Προειδοποιήσεις έναρξης των μειώσεων Forbush της έντασης της κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας με δεδομένα μετρητών νετρονίων και δορυφόρων.

Σωμάτια πολύ υψηλών ενεργειών που καταφθάνουν στη Γη από πηγές εκτός της ηλιόσφαιρας αποτελούν την κοσμική ακτινοβολία. Ένα από τα σημαντικότερα επεισόδια του Γεωδιαστημικού Περιβάλλοντος είναι οι μειώσεις Forbush της έντασης της κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας που είναι απότομες μειώσεις της, με διάρκεια από μερικές μέχρι δέκα ημέρες. Συνδέονται με αιφνίδιες μεταβολές συνθηκών του Διαστημικού Καιρού, που στη συνέχεια επηρεάζουν και τις ανθρώπινες δραστηριότητες. Αντικείμενο της παρούσας διδακτορικής διατριβής ήταν η μελέτη των χαρακτηριστικών των μειώσεων Forbush της έντασης της κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας που είτε ήταν συνδεδεμένες με μια αιφνίδια έναρξη μαγνητικής καταιγίδας (Sudden Storm Commencement – SSC), είτε οφείλονταν σε ταχέως κινούμενες ροές ηλιακού ανέμου και των αντίστοιχων ηλιακών και διαπλανητικών παραμέτρων και η διερεύνηση εμφάνισης προειδοποιητικών σημάτων, πριν από την έναρξή τους. Είναι σημαντικό ότι για πρώτη φορά εντοπίστηκαν προειδοποιήσεις και στην περίπτωση των μειώσεων Forbush που δεν συνδέονται με κρουστικά κύματα. Δεδομένα έντασης κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας, από το έτος 1969 ως το έτος 2019, αντλήθηκαν από την βάση FEID που περιλαμβάνει περίπου 7000 επεισόδια, σε συνδυασμό με τα αντίστοιχα δεδομένα των ηλιακών και διαπλανητικών παραμέτρων όπως αυτά έχουν καταγραφεί από τους δορυφόρους. Δύο τεχνικές, η Global Survey Method και η Ring of Stations Method βοήθησαν αφ΄ενός στον προσδιορισμό των υπό μελέτη επεισοδίων και αφετέρου στην μελέτη της ύπαρξης ή όχι προειδοποιητικών σημάτων. Ένα μεγάλο ποσοστό των μειώσεων αυτών εμφανίζουν προειδοποιητικά σήματα, δηλαδή προ-αυξήσεις και/ή προ-μειώσεις της κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας, με το είδος των σημάτων αυτών να εξαρτάται από τις διαπλανητικές συνθήκες και όχι μόνο από την εμφάνιση ή όχι SSC πριν την έναρξη της εκάστοτε μείωσης.High energetic particles that reach Earth from sources outside the heliosphere constitute cosmic rays. One of the most important phenomena of the Geospace Environment is the Forbush decreases of the cosmic ray intensity, which are abrupt and sharp decreases, lasting from a few to ten days. They are associated with sudden changes in Space Weather conditions, which affect human activities. The subject of this doctoral thesis was the study of the characteristics of Forbush decreases of the cosmic ray intensity that were either associated with a sudden start of a magnetic storm (Sudden Storm Commencement – SSC) or were due to fast-moving solar wind flows, and the corresponding solar and interplanetary parameters and the investigation of a possible appearance of precursory signals, before their start. It is important that for the first-time precursors were also detected in the case of Forbush decreases that were not associated with shock waves. Cosmic ray intensity data, from 1969 to 2019, were drawn from the FEID database comprising about 7000 effects, combined with the corresponding data of solar and interplanetary parameters as recorded by satellites. Two techniques, the Global Survey Method and the Ring of Stations Method helped on the one hand to determine the under study Forbush decreases and on the other hand to study the existence or not of precursory signals. A large percentage of these decreases show precursory signals, i.e. pre-increases and/or pre-decreases of cosmic ray intensity, with the type of these signals depending on the interplanetary conditions and not only on the appearance or not of SSC before the start of each decrease

Precursory signals of Forbush decreases with and without shock wave

Many previous studies have shown that before the beginning of a Forbush Decrease (FD) of the cosmic ray intensity, a precursor signal can be observed. All these surveys were focused on FDs that are associated with a sudden storm com- mencement (SSC). In this work we demonstrate that precursors could also be observed in events without a SSC that is determined by an abrupt increase of the interplanetary magnetic field. The type of precursory signals and their diversity among the events are the main purpose of this study. We try to figure out similarities and differences on the signals and the associated events from both categories in the last fifty years, from 1969 to 2019, using the same selection criteria of the under investigation FDs. Simultaneously the orientation of the upcoming solar disturbances in comparison to the way they configure the increase of the interplanetary magnetic field and create these signals are discussed

The updated GLE alert system by ANEMOS

Ground level enhancements (GLEs) of cosmic radiation are the result of solar energetic particles (SEPs) arriving at the Earth, potentially causing major damage to technological systems, but also posing a threat for human health. Intense SEPs, such as the GLE events, can influence the radiation exposure of aircrafts and consequently increase the radiation dose on human crew, but also have an impact on satellites and affect the design of space missions, i.e electronic devices onboard the satellite platforms etc. Therefore, predicting such events is challenging and one of the most important aspects of space weather research. In this work the updated GLE Alert++ System of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.) implemented by the Athens Cosmic Ray Group of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA) is being presented. Moreover, the innovations of the updated system in relation to the previous version of the GLE Alert Plus are introduced. Finally, the most recent and the first of solar cycle 25 GLE event, GLE73, is discussed. This event was registered by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. An accurate alert was issued successfully by the ESA R-ESC federated product GLE Alert Plus, as well as by the updated GLE Alert++ System of the NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. It should be emphasized that GLE Alert++ signal by NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. was issued 45 minutes earlier than the one issued by GOES satellites

Uncertainty management in regulatory and health technology assessment decision-making on drugs: guidance of the HTAi-DIA Working Group

ObjectivesUncertainty is a fundamental component of decision making regarding access to and pricing and reimbursement of drugs. The context-specific interpretation and mitigation of uncertainty remain major challenges for decision makers. Following the 2021 HTAi Global Policy Forum, a cross-sectoral, interdisciplinary HTAi-DIA Working Group (WG) was initiated to develop guidance to support stakeholder deliberation on the systematic identification and mitigation of uncertainties in the regulatory-HTA interface. MethodsSix online discussions among WG members (Dec 2021-Sep 2022) who examined the output of a scoping review, two literature-based case studies and a survey; application of the initial guidance to a real-world case study; and two international conference panel discussions. ResultsThe WG identified key concepts, clustered into twelve building blocks that were collectively perceived to define uncertainty: "unavailable," "inaccurate," "conflicting," "not understandable," "random variation," "information," "prediction," "impact," "risk," "relevance," "context," and "judgment." These were converted into a checklist to explain and define whether any issue constitutes a decision-relevant uncertainty. A taxonomy of domains in which uncertainty may exist within the regulatory-HTA interface was developed to facilitate categorization. The real-world case study was used to demonstrate how the guidance may facilitate deliberation between stakeholders and where additional guidance development may be needed. ConclusionsThe systematic approach taken for the identification of uncertainties in this guidance has the potential to facilitate understanding of uncertainty and its management across different stakeholders involved in drug development and evaluation. This can improve consistency and transparency throughout decision processes. To further support uncertainty management, linkage to suitable mitigation strategies is necessary

Measuring the burden of infodemics : summary of the methods and results of the fifth WHO infodemic management conference

Background: An infodemic is excess information, including false or misleading information, that spreads in digital and physical environments during a public health emergency. The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by an unprecedented global infodemic that has led to confusion about the benefits of medical and public health interventions, with substantial impact on risk-taking and health-seeking behaviors, eroding trust in health authorities and compromising the effectiveness of public health responses and policies. Standardized measures are needed to quantify the harmful impacts of the infodemic in a systematic and methodologically robust manner, as well as harmonizing highly divergent approaches currently explored for this purpose. This can serve as a foundation for a systematic, evidence-based approach to monitoring, identifying, and mitigating future infodemic harms in emergency preparedness and prevention. Objective: In this paper, we summarize the Fifth World Health Organization (WHO) Infodemic Management Conference structure, proceedings, outcomes, and proposed actions seeking to identify the interdisciplinary approaches and frameworks needed to enable the measurement of the burden of infodemics. Methods: An iterative human-centered design (HCD) approach and concept mapping were used to facilitate focused discussions and allow for the generation of actionable outcomes and recommendations. The discussions included 86 participants representing diverse scientific disciplines and health authorities from 28 countries across all WHO regions, along with observers from civil society and global public health–implementing partners. A thematic map capturing the concepts matching the key contributing factors to the public health burden of infodemics was used throughout the conference to frame and contextualize discussions. Five key areas for immediate action were identified. Results: The 5 key areas for the development of metrics to assess the burden of infodemics and associated interventions included (1) developing standardized definitions and ensuring the adoption thereof; (2) improving the map of concepts influencing the burden of infodemics; (3) conducting a review of evidence, tools, and data sources; (4) setting up a technical working group; and (5) addressing immediate priorities for postpandemic recovery and resilience building. The summary report consolidated group input toward a common vocabulary with standardized terms, concepts, study designs, measures, and tools to estimate the burden of infodemics and the effectiveness of infodemic management interventions. Conclusions: Standardizing measurement is the basis for documenting the burden of infodemics on health systems and population health during emergencies. Investment is needed into the development of practical, affordable, evidence-based, and systematic methods that are legally and ethically balanced for monitoring infodemics; generating diagnostics, infodemic insights, and recommendations; and developing interventions, action-oriented guidance, policies, support options, mechanisms, and tools for infodemic managers and emergency program managers.peer-reviewe

Precursory signal of the forbush decreases of the cosmic ray intensity by using neutron monitors and satellites data

High energetic particles that reach Earth from sources outside the heliosphere constitute cosmic rays. One of the most important phenomena of the Geospace Environment is the Forbush decreases of the cosmic ray intensity, which are abrupt and sharp decreases, lasting from a few to ten days. They are associated with sudden changes in Space Weather conditions, which affect human activities. The subject of this doctoral thesis was the study of the characteristics of Forbush decreases of the cosmic ray intensity that were either associated with a sudden start of a magnetic storm (Sudden Storm Commencement – SSC) or were due to fast-moving solar wind flows, and the corresponding solar and interplanetary parameters and the investigation of a possible appearance of precursory signals, before their start. It is important that for the first-time precursors were also detected in the case of Forbush decreases that were not associated with shock waves. Cosmic ray intensity data, from 1969 to 2019, were drawn from the FEID database comprising about 7000 effects, combined with the corresponding data of solar and interplanetary parameters as recorded by satellites. Two techniques, the Global Survey Method and the Ring of Stations Method helped on the one hand to determine the under study Forbush decreases and on the other hand to study the existence or not of precursory signals. A large percentage of these decreases show precursory signals, i.e. pre-increases and/or pre-decreases of cosmic ray intensity, with the type of these signals depending on the interplanetary conditions and not only on the appearance or not of SSC before the start of each decrease.Σωμάτια πολύ υψηλών ενεργειών που καταφθάνουν στη Γη από πηγές εκτός της ηλιόσφαιρας αποτελούν την κοσμική ακτινοβολία. Ένα από τα σημαντικότερα επεισόδια του Γεωδιαστημικού Περιβάλλοντος είναι οι μειώσεις Forbush της έντασης της κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας που είναι απότομες μειώσεις της, με διάρκεια από μερικές μέχρι δέκα ημέρες. Συνδέονται με αιφνίδιες μεταβολές συνθηκών του Διαστημικού Καιρού, που στη συνέχεια επηρεάζουν και τις ανθρώπινες δραστηριότητες. Αντικείμενο της παρούσας διδακτορικής διατριβής ήταν η μελέτη των χαρακτηριστικών των μειώσεων Forbush της έντασης της κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας που είτε ήταν συνδεδεμένες με μια αιφνίδια έναρξη μαγνητικής καταιγίδας (Sudden Storm Commencement – SSC), είτε οφείλονταν σε ταχέως κινούμενες ροές ηλιακού ανέμου και των αντίστοιχων ηλιακών και διαπλανητικών παραμέτρων και η διερεύνηση εμφάνισης προειδοποιητικών σημάτων, πριν από την έναρξή τους. Είναι σημαντικό ότι για πρώτη φορά εντοπίστηκαν προειδοποιήσεις και στην περίπτωση των μειώσεων Forbush που δεν συνδέονται με κρουστικά κύματα. Δεδομένα έντασης κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας, από το έτος 1969 ως το έτος 2019, αντλήθηκαν από την βάση FEID που περιλαμβάνει περίπου 7000 επεισόδια, σε συνδυασμό με τα αντίστοιχα δεδομένα των ηλιακών και διαπλανητικών παραμέτρων όπως αυτά έχουν καταγραφεί από τους δορυφόρους. Δύο τεχνικές, η Global Survey Method και η Ring of Stations Method βοήθησαν αφ΄ενός στον προσδιορισμό των υπό μελέτη επεισοδίων και αφετέρου στην μελέτη της ύπαρξης ή όχι προειδοποιητικών σημάτων. Ένα μεγάλο ποσοστό των μειώσεων αυτών εμφανίζουν προειδοποιητικά σήματα, δηλαδή προ-αυξήσεις και/ή προ-μειώσεις της κοσμικής ακτινοβολίας, με το είδος των σημάτων αυτών να εξαρτάται από τις διαπλανητικές συνθήκες και όχι μόνο από την εμφάνιση ή όχι SSC πριν την έναρξη της εκάστοτε μείωσης

The Updated Version of the A.Ne.Mo.S. GLE Alert System: The Case of the Ground-Level Enhancement GLE73 on 28 October 2021

A ground-level enhancement (GLE) event is a sudden increase in cosmic ray intensity originated by solar sources and recorded by ground-based detectors. GLEs are invariably associated with large solar flares that can release and accelerate solar particles at high energies. The minimum kinetic energy of particles reaching the Earth’s surface is >433 MeV at sea level and about 300 MeV/n at high-mountain altitude of about 3000 m a.s.l. Even though these abrupt events linked to solar activity are quite rare, they can have a great impact on technological systems and human health when recorded. Therefore, the accurate and effective prognosis of such events is of great importance. In this paper, an overview of the most recently recorded GLE event and the first of solar cycle 25, i.e., GLE73, as well as a post-event analysis is presented. GLE73 was detected on 28 October 2021 and was associated with the active region AR12887 on the central part of the solar disk, which produced an X1.0 solar flare. The event was registered by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. An accurate alert was issued successfully by the ESA R-ESC federated product GLE Alert Plus, as well as the updated GLE Alert++ System of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.). It should be emphasized that the GLE Alert++ signal by NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. was issued 45 min earlier than the one issued by GOES. A short description and the advantages of this last system are provided

The Updated Version of the A.Ne.Mo.S. GLE Alert System: The Case of the Ground-Level Enhancement GLE73 on 28 October 2021

A ground-level enhancement (GLE) event is a sudden increase in cosmic ray intensity originated by solar sources and recorded by ground-based detectors. GLEs are invariably associated with large solar flares that can release and accelerate solar particles at high energies. The minimum kinetic energy of particles reaching the Earth’s surface is >433 MeV at sea level and about 300 MeV/n at high-mountain altitude of about 3000 m a.s.l. Even though these abrupt events linked to solar activity are quite rare, they can have a great impact on technological systems and human health when recorded. Therefore, the accurate and effective prognosis of such events is of great importance. In this paper, an overview of the most recently recorded GLE event and the first of solar cycle 25, i.e., GLE73, as well as a post-event analysis is presented. GLE73 was detected on 28 October 2021 and was associated with the active region AR12887 on the central part of the solar disk, which produced an X1.0 solar flare. The event was registered by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. An accurate alert was issued successfully by the ESA R-ESC federated product GLE Alert Plus, as well as the updated GLE Alert++ System of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.). It should be emphasized that the GLE Alert++ signal by NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. was issued 45 min earlier than the one issued by GOES. A short description and the advantages of this last system are provided

Measuring the Burden of Infodemics: Summary of the Methods and Results of the Fifth WHO Infodemic Management Conference.

BACKGROUND: An infodemic is excess information, including false or misleading information, that spreads in digital and physical environments during a public health emergency. The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by an unprecedented global infodemic that has led to confusion about the benefits of medical and public health interventions, with substantial impact on risk-taking and health-seeking behaviors, eroding trust in health authorities and compromising the effectiveness of public health responses and policies. Standardized measures are needed to quantify the harmful impacts of the infodemic in a systematic and methodologically robust manner, as well as harmonizing highly divergent approaches currently explored for this purpose. This can serve as a foundation for a systematic, evidence-based approach to monitoring, identifying, and mitigating future infodemic harms in emergency preparedness and prevention. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we summarize the Fifth World Health Organization (WHO) Infodemic Management Conference structure, proceedings, outcomes, and proposed actions seeking to identify the interdisciplinary approaches and frameworks needed to enable the measurement of the burden of infodemics. METHODS: An iterative human-centered design (HCD) approach and concept mapping were used to facilitate focused discussions and allow for the generation of actionable outcomes and recommendations. The discussions included 86 participants representing diverse scientific disciplines and health authorities from 28 countries across all WHO regions, along with observers from civil society and global public health-implementing partners. A thematic map capturing the concepts matching the key contributing factors to the public health burden of infodemics was used throughout the conference to frame and contextualize discussions. Five key areas for immediate action were identified. RESULTS: The 5 key areas for the development of metrics to assess the burden of infodemics and associated interventions included (1) developing standardized definitions and ensuring the adoption thereof; (2) improving the map of concepts influencing the burden of infodemics; (3) conducting a review of evidence, tools, and data sources; (4) setting up a technical working group; and (5) addressing immediate priorities for postpandemic recovery and resilience building. The summary report consolidated group input toward a common vocabulary with standardized terms, concepts, study designs, measures, and tools to estimate the burden of infodemics and the effectiveness of infodemic management interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Standardizing measurement is the basis for documenting the burden of infodemics on health systems and population health during emergencies. Investment is needed into the development of practical, affordable, evidence-based, and systematic methods that are legally and ethically balanced for monitoring infodemics; generating diagnostics, infodemic insights, and recommendations; and developing interventions, action-oriented guidance, policies, support options, mechanisms, and tools for infodemic managers and emergency program managers

Measuring the Burden of Infodemics: Summary of the Methods and Results of the Fifth WHO Infodemic Management Conference.

BACKGROUND: An infodemic is excess information, including false or misleading information, that spreads in digital and physical environments during a public health emergency. The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by an unprecedented global infodemic that has led to confusion about the benefits of medical and public health interventions, with substantial impact on risk-taking and health-seeking behaviors, eroding trust in health authorities and compromising the effectiveness of public health responses and policies. Standardized measures are needed to quantify the harmful impacts of the infodemic in a systematic and methodologically robust manner, as well as harmonizing highly divergent approaches currently explored for this purpose. This can serve as a foundation for a systematic, evidence-based approach to monitoring, identifying, and mitigating future infodemic harms in emergency preparedness and prevention. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we summarize the Fifth World Health Organization (WHO) Infodemic Management Conference structure, proceedings, outcomes, and proposed actions seeking to identify the interdisciplinary approaches and frameworks needed to enable the measurement of the burden of infodemics. METHODS: An iterative human-centered design (HCD) approach and concept mapping were used to facilitate focused discussions and allow for the generation of actionable outcomes and recommendations. The discussions included 86 participants representing diverse scientific disciplines and health authorities from 28 countries across all WHO regions, along with observers from civil society and global public health-implementing partners. A thematic map capturing the concepts matching the key contributing factors to the public health burden of infodemics was used throughout the conference to frame and contextualize discussions. Five key areas for immediate action were identified. RESULTS: The 5 key areas for the development of metrics to assess the burden of infodemics and associated interventions included (1) developing standardized definitions and ensuring the adoption thereof; (2) improving the map of concepts influencing the burden of infodemics; (3) conducting a review of evidence, tools, and data sources; (4) setting up a technical working group; and (5) addressing immediate priorities for postpandemic recovery and resilience building. The summary report consolidated group input toward a common vocabulary with standardized terms, concepts, study designs, measures, and tools to estimate the burden of infodemics and the effectiveness of infodemic management interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Standardizing measurement is the basis for documenting the burden of infodemics on health systems and population health during emergencies. Investment is needed into the development of practical, affordable, evidence-based, and systematic methods that are legally and ethically balanced for monitoring infodemics; generating diagnostics, infodemic insights, and recommendations; and developing interventions, action-oriented guidance, policies, support options, mechanisms, and tools for infodemic managers and emergency program managers