A comparison of different community models of Antiretroviral Therapy delivery among stable HIV+ patients in an urban setting, Zambia. A cluster-randomized non-inferiority trial.

Background: Community models of antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery also known as differentiated service delivery (DSD) models are a novel innovative strategy to increase sustainable ART coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in resource-limited settings. We compared two different models of ART delivery with the health care facility to gather evidence on the impact of these models’ patients’ clinical and virological outcomes, operational feasibility, and acceptability to guide policy makers on which models to roll out in the context of universal treatment. Methods: A three-arm cluster randomized non-inferiority trial was conducted in two urban HPTN 071 trial communities in Zambia comparing three different models of ART delivery: Standard of Care (SoC), Home-Based delivery (HBD) and Adherence Clubs (AC). Adult HIV+ patients defined as “stable” on ART, were eligible for inclusion. The primary endpoint was the proportion of PLHIV with virological suppression (≤1000 copies HIV RNA/ml) at 12 months (+/- 3 months) after study entry across all three arms. Analysis of our outcomes used statistical methods for CRT. Results: A total of 2,489 participants were enrolled in the study (781 SoC, 852 HBD, and 856 AC). There was a strong evidence (p 95% compares favourably or superiorly with results published from literature. This trial also identified gaps in the evidence base and programmatic priorities for DSD implementation in SSA in the coming years with respect to viral load testing and monitoring and evaluation of DSD models embedded in routine HIV service delivery. Discussion: Community models of ART delivery were as effective as facility-based care in terms of viral suppression. However, availability of viral load test results remains a challenge to HIV programmes and could undermine gains from universal treatment. Offering PLHIV choices of these different models of ART is feasible and acceptable

Incidence of Tuberculosis amongst HIV positive individuals initiating antiretroviral treatment at higher CD4 counts in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) guidelines recommend lifelong ART for all HIV positive individuals. This study evaluated TB incidence on ART in a cohort of HIV positive individuals starting ART regardless of CD4 count in a programmatic setting at three clinics included in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of HIV-positive individuals aged ≥18 years starting ART, between January 2014 and November 2015, was conducted. Follow up was continued until 30 May 2016 or censored on the date of i) incident TB ii) loss to follow up from HIV care or death or iii) elective transfer out; whichever occurred first. RESULTS: The study included 2423 individuals. Median baseline CD4 count was 328 cells/µL (IQR 195-468), TB incidence rate was 4.41/100 PY (95% CI 3.62-5.39). The adjusted hazard ratio of incident TB was 0.27 (95% CI 0.12 - 0.62) when comparing individuals with baseline CD4 > 500cells/µL and ≤ 500cells/µL. Amongst individuals with baseline CD4 count > 500cells/µL there were no incident TB cases in the first three months of follow up. Adjusted hazard of incident TB was also higher amongst men (aHR 2.16; 95% CI: 1.41 - 3.30). CONCLUSION: TB incidence after ART initiation was significantly lower amongst individuals starting ART at CD4 counts above 500cells/µL. Scale up of ART, regardless of CD4 count, has the potential to significantly reduce TB incidence amongst HIV-positive individuals. However, this needs to be combined with strengthening of other TB prevention strategies that target both HIV positive and HIV negative individuals

HIV-phyloTSI: subtype-independent estimation of time since HIV-1 infection for cross-sectional measures of population incidence using deep sequence data

Background: Estimating the time since HIV infection (TSI) at population level is essential for tracking changes in the global HIV epidemic. Most methods for determining TSI give a binary classification of infections as recent or non-recent within a window of several months, and cannot assess the cumulative impact of an intervention. Results: We developed a Random Forest Regression model, HIV-phyloTSI, which combines measures of within-host diversity and divergence to generate continuous TSI estimates directly from viral deep-sequencing data, with no need for additional variables. HIV-phyloTSI provides a continuous measure of TSI up to 9 years, with a mean absolute error of less than 12 months overall and less than 5 months for infections with a TSI of up to a year. It performs equally well for all major HIV subtypes based on data from African and European cohorts. Conclusions: We demonstrate how HIV-phyloTSI can be used for incidence estimates on a population level

An Empirical Approach to Defining Loss to Follow-up Among Patients Enrolled in Antiretroviral Treatment Programs

In many programs providing antiretroviral therapy (ART), clinicians report substantial patient attrition; however, there are no consensus criteria for defining patient loss to follow-up (LTFU). Data on a multisite human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment cohort in Lusaka, Zambia, were used to determine an empirical “days-late” definition of LTFU among patients on ART. Cohort members were classified as either “in care” or LTFU as of December 31, 2007, according to a range of days-late intervals. The authors then looked forward in the database to determine which patients actually returned to care at any point over the following year. The interval that best minimized LTFU misclassification was described as “best-performing.” Overall, 33,704 HIV-infected adults on ART were included. Nearly one-third (n = 10,196) were at least 1 day late for an appointment. The best-performing LTFU definition was 56 days after a missed visit, which had a sensitivity of 84.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 83.2, 85.0), specificity of 97.5% (95% CI: 97.3, 97.7), and misclassification of 5.1% (95% CI: 4.8, 5.3). The 60-day threshold performed similarly well, with only a marginal difference (<0.1%) in misclassification. This analysis suggests that ≥60 days since the last appointment is a reasonable definition of LTFU. Standardization to empirically derived definitions of LTFU will permit more reliable comparisons within and across programs

A Comprehensive Genomics Solution for HIV Surveillance and Clinical Monitoring in Low-Income Settings.

Viral genetic sequencing can be used to monitor the spread of HIV drug resistance, identify appropriate antiretroviral regimes, and characterize transmission dynamics. Despite decreasing costs, next-generation sequencing (NGS) is still prohibitively costly for routine use in generalized HIV epidemics in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we present veSEQ-HIV, a high-throughput, cost-effective NGS sequencing method and computational pipeline tailored specifically to HIV, which can be performed using leftover blood drawn for routine CD4 cell count testing. This method overcomes several major technical challenges that have prevented HIV sequencing from being used routinely in public health efforts; it is fast, robust, and cost-efficient, and generates full genomic sequences of diverse strains of HIV without bias. The complete veSEQ-HIV pipeline provides viral load estimates and quantitative summaries of drug resistance mutations; it also exploits information on within-host viral diversity to construct directed transmission networks. We evaluated the method's performance using 1,620 plasma samples collected from individuals attending 10 large urban clinics in Zambia as part of the HPTN 071-2 study (PopART Phylogenetics). Whole HIV genomes were recovered from 91% of samples with a viral load of >1,000 copies/ml. The cost of the assay (30 GBP per sample) compares favorably with existing VL and HIV genotyping tests, proving an affordable option for combining HIV clinical monitoring with molecular epidemiology and drug resistance surveillance in low-income settings

Community based distribution of oral HIV self-testing kits in Zambia: a cluster-randomised trial nested in four HPTN 071 (PopART) intervention communities

Background The HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial provided door-to-door HIV testing services to a large proportion of individuals residing in 21 intervention communities in Zambia and South Africa from 2014 to 2017 and reached the UNAIDS first 90 target among women in Zambia, yet gaps remained among men and young adults. This cluster-randomised study nested in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial sought to increase knowledge of HIV status across all groups by offering the choice of oral HIV self-testing in addition to routine door-to-door HIV testing services. Methods We nested this cluster-randomised trial in four HTPN 071 (PopART) intervention communities in northern Zambia. 66 zones (clusters) in these communities were randomly allocated (1:1) to either oral HIV self-testing plus routine door-to-door HIV testing services (HIV self-testing group) or the PopART standard of care of door-to-door HIV testing services alone (non- HIV self-testing group) over a 3-month period. All individuals aged 16 years or older were eligible for HIV testing. Randomisation was achieved by randomly selecting one allocation from a list of 10 000 possible allocations during a public ceremony. In HIV self-testing zones, trained lay-counsellors (known as community HIV care providers) visited households and offered eligible individuals the choice of HIV testing using HIV self-testing or routine door-to-door HIV testing services. For individuals aged 18 years or older whose partner was absent during the household visit, an HIV self-test kit could be left for secondary distribution to the absent partner. The primary outcome was knowledge of HIV status (defined as self-reporting HIV positive to the community HIV care providers or accepting an offer of HIV testing services). Outcomes were measured among households that were first visited, and individuals first enumerated as a household member during the HIV self-testing intervention period. We analysed data at the individual level using population-average logistic regression models, accounting for clustering of outcomes by zone, to estimate the effect of the intervention. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02994329. Findings Between Feb 1, and April 30, 2017, the community HIV care providers enumerated 13 267 eligible individuals in the HIV self-testing group and 13 706 in the non-HIV self-testing group. After intervention implementation, 9027 (68%) of 13 267 in the HIV self-testing group had knowledge of HIV status compared with 8952 (65%) of 13 706 in the non-HIV self-testing group (adjusted odds ratio 1·30, 95% CI 1·03–1·65; p=0·03). The effect differed by sex (pinteraction=0·01). Among men, knowledge of HIV status was higher in the HIV self-testing group than in the non-HIV self-testing group (3843 [60%] of 6368 vs 3571 [55%] of 6486; adjusted odds ratio 1·31, 95% CI 1·07–1·60; p=0·01). There was no evidence of a between-group difference among female participants. Interpretation Providing a choice of HIV self-testing during delivery of door-to-door HIV testing services increased knowledge of HIV status, driven by an effect among men. Lay counsellors have a vital role to play in adapting HIV self-testing interventions to local context

HIV-phyloTSI: subtype-independent estimation of time since HIV-1 infection for cross-sectional measures of population incidence using deep sequence data.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the time since HIV infection (TSI) at population level is essential for tracking changes in the global HIV epidemic. Most methods for determining TSI give a binary classification of infections as recent or non-recent within a window of several months, and cannot assess the cumulative impact of an intervention. RESULTS: We developed a Random Forest Regression model, HIV-phyloTSI, which combines measures of within-host diversity and divergence to generate continuous TSI estimates directly from viral deep-sequencing data, with no need for additional variables. HIV-phyloTSI provides a continuous measure of TSI up to 9 years, with a mean absolute error of less than 12 months overall and less than 5 months for infections with a TSI of up to a year. It performs equally well for all major HIV subtypes based on data from African and European cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV-phyloTSI can be used for incidence estimates on a population level

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified