High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5°C over land

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25 ± 5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44 ± 4.37 and 14.98 ± 4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed

Instantaneous Q₁₀ of night‐time leaf respiratory CO₂ efflux:measurement and analytical protocol considerations

The temperature sensitivity (e.g. Q10) of night‐time leaf respiratory CO2 efflux (RCO2) is a fundamental aspect of leaf physiology. The Q10 typically exhibits a dependence on measurement temperature, and it is speculated that this is due to temperature‐dependent shifts in the relative control of leaf RCO2. Two decades ago, a review hypothesized that this mechanistically caused change in values of Q10 is predictable across plant taxa and biomes. Here, we discuss the most appropriate measuring protocol among existing data and for future data collection, to form the foundation for a future mechanistic understanding of Q10 of leaf RCO2 at different temperature ranges. We do this primarily via a review of existing literature on Q10 of night‐time RCO2 and only supplement to a lesser degree with own original data. Based on mechanistic considerations, we encourage that instantaneous Q10 of leaf RCO2 to represent night‐time should be measured: only at night‐time; only in response to short‐term narrow temperature variation (e.g. max. 10°C) to represent a given midpoint temperature at a time; in response to as many temperatures as possible within the chosen temperature range; and on still attached leaves

High-tech farming

High-techFarming es un proyecto que nace a partir del panorama agrícola mundial, el cual busca encontrar nuevas opciones de producción diferentes a la agricultura extensiva y así hacerle frente al cambio climático el cual trae consigo la baja de la producción y las alteraciones climáticas consecuentes, poniendo en riesgo la seguridad alimentaria. es una propuesta arquitectónica inscrita en un planteamiento urbano basado en un patrón de desarrollo aleatorio implantado en la ciudad que permita la integración de diferentes actividades en el cual el individuo se desarrolle en torno a unas acciones cotidianas tales como el habitar, la educación, el comercio, zonas recreativas y/o dispersión sin necesidad de viajar grandes distancias para suplirlas. El proyecto se encuentra enfocado principalmente en la parte productiva y educativa de la producción agrícola y de como por medio de la arquitectura esta puede aportar tanto áreas productivas como áreas de integración social, de aprendizaje a la comunidad para desdibujar la línea que divide al campo de la ciudad y como esta puede aportar energéticamente a la comunidad y no ser solo un elemento más que la compone sino ser parte activa de esta. Dentro de la propuesta en que se enmarca la edificación se busca que este genere un aporte energético para así ser sostenible y sustentable, generando un valor en el paisaje urbano como una herramienta para el desarrollo. Se comienza el planteamiento del edificio como un organismo vivo y/o sistema homeostático que consiste en una red de retroalimentación, capaz de mantener una condición interna estable compensando los cambios en su entorno mediante el intercambio regulador de materia y energía. Así mismo se aplica el concepto de la inspiración biológica con base en las plantas las cuales son capaces de alimentarse de su medio, para generar un proyecto capas de ser de utilidad en la ciudad, un proyecto biodigital. Para concluir por medio del proyecto se pretende generar espacios de productividad y conocimiento colectivo mediante de la creación de centros de innovación conectados con el sistema de desarrollo aleatorio y la red de abastecimiento para así generar un impacto positivo en el desarrollo de la ciudad. Así mismo por medio de la fabricación y tecnologías aplicadas se pretende disminuir la demanda de recursos energéticos y a su vez hacer la función de digestor de CO2.High-tech Farming is a project that is born from the world agricultural panorama, which seeks to find new options of production different from the extensive agriculture and thus to face to the climatic change which brings with the loss of the production and the consequent climatic alterations , Putting food safety at risk. Is an architectural proposal inscribed in an urban approach based on a pattern of random development implanted in the city that allows the integration of different activities in which the individual develops around daily actions such as housing, education, commerce , Recreational areas and / or dispersion without having to travel great distances to supply them. The project is focused mainly on the productive and educational part of agricultural production and how through architecture this can contribute both productive areas as areas of social integration, learning to the community to blur the line that divides the field of The city and how it can contribute energetically to the community and not be only one element that compose it but be an active part of it. Within the proposal in which the building is framed, it is sought that this generate an energy contribution to be sustainable and sustainable, generating a value in the urban landscape as a tool for development. It begins the approach of the building as a living organism and / or homeostatic system consisting of a feedback network capable of maintaining a stable internal condition compensating for changes in its environment through the exchange of matter and energy. Also applies the concept of biological inspiration based on plants which are able to feed from their environment, to generate a project layers of utility in the city, a biodigital project. To conclude through the project is to generate spaces of productivity and collective knowledge through the creation of innovation centers connected with the system of random development and the supply network to generate a positive impact on the development of the city. Also by means of the manufacturing and applied technologies it is tried to diminish the demand of energetic resources and in turn to do the function of digestor of CO2.Arquitecto (a)Pregrad

Informe de experiencia profesional en pacientes Traqueostomizados en el servicio 5111 de neurocirugía / cabeza y cuello del Hospital Nacional Arzobispo Loayza 2012 - 2015

En el presente "Informe de experiencia profesional en pacientes traqueostomizados en el servicio 5111 de neurocirugía / cabeza y cuello del Hospital Nacional Arzobispo Loayza 2012 - 2015" resumo mis experiencias ejercidas como licenciada en enfermería con el propósito de disminuir el grado de ansiedad y prevenir las complicaciones para una rápida recuperación post operatoria; las cuales se han enriquecido y han aportado en mi desarrollo profesional. Siendo mi objetivo principal la aplicación de mis conocimientos y formación como especialista basado en las diversas herramientas con enfoque científico y humanístico, lo que se ve reflejado en la mejora de actitud hacia el servicio y de mis pacientes. En este informe se utilizó metodología descriptiva, retrospectiva, aplicativa y cuantitativa. Ya que se basa en la experiencia adquirida a través de los años y utilizando la observación y herramientas como la recopilación documental de la institución.Trabajo academic

Does the growth response of woody plants to elevated CO2 increase with temperature? A model-oriented meta-analysis

The temperature dependence of the reaction kinetics of the Rubisco enzyme implies that, at the level of a chloroplast, the response of photosynthesis to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca) will increase with increasing air temperature. Vegetation models incorporating this interaction predict that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO2 (eCa) will increase with rising temperature and will be substantially larger in warm tropical forests than in cold boreal forests. We tested these model predictions against evidence from eCa experiments by carrying out two meta-analyses. Firstly, we tested for an interaction effect on growth responses in factorial eCa × temperature experiments. This analysis showed a positive, but nonsignificant interaction effect (95% CI for above-ground biomass response = −0.8, 18.0%) between eCa and temperature. Secondly, we tested field-based eCa experiments on woody plants across the globe for a relationship between the eCa effect on plant biomass and mean annual temperature (MAT). This second analysis showed a positive but nonsignificant correlation between the eCa response and MAT. The magnitude of the interactions between CO2 and temperature found in both meta-analyses were consistent with model predictions, even though both analyses gave nonsignificant results. Thus, we conclude that it is not possible to distinguish between the competing hypotheses of no interaction vs. an interaction based on Rubisco kinetics from the available experimental database. Experiments in a wider range of temperature zones are required. Until such experimental data are available, model predictions should aim to incorporate uncertainty about this interaction

Modelling the Impact of Radiation Changes on the Terrestrial Carbon Sink - over the 1900-2100 period

Solar Radiation is one of the main requirements for plant functioning and any changes in this field are likely to affect plant photosynthesis. Changes in the solar radiation reaching the land surface caused by aerosols emitted from volcanoes and various anthropogenic sources have occurred during the industrial era. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of changes in radiation during the 1900-2100 period on land productivity and carbon storage. We use an offline version of the land surface scheme of the Hadley centre model (Cox et al. 1998) which has been modified to account for variations of direct and diffuse radiation on sunlit and shaded canopy photosynthesis. Additionally, we use short wave and photosynthetic active radiation fields simulated by the Hadley centre climate model which takes into account the scattering and absorption of light by tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols. We describe the simulation of the land carbon cycle through the Pinatubo event but also the dimming-brightening period, and diagnose the impact that changes in diffuse radiation had on the atmospheric [CO2] growth-rate. We will also discuss the implications of these results for the future land carbon-sink, under likely changes in the atmospheric aerosol loading

La flexibilización salarial : ¿"estrategia legal" para combatir el desempleo?

Abogado (a)Pregrad

Investigación y propuesta para el área de gestión humana en la organización MAKAIA

Actualmente, el reto al que se enfrentan las personas que trabajan en Gestión Humana, es lograr una transición del enfoque transaccional que esta área ha venido desempeñando, hacia un proceso que realmente genera valor y respaldo para cumplimiento de las metas estratégicas de las organizaciones. Debido a que existe una gran brecha por cubrir entre el estado al que se quiere llegar y el actual, y son muchas las vías y los recursos que se pueden utilizar para lograr la construcción de una Gestión humana más estratégica; es necesario establecer una metodología que permita llegar a realizar un diagnóstico integral, el cual como primera instancia permita comprender los diferentes impactos que tiene esta área dentro de la organización, para después lograr identificar los puntos que lo hacen más fuerte y los temas por mejorar, con la finalidad de proponer acciones que contribuyan al mejoramiento continuo de los procesos del área, teniendo en cuenta las necesidades estratégicas y la satisfacción del cliente interno. En primera instancia se identificaron las falencias que actualmente tiene el área de gestión humana de MAKAIA; por lo tanto, esta buscó una intervención que le permitiera agregar valor al interior de la organización

Diseño de una propuesta de mejora para la reposición de inventarios a través de la simulación en la línea de vehículos livianos de una empresa distribuidora de autopartes

The management of inventories represents a very indispensable economic alternative in the organization of companies that strive to reduce costs and improve their productive efficiency. This management is recognized as a pertinent and effective tool for the good management of the available resources, the improvement of the quality of the service to the clients and why not, to improve the margins of financial sustainability. In this research, the design is shown through a simulation software, a proposal to replenish inventories to integrate rotation analysis based on the ABC categorization and the standardization of maximums and minimums, seeking to keep the products that carry it in the NTS on hand to meet over 85% the requirements of its customers. Among the results, it was possible to verify that the safety inventory is a control variable that directly affects the flow of the supply chain and inventory. Since this depends in turn on the flow of orders and the management of purchases made when applying value of security stocks by the company.La gestión de inventarios representa una alternativa económica muy indispensable en la organización de las empresas que se esfuerzan por reducir costos y mejorar su eficiencia productiva. Esta gestión es reconocida como una herramienta pertinente y eficaz para el buen manejo de los recursos disponibles, el mejoramiento de la calidad del servicio a los clientes y por qué no, mejorar los márgenes de sustentabilidad financiera. En esta investigación se muestra el diseño través de un software de simulación una propuesta de reposición de inventarios para integrar el análisis de rotación basado en la categorización ABC y la estandarización de máximos y mínimos buscando mantener en el on hand de NTS los productos que le lleven a cumplir sobre el 85% los requerimientos de sus clientes. Entre los resultados se pudo verificar que el inventario de seguridad es una variable de control que afecta directamente el flujo de la cadena de aprovisionamiento e inventario. Puesto que este depende a su vez del flujo de pedidos y de la gestión de compras que se realice al aplicar valor de los stocks de seguridad por parte de la empresa