Complex interplay between intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of long-term survival trends in southern elephant seals

BACKGROUND: Determining the relative contribution of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to fluctuations in population size, trends and demographic composition is analytically complex. It is often only possible to examine the combined effects of these factors through measurements made over long periods, spanning an array of population densities or levels of food availability. Using age-structured mark-recapture models and datasets spanning five decades (1950–1999), and two periods of differing relative population density, we estimated age-specific probabilities of survival and examined the combined effects of population density and environmental conditions on juvenile survival of southern elephant seals at Macquarie Island. RESULTS: First-year survival decreased with density during the period of highest population size, and survival increased during years when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) anomaly (deviation from a 50-year mean) during the mother's previous foraging trip to sea was positive (i.e., El Niño). However, when environmental stochasticity and density were considered together, the effect of density on first-year survival effectively disappeared. Ignoring density effects also leads to models placing too much emphasis on the environmental conditions prevailing during the naïve pup's first year at sea. CONCLUSION: Our analyses revealed that both the state of the environment and population density combine to modify juvenile survival, but that the degree to which these processes contributed to the variation observed was interactive and complex. This underlines the importance of evaluating the relative contribution of both the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that regulate animal populations because false conclusions regarding the importance of population regulation may be reached if they are examined in isolation

A simulation study of diagnostics for bias in non-probability samples

A non-probability sampling mechanism is likely to bias estimates of parameters with respect to a target population of interest. This bias poses a unique challenge when selection is \u27non-ignorable\u27, i.e. dependent upon the unobserved outcome of interest, since it is then undetectable and thus cannot be ameliorated. We extend a simulation study by Nishimura et al. [International Statistical Review, 84, 43--62 (2016)], adding a recently published statistic, the so-called \u27standardized measure of unadjusted bias\u27, which explicitly quantifies the extent of bias under the assumption that a specified amount of non-ignorable selection exists. Our findings suggest that this new sensitivity diagnostic is considerably correlated with, and more predictive of, the true, unknown extent of selection bias than other diagnostics, even when the underlying assumed level of non-ignorability is incorrect

New Perspectives on Socialism and Human Rights in East Central Europe since 1945

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Brill via the DOI in this recordIn recent years, the study of human rights history has expanded beyond Western-centered narratives, though the role of Eastern European state socialism and socialists both on human rights concepts and politics is still underrated. This introductory essay synthesizes recent research of the role of Eastern Bloc socialist states in shaping the emergence of the post-war human rights system and the implications of this new research on the history of the Helsinki Accords as well as the collapse of state socialism in 1989/91. Ultimately, state socialist actors were not merely human rights antagonists, but contributed to shaping the international arena and human rights politics, motivated both strategically as well as ideologically. And the Eastern Bloc was not merely a region that passively absorbed the idea of human rights from the West, but a site where human rights ideas where articulated and internationalized as well as contested.Leverhulme Trus

Does self-monitoring reduce blood pressure? Meta-analysis with meta-regression of randomized controlled trials

Introduction. Self-monitoring of blood pressure (BP) is an increasingly common part of hypertension management. The objectives of this systematic review were to evaluate the systolic and diastolic BP reduction, and achievement of target BP, associated with self-monitoring. Methods. MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, database of abstracts of clinical effectiveness, the health technology assessment database, the NHS economic evaluation database, and the TRIP database were searched for studies where the intervention included self-monitoring of BP and the outcome was change in office/ambulatory BP or proportion with controlled BP. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Meta-analysis using a random effects model was combined with meta-regression to investigate heterogeneity in effect sizes. Results. A total of 25 eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (27 comparisons) were identified. Office systolic BP (20 RCTs, 21 comparisons, 5,898 patients) and diastolic BP (23 RCTs, 25 comparisons, 6,038 patients) were significantly reduced in those who self-monitored compared to usual care (weighted mean difference (WMD) systolic −3.82 mmHg (95% confidence interval −5.61 to −2.03), diastolic −1.45 mmHg (−1.95 to −0.94)). Self-monitoring increased the chance of meeting office BP targets (12 RCTs, 13 comparisons, 2,260 patients, relative risk = 1.09 (1.02 to 1.16)). There was significant heterogeneity between studies for all three comparisons, which could be partially accounted for by the use of additional co-interventions. Conclusion. Self-monitoring reduces blood pressure by a small but significant amount. Meta-regression could only account for part of the observed heterogeneity

Quantifying short-term dynamics of Parkinson's disease using self-reported symptom data from an internet social network

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales

Structural and biochemical characterization of the exopolysaccharide deacetylase Agd3 required for Aspergillus fumigatus biofilm formation

The exopolysaccharide galactosaminogalactan (GAG) is an important virulence factor of the fungal pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus. Deletion of a gene encoding a putative deacetylase, Agd3, leads to defects in GAG deacetylation, biofilm formation, and virulence. Here, we show that Agd3 deacetylates GAG in a metal-dependent manner, and is the founding member of carbohydrate esterase family CE18. The active site is formed by four catalytic motifs that are essential for activity. The structure of Agd3 includes an elongated substrate-binding cleft formed by a carbohydrate binding module (CBM) that is the founding member of CBM family 87. Agd3 homologues are encoded in previously unidentified putative bacterial exopolysaccharide biosynthetic operons and in other fungal genomes. The exopolysaccharide galactosaminogalactan (GAG) is an important virulence factor of the fungal pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus. Here, the authors study an A. fumigatus enzyme that deacetylates GAG in a metal-dependent manner and constitutes a founding member of a new carbohydrate esterase family.Bio-organic Synthesi

Directed differentiation of human pluripotent stem sells for the generation of high-order kidney organoids

Our understanding in the inherent properties of human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) have made possible the development of differentiation procedures to generate three-dimensional tissue-like cultures, so-called organoids. Here we detail a stepwise methodology to generate kidney organoids from hPSCs. This is achieved through direct differentiation of hPSCs in two-dimensional monolayer culture toward the posterior primitive streak fate, followed by induction of intermediate mesoderm-committed cells, which are further aggregated and cultured in three-dimensions to generate kidney organoids containing segmented nephron-like structures in a process that lasts 20 days. We also provide a concise description on how to assess renal commitment during the time course of kidney organoid generation. This includes the use of flow cytometry and immunocytochemistry analyses for the detection of specific renal differentiation markers

A review of RCTs in four medical journals to assess the use of imputation to overcome missing data in quality of life outcomes

Background: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are perceived as the gold-standard method for evaluating healthcare interventions, and increasingly include quality of life (QoL) measures. The observed results are susceptible to bias if a substantial proportion of outcome data are missing. The review aimed to determine whether imputation was used to deal with missing QoL outcomes. Methods: A random selection of 285 RCTs published during 2005/6 in the British Medical Journal, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine and Journal of American Medical Association were identified. Results: QoL outcomes were reported in 61 (21%) trials. Six (10%) reported having no missing data, 20 (33%) reported ≤ 10% missing, eleven (18%) 11%–20% missing, and eleven (18%) reported >20% missing. Missingness was unclear in 13 (21%). Missing data were imputed in 19 (31%) of the 61 trials. Imputation was part of the primary analysis in 13 trials, but a sensitivity analysis in six. Last value carried forward was used in 12 trials and multiple imputation in two. Following imputation, the most common analysis method was analysis of covariance (10 trials). Conclusion: The majority of studies did not impute missing data and carried out a complete-case analysis. For those studies that did impute missing data, researchers tended to prefer simpler methods of imputation, despite more sophisticated methods being available.The Health Services Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorate. Shona Fielding is also currently funded by the Chief Scientist Office on a Research Training Fellowship (CZF/1/31)

Capture the fracture: a best practice framework and global campaign to break the fragility fracture cycle

Summary The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) Capture the Fracture Campaign aims to support implementation of Fracture Liaison Services (FLS) throughout the world. Introduction FLS have been shown to close the ubiquitous secondary fracture prevention care gap, ensuring that fragility fracture sufferers receive appropriate assessment and intervention to reduce future fracture risk. Methods Capture the Fracture has developed internationally endorsed standards for best practice, will facilitate change at the national level to drive adoption of FLS and increase awareness of the challenges and opportunities presented by secondary fracture prevention to key stakeholders. The Best Practice Framework (BPF) sets an international benchmark for FLS, which defines essential and aspirational elements of service delivery. Results The BPF has been reviewed by leading experts from many countries and subject to beta-testing to ensure that it is internationally relevant and fit-for-purpose. The BPF will also serve as a measurement tool for IOF to award ‘Capture the Fracture Best Practice Recognition’ to celebrate successful FLS worldwide and drive service development in areas of unmet need. The Capture the Fracture website will provide a suite of resources related to FLS and secondary fracture prevention, which will be updated as new materials become available. A mentoring programme will enable those in the early stages of development of FLS to learn from colleagues elsewhere that have achieved Best Practice Recognition. A grant programme is in development to aid clinical systems which require financial assistance to establish FLS in their localities. Conclusion Nearly half a billion people will reach retirement age during the next 20 years. IOF has developed Capture the Fracture because this is the single most important thing that can be done to directly improve patient care, of both women and men, and reduce the spiralling fracture-related care costs worldwide.</p