Forecasting New Housing Starts Using Real GDP and Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

This research analyzes the short and long run relationships between new housing starts (HOUS), real gross domestic product (RGDP), and average 30-year fixed mortgage rates (AFM) over the period 1972:Q2 to 2018:Q3 in order to forecast housing starts for the fourth quarter of 2018. After concluding all three series exhibit unit roots, a cointegrating regression was used to test for a long run relationship between the variables. The hypothesis that HOUS, RGDP, and AFM are not cointegrated was rejected at the 5% level, indicating they maintain a long run relationship. Next, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated and used to forecast HOUS for the fourth quarter of 2018. The forecasted value of 1,333,000 new housing units compares favorably to the actual value of 1,151,000 new units with a forecast error of less than 15%

Synthesis of unnatural enone-containing α-amino acids: precursors to chiral N-heterocycles

A fast and efficient synthetic route was developed for the synthesis of a novel class of enone-containing alpha-amino acid. An amino acid-derived beta-ketophosphonate ester was subjected to Horner-Wadsworth-Emmons conditions using a variety of aldehydes to produce a diverse library of alpha,beta-unsaturated amino acids. E-Configured enone-containing amino acids were also deprotected using a two-stage approach to give the parent alpha-amino acids. A minor modification to the route enabled the synthesis of Z-configured enones via the Still-Gennari reaction. A small library of Z-enones was produced using various aldehydes. Enone-functionalised alpha-amino acids were employed as substrates for an intramolecular cyclisation reaction to generate 6-substituted-4-oxopipecolic acids. A diastereoselective one-pot reductive amination/cyclisation strategy was developed to gain access to the anti-diastereomer of the chiral N-heterocycles. A small selection of 6-substituted-4-oxopipecolic acids was synthesised. 6-Substituted-4-oxopipecolic acids were also reduced diastereoselectively to generate 4- hydroxypipecolic acid analogues

Egg and larval ecology of anchovy (Engraulis capensis) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the Southern Benguela ecosystem

Bibliography: pages 118-131.Temporal and spatial changes in the abundance and distribution of anchovy and sardine eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem were investigated during 14 cruises over 2 consecutive summer upwelling seasons as part of the South African Sardine and Anchovy Recruitment programme (SA-SARP). Cruises were conducted each month between August 1993 and March 1994 (SARP I) and September 1994 and March 1995 (SARP II). Anchovy spawning was largely confined to the western Agulhas Bank, reaching a definite peak during spring (October and November). Sardine ·spawning extended up the west coast ·duiing·periods when anchovy spawning reached a peak on the western Agulhas Bank. However, sardine eggs were dense on the western Agulhas Bank during peak spawning activity which appears to be bimodal, reaching a peak in the early spring (August/September) and again in late summer (February). · Although the midshelf region on the W AB appeared to be the centre of both anchovy and ·sardine spawning in the southern Benguela ecosystem, these data suggest that anchovy and sardine spawning activity may be both spatially, and temporally separated to some extent. Mean anchovy egg densities on the W AB decreased by 53 % from 1993/94 to 1994/95 while a slight increase in mean sardine egg density (16 %) over the entire region was observed from one season to the next. Lloyd's Patchiness Index was used to investigate the distribution patterns of spawning products and the results showed that the distribution of both anchovy and sardine eggs and larvae was extremely patchy, but that the eggs of both species were more patchy than their larvae. Anchovy eggs were most abundant at sea surface temperatures ranging from 16-20°C. Changes in the extent of 16-l 9°C water (as a measure of spawning habitat) and the abundance of large copepods within this region reflect intra-annual changes in the intensity of anchovy spawning activity. Sardine eggs were found predominantly in water of between 14.5-21.5°C. The seasonal intensity of sardine spawning appears to vary independently of the area of 16-19°C water, but· a positive correlation between the spawning activity of sardine and the monthly chlorophyll a concentrations on the W AB suggests that spawning may be related to their feeding conditions. A comparison of egg and larval distributions with current features from selected months during SARP supports previous studies which indicate that the frontal jet plays an important role in the transport of the early life history stages of anchovy and sardine but that the position of such transport can vary between the 200 m and 500 m isobaths. Areas of possible egg loss included the W AB, the offshore currents which can develop west of the Cape Peninsula and the outer branch of the jet off Cape Columbine. However, there is evidence that onshore currents further north may transport the eggs back to the region of the jet. The monthly estimates of anchovy egg mortality were highly variable and imprecise and these results were probably due to a combination of small sample sizes and reduced egg abundances, usually encountered at the start and end of the anchovy spawning season. The annual estimates of anchovy egg mortality during November between 1984 and 1994 were positively correlated with the patchiness of anchovy eggs during the same cruises. The effect of cannibalism in areas where eggs are particularly dense was invoked as a possible explanation for this result. It was concluded that the spawning behaviour of anchovy and sardine may be influenced by sea surface temperatures, feeding conditions for adult fish and advective processes in the southern Benguela ecosystem and these factors were discussed in terms of their possible impact on recruitment

Underground Radio

The stories in Underground Radio tell of life in all its forms, be it organic, mechanical, or incorporeal. By making use of the short short story, this collection encompasses the various ways life rises and falls and rises again. "Ascension," the story of a woman who spends her afterlife as an elevator, captures this rising and falling literally; "The Time My Back was on Television" and the science fiction "Batch 49" explore other life arcs, like the rise to fame and the approach of life's end. For characters in this collection, life does not end at death: stories like "Valedictorian of the Afterlife" and "Slow Fade" explore the potential conflicts that arise in a life after death. Underground Radio broadcasts stories populated by characters experiencing and enduring all stages of real, surreal, or alternate life

International chicken trade and increased risk for introducing or reintroducing highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) to uninfected countries.

Every year billions of chickens are shipped thousands of miles around the globe in order to meet the ever increasing demands for this cheap and nutritious protein source. Unfortunately, transporting chickens internationally can also increase the chance for introducing zoonotic viruses, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) to new countries. Our study used a retrospective analysis of poultry trading data from 2003 through 2011 to assess the risk of H5N1 poultry infection in an importing country. We found that the risk of infection in an importing country increased by a factor of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.5) for every 10-fold increase in live chickens imported from countries experiencing at least one H5N1 poultry case during that year. These results suggest that the risk in a particular country can be significantly reduced if imports from countries experiencing an outbreak are decreased during the year of infection or if biosecurity measures such as screening, vaccination, and infection control practices are increased. These findings show that limiting trade of live chickens or increasing infection control practices during contagious periods may be an important step in reducing the spread of H5N1 and other emerging avian influenza viruses

Landau levels and magnetopolaron effect in dilute GaAs:N

The magnetic-field dependence of the energy spectrum of GaAs doped with nitrogen impurities is investigated. Our theoretical model is based on the phenomenological Band Anticrossing Model (BAC) which we extended in order to include magnetic field and electron - phonon interaction. Due to the highly localized nature of the nitrogen state, we find that the energy levels are very different from those of pure GaAs. The polaron correction results in a lower cyclotron resonance energy as compared to pure GaAs. The magneto-absorption spectrum exhibits series of asymmetric peaks close to the cyclotron energy

Synthesis and reactivity of 4-oxo-5-trimethylsilanyl derived α-amino acids

A Lewis-acid promoted one-carbon homologation of an aspartic acid semialdehyde with trimethylsilyldiazomethane has led to the efficient synthesis of two silicon-containing α-amino acids. The use of trimethylaluminium or catalytic tin(II) chloride gave novel 4-oxo-5-trimethylsilanyl derived amino acids in yields of 71–88%. An investigation into the reactivity of these highly functional α-amino acids showed that selective cleavage of the C–Si bond could be achieved under mild basic conditions to give a protected derivative of the naturally occurring amino acid, 4-oxo-l-norvaline. Alternatively, Peterson olefination with aryl or alkyl aldehydes resulted in the formation of E-enone derived α-amino acids

Switching the stereochemical outcome of 6-endo-trig cyclizations; Synthesis of 2,6-Cis-6-substituted 4-oxopipecolic acids

A base-mediated 6-endo-trig cyclization of readily accessible enone-derived α-amino acids has been developed for the direct synthesis of novel 2,6-cis-6- substituted-4-oxo-L-pipecolic acids. A range of aliphatic and aryl side chains were tolerated by this mild procedure to give the target compounds in good overall yields. Molecular modeling of the 6-endo-trig cyclization allowed some insight as to how these compounds were formed, with the enolate intermediate generated via an equilibrium process, followed by irreversible tautomerization/neutralization providing the driving force for product formation. Stereoselective reduction and deprotection of the resulting 2,6-cis-6-substituted 4-oxo-L-pipecolic acids to the corresponding 4-hydroxy-L-pipecolic acids was also performed

Haplotype Association Mapping Identifies a Candidate Gene Region in Mice Infected With Staphylococcus aureus

Exposure to Staphylococcus aureus has a variety of outcomes, from asymptomatic colonization to fatal infection. Strong evidence suggests that host genetics play an important role in susceptibility, but the specific host genetic factors involved are not known. The availability of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data for inbred Mus musculus strains means that haplotype association mapping can be used to identify candidate susceptibility genes. We applied haplotype association mapping to Perlegen SNP data and kidney bacterial counts from Staphylococcus aureus-infected mice from 13 inbred strains and detected an associated block on chromosome 7. Strong experimental evidence supports the result: a separate study demonstrated the presence of a susceptibility locus on chromosome 7 using consomic mice. The associated block contains no genes, but lies within the gene cluster of the 26-member extended kallikrein gene family, whose members have well-recognized roles in the generation of antimicrobial peptides and the regulation of inflammation. Efficient mixed-model association (EMMA) testing of all SNPs with two alleles and located within the gene cluster boundaries finds two significant associations: one of the three polymorphisms defining the associated block and one in the gene closest to the block, Klk1b11. In addition, we find that 7 of the 26 kallikrein genes are differentially expressed between susceptible and resistant mice, including the Klk1b11 gene. These genes represent a promising set of candidate genes influencing susceptibility to Staphylococcus aureus

Re‐animation and rehabilitation of the paralyzed face in head and neck cancer patients

Facial nerve paralysis can occasionally result from the treatment of head and neck cancer. The treatment of paralysis is patient specific, and requires an assessment of the remaining nerve segments, musculature, functional deficits, anticipated recovery, and patient factors. When feasible, reinnervation of the remaining musculature can provide the most natural outcome. However, the complex and topographic nature of facial innervation often prevents complete and meaningful movement. In these instances, a wide variety of procedures can be used to combat the functional and cosmetic sequella of facial paralysis. Clin. Anat. 25:99–107, 2012. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/89486/1/21286_ftp.pd