Mapping cropland-use intensity across Europe using MODIS NDVI time series

Global agricultural production will likely need to increase in the future due to population growth, changing diets, and the rising importance of bioenergy. Intensifying already existing cropland is often considered more sustainable than converting more natural areas. Unfortunately, our understanding of cropping patterns and intensity is weak, especially at broad geographic scales. We characterized and mapped cropping systems in Europe, a region containing diverse cropping systems, using four indicators: (a) cropping frequency (number of cropped years), (b) multi-cropping (number of harvests per year), (c) fallow cycles, and (d) crop duration ratio (actual time under crops) based on the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from 2000 to 2012. Second, we used these cropping indicators and self-organizing maps to identify typical cropping systems. The resulting six clusters correspond well with other indicators of agricultural intensity (e.g., nitrogen input, yields) and reveal substantial differences in cropping intensity across Europe. Cropping intensity was highest in Germany, Poland, and the eastern European Black Earth regions, characterized by high cropping frequency, multi-cropping and a high crop duration ratio. Contrarily, we found lowest cropping intensity in eastern Europe outside the Black Earth region, characterized by longer fallow cycles. Our approach highlights how satellite image time series can help to characterize spatial patterns in cropping intensity—information that is rarely surveyed on the ground and commonly not included in agricultural statistics: our clustering approach also shows a way forward to reduce complexity when measuring multiple indicators. The four cropping indicators we used could become part of continental-scale agricultural monitoring in order to identify target regions for sustainable intensification, where trade-offs between intensification and the environmental should be explored.Peer Reviewe

Hunting as land use: Understanding the spatial associations among hunting, agriculture, and forestry

Hunting is a widespread but often overlooked land-use activity, providing major benefits to society. Hunting takes place in most landscapes, yet it remains unclear which types of landscapes foster or dampen hunting-related services, and how hunting relates to other land uses. A better understanding of these relationships is key for sustainable land-use planning that integrates wildlife management. This is particularly urgent for Europe, where wildlife populations are increasing. Focusing on Sweden, we explored the spatial associations among hunting, agriculture, and forestry to identify archetypical combinations of these land uses. Specifically, we combined indicators on the extent and intensity of agriculture and forestry, with data on hunting bags for 63 game species using self-organizing maps, a non-parametric clustering approach. We identified 15 typical bundles of co-occurring land uses at the municipality level across Sweden. The harvest of forest grouse, bears, and moose co-occurred with forestry in northern Sweden, whereas the harvest of small game, different deer species, and wild boar co-occurred with agriculture across southern Sweden, reflecting species’ biology, environmental factors, and management. Our findings also highlight the strength of associations among hunting and other land uses. Importantly, we identified large areas in central Sweden where harvest of game was below average, possibly indicating that intensity of hunting is out of balance with that of agriculture or forestry, potentially fostering conflict between wildlife and land use. Collectively, our results suggest that (1) hunting should be considered a major land use that, in Sweden, is more widespread than agriculture and forestry; (2) land-use planning must therefore integrate wildlife management; and (3) such an integration should occur in a regionalized manner that considers social-ecological context. Our approach identifies a first spatial template within which such context-specific land-use planning, aiming at aligning wildlife and diverse land uses, can take place

Widespread and major losses in multiple ecosystem services as a result of agricultural expansion in the Argentine Chaco

1.Where agriculture expands into tropical and subtropical forests, social–ecological impacts are typically strong. However, where and how frontier development impacts on ecosystem functioning and services is often unclear, including which services trade‐off against agricultural production. This constitutes a major barrier towards planning for more sustainable outcomes in deforestation frontiers. 2. Here we assessed spatiotemporal change in multiple ecosystem services in the Argentine Chaco, a global deforestation hotspot. We modelled and mapped five ecosystem functions (i.e. carbon storage in biomass, carbon storage in soil, erosion control, excess rainfall retention by vegetation and soil fertility) which together provide three ecosystem services (i.e. agricultural suitability, climate regulation and flood regulation) for 1985, 2000 and 2013. We then employed this information to identify and map: (a) main trade‐offs between ecosystem services and agricultural production, and (b) bundles of changes in ecosystem services through the use of Self‐Organizing Maps. 3. Our results highlight that land‐use changes since 1985 have led to widespread and drastic declines in ecosystem functions and services across the Argentine Chaco. Mean losses of ecosystem services ranged between 6% and 10% for flood regulation, climate regulation and agricultural suitability. The largest losses occurred in the Dry Chaco subregion between 2000 and 2013. 4. We find two main types of trade‐offs between regulating ecosystem services and agricultural production. Increases in crop and pasture production occurred along with large and moderate losses, respectively, in flood regulation and climate regulation over 20% of the region. 5. Our mapping of bundles identified five common patterns of change in ecosystem services, delineating areas of stable or degrading ecosystem service supply. This provides a powerful template for adaptive spatial planning. 6. Synthesis and applications. Using the Argentinean Chaco as an example, we demonstrate how combining fine‐scale land‐use maps with biophysical models provides deep insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in ecosystem services, and their trade‐offs with agricultural production. The periodic updating of maps of trade‐offs and bundles of change in ecosystem services provides key inputs for the adaptive management of highly dynamic and threatened landscapes, such as those in tropical and subtropical deforestation frontiers.EEA BalcarceFil: Barral, María Paula. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina.Fil: Villarino, Sebastián Horacio. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Baumann, Mathias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Mastrangelo, Matías Enrique. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

The geography of megatrends affecting European agriculture

A range of intensifying pressures is making the future of European agriculture dynamic and contested. Insights into these pressures are needed to inform debates about the future of the sector. In this study, we use a foresight approach to identify, quantify and map megatrends. Megatrends are long-term driving forces which are observable today and will likely have transformational potential in the future. By mapping these megatrends at the regional scale, we establish a geography of megatrends and detect where they coincide. Four megatrends significant for the future of European agriculture at the regional scale are assessed: Climate change, demographic change, (post-) productivism shifts, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The direction and intensity of these megatrends differs between regions, which drives regions into different systemic lock-ins or dynamics. In most regions, megatrends converge to destabilize the current system, forewarning impending systemic changes. While the specific megatrends contributing to this instability differ regionally, this result highlights that many regions are on a dynamic rather than stable trajectory, and the governance challenge is to steer these dynamics towards a desirable future. However, some regions are found to be highly persistent, indicating that megatrends reinforce business as usual, and change needs to be triggered through purposeful governance. In a minority of regions megatrends may drive marginalization as the current system becomes increasingly unviable. We argue that research and policies concerning agricultural sustainability transitions should be cognizant of the regional diversity of European megatrends and the pressures they create

Mapping and characterizing social-ecological land systems of South America

Humans place strong pressure on land and have modified around 75% of Earth’s terrestrial surface. In this context, ecoregions and biomes, merely defined on the basis of their biophysical features, are incomplete characterizations of the territory. Land system science requires classification schemes that incorporate both social and biophysical dimensions. In this study, we generated spatially explicit social-ecological land system (SELS) typologies for South America with a hybrid methodology that combined data-driven spatial analysis with a knowledge-based evaluation by an interdisciplinary group of regional specialists. Our approach embraced a holistic consideration of the social-ecological land systems, gathering a dataset of 26 variables spanning across 7 dimensions: physical, biological, land cover, economic, demographic, political, and cultural. We identified 13 SELS nested in 5 larger social-ecological regions (SER). Each SELS was discussed and described by specific groups of specialists. Although 4 environmental and 1 socioeconomic variable explained most of the distribution of the coarse SER classification, a diversity of 15 other variables were shown to be essential for defining several SELS, highlighting specific features that differentiate them. The SELS spatial classification presented is a systematic and operative characterization of South American social-ecological land systems. We propose its use can contribute as a reference framework for a wide range of applications such as analyzing observations within larger contexts, designing system-specific solutions for sustainable development, and structuring hypothesis testing and comparisons across space. Similar efforts could be done elsewhere in the world

Frontier metrics for a process-based understanding of deforestation dynamics

Agricultural expansion into tropical and subtropical forests often leads to major social-ecological trade-offs. Yet, despite ever-more detailed information on where deforestation occurs, how agriculture expands into forests remains unclear, which is hampered by a lack of spatially and temporally detailed reconstruction of agricultural expansion. Here, we developed and mapped a novel set of metrics that quantify agricultural frontier processes at unprecedented spatial and temporal detail. Specifically, we first derived consistent annual time series of land-use/cover to, second, describe archetypical patterns of frontier expansion, pertaining to the speed, the diffusion and activity of deforestation, as well as post-deforestation land use. We exemplify this approach for understanding agricultural frontier expansion across the entire South American Chaco (1.1 million km2), a global deforestation hotspot. Our study provides three major insights. First, agricultural expansion has been rampant in the Chaco, with more than 19.3 million ha of woodlands converted between 1985 and 2020, including a surge in deforestation after 2019. Second, land-use trajectories connected to frontier processes have changed in major ways over the 35 year study period we studied, including substantial regional variations. For instance, while ranching expansion drove most of the deforestation in the 1980s and 1990s, cropland expansion dominated during the mid-2000s in Argentina, but not in Paraguay. Similarly, 40% of all areas deforested were initially used for ranching, but later on converted to cropping. Accounting for post-deforestation land-use change is thus needed to properly attribute deforestation and associated environmental impacts, such as carbon emissions or biodiversity loss, to commodities. Finally, we identified major, recurrent frontier types that may be a useful spatial template for land governance to match policies to specific frontier situations. Collectively, our study reveals the diversity of frontier processes and how frontier metrics can capture and structure this diversity to uncover major patterns of human–nature interactions, which can be used to guide spatially-targeted policies.H2020 European Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663Belgian Federal Science Policy Officehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002749Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschafthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Peer Reviewe

Developing context-specific frameworks for integrated sustainability assessment of agricultural intensity change: An application for Europe

Agriculture plays a central role in achieving most Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Sustainable intensi- fication (SI) of agriculture has been proposed as a promising concept for safeguarding global food security, while simultaneously protecting the environment and promoting good quality of life. However, SI often leads to context-specific sustainability trade-offs. Operationalising SI thus needs to be supported by transparent sus- tainability assessments. In this article, we propose a general systematic approach to developing context-specific frameworks for integrated sustainability assessment of agricultural intensity change. Firstly, we specify a comprehensive system representation for analysing how changes in agricultural intensity lead to a multitude of sustainability outcomes affecting different societal groups across geographical scales. We then introduce a procedure for identifying the attributes that are relevant for assessment within particular contexts, and respective indicator metrics. Finally, we illustrate the proposed approach by developing an assessment framework for evaluating a wide range of intensification pathways in Europe. The application of the approach revealed pro- cesses and effects that are relevant for the European context but are rarely considered in SI assessments. These include farmers’ health, workers’ living conditions, cultural heritage and sense of place of rural communities, animal welfare, impacts on sectors not directly related to agriculture (e.g., tourism), shrinking and ageing of rural population and consumers’ health. The proposed approach addresses important gaps in SI assessments, and thus represents an important step forward in defining transparent procedures for sustainability assessments that can stimulate an informed debate about the operationalisation of SI and its contribution towards achieving SDGs

Hotspots of land use change in Europe

Die Zweitveröffentlichung der Publikation wurde durch Studierende des Projektseminars "Open Access Publizieren an der HU" im Sommersemester 2017 betreut. Nachgenutzt gemäß den CC-Bestimmungen des Lizenzgebers bzw. einer im Dokument selbst enthaltenen CC-Lizenz.Assessing changes in the extent and management intensity of land use is crucial to understanding land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, changes in the spatial patterns of land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to changes in the extent of land uses, remains unclear for many world regions.Wecompiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatiallyexplicit land-use change indicators capturing changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropland, grazing land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990–2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity changes.Wefound a clear East–West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropland declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropland contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land-use change hotspot during 1990–2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of land use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of land-use changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering changes in the extent and management intensity of land use, as well as feedbacks among land-use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of land-use change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of land-use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized land-use policy making.Peer Reviewe

Mapping wood production in European forests

Wood production is an important forest use, impacting a range of other ecosystem services. However, information on the spatial patterns in wood production is limited and often available only for larger administrative units. In this study, we developed high-resolution wood production maps for European forests. We collected wood production statistics for 29 European countries from 2000 to 2010, as well as comprehensive sets of biophysical and socioeconomic location factors. We used regression analyses to produce maps indicating the harvest likelihood on a 1 × 1 km2 grid. These likelihood maps were validated using national forest inventory plot data. We then disaggregated wood production statistics from larger administrative units to the grid level using the harvest likelihood as weights. We verified the resulting wood production maps by correlating predicted and observed wood production at the level of smaller administrative units not used for generating the wood production maps. We conclude that (i) productivity, tree species composition and terrain ruggedness are the most important location factors that determine the spatial patterns of wood production at the pan-European scale and that (ii) incorporating these location factors substantially improves the results of disaggregating wood production statistics compared to a disaggregation based on forest cover only. Our wood production maps give insight into forest ecosystem service provisioning and can be used to improve the assessment of potentials and costs of woody biomass supply