A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees

Many fruit and nut trees must fulfill a chilling requirement to break their winter dormancy and resume normal growth in spring. Several models exist for quantifying winter chill, and growers and researchers often tacitly assume that the choice of model is not important and estimates of species chilling requirements are valid across growing regions. To test this assumption, Safe Winter Chill (the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of years) was calculated for 5,078 weather stations around the world, using the Dynamic Model [in Chill Portions (CP)], the Chilling Hours (CH) Model and the Utah Model [Utah Chill Units (UCU)]. Distributions of the ratios between different winter chill metrics were mapped on a global scale. These ratios should be constant if the models were strictly proportional. Ratios between winter chill metrics varied substantially, with the CH/CP ratio ranging between 0 and 34, the UCU/CP ratio between −155 and +20 and the UCU/CH ratio between −10 and +5. The models are thus not proportional, and chilling requirements determined in a given location may not be valid elsewhere. The Utah Model produced negative winter chill totals in many Subtropical regions, where it does not seem to be useful. Mean annual temperature and daily temperature range influenced all winter chill ratios, but explained only between 12 and 27% of the variation. Data on chilling requirements should always be amended with information on the location and experimental conditions of the study in which they were determined, ideally including site-specific conversion factors between winter chill models. This would greatly facilitate the transfer of such information across growing regions, and help prepare growers for the impact of climate change

Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula

Fruit production systems that rely on winter chill for breaking of dormancy might be vulnerable to climatic change. We investigated decreases in the number of winter chilling hours (0–7.2°C) in four mountain oases of Oman, a marginal area for the production of fruit trees with chilling requirements. Winter chill was calculated from long-term hourly temperature records. These were generated based on the correlation of hourly temperature measurements in the oases with daylength and daily minimum and maximum temperatures recorded at a nearby weather station. Winter chill was estimated for historic temperature records between 1983 and 2008, as well as for three sets of synthetic 100-year weather records, generated to represent historic conditions, and climatic changes likely to occur within the next 30 years (temperatures elevated by 1°C and 2°C). Our analysis detected a decrease in the numbers of chilling hours in high-elevation oases by an average of 1.2–9.5 h/year between 1983 and 2008, a period during which, according to the scenario analysis, winter chill was sufficient for most important species in most years in the highest oasis. In the two climate change scenarios, pomegranates, the most important tree crop, received insufficient chilling in 13% and 75% of years, respectively. While production of most traditional fruit trees is marginal today, with trees barely fulfilling their chilling requirements, such production might become impossible in the near future. Similar developments are likely to affect other fruit production regions around the world

Chill unit accumulation and necessity of rest breaking agents in South African table grape production regions

Cultivation of table grapes in warm regions of South Africa is complicated by problems associated with delayed and uneven bud break. Rest breaking agents, mainly hydrogen cyanamide, are applied to overcome these problems. The chill unit accumulation of the five major table grape production regions in South Africa was compared with the minimum chilling required to obtain a high bud break percentage (>80%) and even bud break, defined as 200 hours between 0 and 10 ∘C, or 400 hours at 3 ∘C. The effect of chilling accumulation (0, 50, 100, 200, 400 and 800 hours at 3 ∘C) on bud break of dormant cuttings of three table grape cultivars was investigated in controlled studies in a glass house over a three year period. Cuttings used in the study were collected from commercial vineyards in Saron in the Berg River Valley (representing a warm region) and the Hex River Valley (representing a cool region). Sultanina and Sugraone cuttings from Saron required at least 200 hours at 3 ∘C to obtain a final bud break % of 80%+. A final bud break % of 80%+ was obtained with all Sultanina cuttings from Hex River Valley. Treatments receiving 400 and 800 hours at 3 ∘C, showed the most rapid rate of bud break. Prime cuttings collected from Saron, receiving 0, 50, 100 and 400 hours at 3 ∘C, showed a more rapid bud break process, as well as a higher final bud break % compared to Sugraone and Sultanina. It seems as if Prime has a lower chilling requirement than the other two cultivars. The model of Dokoozlian for quantifying chilling status is applicable to Saron and the Hex River Valley. The necessity of using rest breaking chemicals in the Saron area, for obtaining a high bud break % and even bud break, was confirmed. The Hex River Valley receives sufficient chilling temperatures to obtain a high bud break %, but rest breaking chemicals can be used to obtain more even bud break. The use of hydrogen cyanamide for improved and even bud break is a general practice in regions that receive less than 400 chill units. In regions receiving more than 400 chill units, several producers still use hydrogen cyanamide for even bud break. It is recommended that the chilling requirement of economic important cultivars should be determined simultaneously in field trials and glass house trials for the major table grape production regions of South Africa, to verify the necessity of using rest breaking chemicals for specific cultivars in specific regions