker and the receivers of those messages. This question brings us to discuss the distinction between performative effects (production of the reality) and perlocution (action on the representations). We conclude on the reasons of the communicational turn of central bankers, namely that the speaker can be seen as the spokes-man of financial marketsâ operators
Mise Ă jour des recommandations du GEFPICS pour lâĂ©valuation du statut HER2 dans les cancers du sein en France
En Europe, les patientes atteintes dâun cancer du sein invasif susceptibles de recevoir un traitement ciblĂ© anti-HER2 sont actuellement sĂ©lectionnĂ©es sur la base dâun test immunohistochimique (IHC). Les techniques dâhybridation in situ (HIS) doivent ĂȘtre utilisĂ©es pour lâĂ©valuation des cas IHC ambigus (2+) et pour lâĂ©talonnage de la technique IHC. Les patientes Ă©ligibles au traitement ciblant HER2 prĂ©sentent un statut HER2 positif dĂ©fini par un test IHC 3+ ou un test 2+ amplifiĂ©. Une dĂ©tection correcte du statut HER2 est indispensable Ă une utilisation optimale des thĂ©rapeutiques ciblĂ©es puisque leur efficacitĂ© est limitĂ©e aux patientes surexprimant HER2. Il est capital que lâĂ©valuation du statut HER2 soit optimisĂ©e et fiable. Ces recommandations du groupe dâĂ©tude des facteurs pronostiques IHC dans le cancer du sein (GEFPICS) dĂ©taillent et commentent les diffĂ©rentes Ă©tapes des techniques IHC et HIS, les contrĂŽles utilisables et les rĂšgles gĂ©nĂ©rales de lâapprentissage de la lecture. Une fois acquis, ce savoir-faire doit ĂȘtre pĂ©rennisĂ© par lâobservation de rĂšgles de bonnes pratiques techniques (utilisation rigoureuse de tĂ©moins internes et externes et participation rĂ©guliĂšre Ă des programmes dâAssurance qualitĂ© [AQ])., Summary In Europe, patients who may benefit from an HER2 targeted drug are currently selected by immunohistochemistry (IHC). In situ hybridization (ISH) techniques should be used for complementary assessment of ambiguous 2+ IHC cases and for the calibration of the IHC technique. Eligibility to an HER2 target treatment is defined by an HER2 positive status being IHC test 3+ or 2+ amplified. Reliable detection of HER2 status is essential to the appropriate usage of HER2 targeted drugs because its specificity is limited to tumors overexpressing HER2. It is essential that the IHC evaluation of the HER2 status of a mammary carcinoma is optimized and reliable. This GEFPICSâ guidelines look over the different steps of the IHC technique, the controls and, the rules for interpretation. Once acquired, this knowledge must be perpetuated by the observation of rules of good technical practice (internal and external controls, quality assurance programs)
Sustainability and Financing of the US current account: the role of Asian Central Banks
International audienc
Défis à relever pour la politique budgétaire en Amérique latine en matiÚre de stabilisation et de redistribution
Cet article se propose d'Ă©tudier les rĂ©ponses offertes par la politique fiscale en AmĂ©rique latine dans la situation actuelle " d'atterrissage en douceur ". En fait, il apparaĂÂźt que la rĂ©gion est exposĂ©e Ă un risque de choc externe de pays dĂ©veloppĂ©s et la Chine Ă un risque politique. Dans ces conditions, la politique fiscale a un rĂŽle important Ă jouer pour gĂ©rer ces risques en se centrant sur ses fonctions de stabilisation et de distribution. En outre, nous proposons un systĂšme de plusieurs mesures pour chaque fonction. Enfin, nous dĂ©montrons que les pays latino-amĂ©ricains ne souffrent pas de contrainte du financement pour appliquer nos recommandations
An assessment of US fiscal sustainability: findings from present-value and accounting approaches
International audienc
Défis à relever pour la politique budgétaire en Amérique latine en matiÚre de stabilisation et de redistribution
El propĂłsito de este artĂculo es estudiar las respuestas ofrecidas por la polĂtica
fiscal en AmĂ©rica Latina en la situaciĂłn actual del âaterrizaje suaveâ. De hecho,
aparece que la regiĂłn estĂĄ expuesta a un riesgo de choque externo de paĂses desarrollados y China a un riesgo polĂtico. En estas condiciones, la polĂtica fiscal tiene
un papel significativo a desempeñar para manejar estos riesgos centråndose en sus
funciones de estabilizaciĂłn y distributivas. Por otra parte, proponemos un sistema
de diversas medidas para cada funciĂłn. Finalmente, demostramos que los paĂses
latinoamericanos no sufren de constreñimiento del financiamiento para aplicar
nuestras recomendaciones.Cet article se propose dâĂ©tudier les rĂ©ponses offertes par la politique fiscale en
AmĂ©rique latine dans la situation actuelle « dâatterrissage en douceur ». En fait,
il apparaßt que la région est exposée à un risque de choc externe de pays développés
et la Chine Ă un risque politique. Dans ces conditions, la politique fiscale a un
rÎle important à jouer pour gérer ces risques en se centrant sur ses fonctions de
stabilisation et de distribution. En outre, nous proposons un systĂšme de plusieurs
mesures pour chaque fonction. Enfin, nous dĂ©montrons que les pays latino-amĂ©ricains ne souffrent pas de contrainte du financement pour appliquer nos recommandations.The purpose of this article is to study the responses offered by the fiscal policy in Latin America in the current situation of âsoft landingâ. Indeed, it appears that the region is exposed to a risk of negative external shock from developed countries and China and to a specific-country political risk. In these conditions, fiscal policy has a significant role to play to manage these risks by focusing on its stabilization anddistributive functions. Moreover, we propose a set of different measures for each function. Finally, we show that Latin American countries do not suffer of financing constraint to apply our proposals
- âŠ