The influence of the QBO on the propagation of equatorial waves into the stratosphere

The variation of stratospheric equatorial wave characteristics with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated using ECMWF Re-Analysis and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The impact of the QBO phases on the upward propagation of equatorial waves is found to be consistent and significant. In the easterly phase, there is larger Kelvin wave amplitude but smaller westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and n = 1 Rossby (R1) wave amplitude due to reduced propagation from the upper troposphere into the lower stratosphere, compared with the westerly phase. Differences in the wave amplitude exist in a deeper layer in summer than in winter, consistent with the seasonality of ambient zonal winds. There is a strong evidence of Kelvin wave amplitude peaking just below the descending westerly phase, suggesting that Kelvin waves act to bring the westerly phase downward. However, the corresponding evidence for WMRG and R1 waves is less clear. In the lower stratosphere there is zonal variation in equatorial waves. This reflects the zonal asymmetry of wave amplitudes in the upper troposphere, the source for the lower-stratospheric waves. In easterly winters the upper-tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves over the eastern Pacific region appear to be somewhat stronger compared to climatology, perhaps because of the accumulation of waves that are unable to propagate upward into the lower stratosphere. Vertical propagation features of these waves are generally consistent with theory and suggest a mixture of Doppler shifting by ambient flows and filtering. Some lower-stratosphere equatorial waves have a connection with preceding tropical convection, especially for Kelvin and R1 waves in winter

Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Mesmer and His Legacy: Literature, Culture, and Science

The second half of the eighteenth century saw the emergence of Franz Anton Mesmer's theories and therapies concerning the curative power of animal magnetism, an innate force that he claimed could be harnessed and directed to great healing effect. Formally dismissed by a French Royal Commission in 1784, the many positive treatment outcomes were attributed to the patient's own imagination. This acknowledgement by the scientific fraternity that imagination alone could effect cures signalled that Mesmer's work had uncovered new, exciting and even dangerous possibilities about the power of the mind. Always a controversial subject, those who chose to examine animal magnetism, or its later incarnations of mesmerism or hypnosis, were always at risk of social and professional criticism, even disgrace and exclusion, which raises the question of how and why respected members of the social and scientific community would approach this multifarious topic. By selecting as case studies three previously neglected figures in the mesmerism scholarship, namely, Ada Lovelace and two physician-writers, Santiago Ramón y Cajal and Arthur Conan Doyle, as well as incorporating a cutting-edge discussion of Mesmer's life, 'art', and complicated relationship with the scientific community, this thesis offers new perspectives through which to re-examine the complex phenomenon of mesmerism, its possible medical applicability, and the manifold literary representations it elicited. Drawing upon archival sources, scientific texts, letters, non-fictional and fictional works, this interdisciplinary study combines close textual analysis with an examination of scientific, social and cultural contexts. Through this pluralistic critical approach, and by seeking to understand the endurance of what may now be considered a protoscience rather than a pseudoscience, the thesis concludes that while Mesmer's work paved the way for a serious research into the constructs of the mind, the qualities of vision, observation and communication are essential to the re-evaluation of new ideas and their interpretation

Factors Influencing Health Career Choices During Clinicians’ First Three Years in Practice

Background: Health systems globally need more clinicians to work rurally and in community-based primary care. This study explores factors influencing health graduates’ choice of clinical setting and geographical location during early careers, across a range of disciplines that work together to support the health of people in community-based and rural locations.Methods: Students from eight disciplines (n = 611) were recruited prior to their final year of pre-registration training. Data were collected via three electronic surveys completed at the end of participants’ first, second, and third year of clinical practice. Data were managed and analyzed with Template Analysis.Findings: Similar factors influenced clinical setting and location choice but differed in relative importance for each. The nature of the job itself was the most important factor influencing clinical setting choices. A broader range of influences were important to geographical location choices including personal reasons, the nature of the job, the nature of the location, and job availability and opportunities. Regulatory or training requirements limited choices available to some clinicians, particularly those from medicine.Conclusion: A range of complex and interacting factors influenced health graduates’ career choices. Findings indicate that a broad system-wide approach is needed to address community and rural health workforce needs

Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings

Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a major source of variability during Northern Hemisphere winter. The frequency of occurrence of SSWs is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11 year solar cycle, and volcanic eruptions. This study investigates the role of ENSO and the QBO on the frequency of SSWs using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3.5 (WACCM3.5). In addition to a control simulation, WACCM3.5 simulations with different combinations of natural variability factors such as the QBO and variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed to investigate the role of QBO and ENSO. Removing only one forcing, variable SSTs or QBO, yields a SSW frequency similar to that in the control experiment; however, removing both forcings results in a significantly decreased SSW frequency. These results imply nonlinear interactions between ENSO and QBO signals in the polar stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. This study also suggests that ENSO and QBO force SSWs differently. The QBO forces SSW events that are very intense and whose impact on the stratospheric temperature can be seen between December and June, whereas ENSO forces less intense SSWs whose response is primarily confined to the months of January, February, and March. The effects of SSWs on the stratospheric background climate is also addressed here

Rapid Evaluation for health and social care innovations: Challenges for “quick wins” using interrupted time series.

Background: Rapid evaluation was at the heart of National Health Service England’s evaluation strategy of the new models of care vanguard programme. This was to facilitate the scale and spread of successful models of care throughout the health & social care system. The aim of this paper is to compare the findings of the two evaluations of the Enhanced health in Care Homes (EHCH) vanguard in Gateshead, one using a smaller data set for rapidity and one using a larger longitudinal data set and to investigate the implications of the use of rapid evaluations using interrupted time series (ITS) methods. Methods: A quasi-experimental design study in the form of an ITS was used to evaluate the impact of the vanguard on secondary care use. Two different models are presented differing by timeframes only. The short-term model consisted of data for 11 months data pre and 20 months post vanguard. The long-term model consisted of data for 23 months pre and 34 months post vanguard. Results: The cost consequences, including the cost of running the EHCH vanguard, were estimated using both a single tariff non-elective admissions methodology and a tariff per bed day methodology. The short-term model estimated a monthly cost increase of £73,408 using a single tariff methodology. When using a tariff per bed day, there was an estimated monthly cost increase of £14,315. The long-term model had, using a single tariff for non-elective admissions, an overall cost increase of £7576 per month. However, when using a tariff per bed-days, there was an estimated monthly cost reduction of £57,168. Conclusions: Although it is acknowledged that there is often a need for rapid evaluations in order to identify “quick wins” and to expedite learning within health and social care systems, we conclude that this may not be appropriate for quasi-experimental designs estimating effect using ITS for complex interventions. Our analyses suggests that care must be taken when conducting and interpreting the results of short-term evaluations using ITS methods, as they may produce misleading results and may lead to a misallocation of resources

The health of Travellers in the South West region: A review of data sources and a strategy for change

This report reviews available data on Travellers' health and highlights the difficulties in making accurate assessments of the health of the travelling population and the comparative poverty of research on the health experience of Travellers

Report of the 1988 2-D Intercomparison Workshop, chapter 3

Several factors contribute to the errors encountered. With the exception of the line-by-line model, all of the models employ simplifying assumptions that place fundamental limits on their accuracy and range of validity. For example, all 2-D modeling groups use the diffusivity factor approximation. This approximation produces little error in tropospheric H2O and CO2 cooling rates, but can produce significant errors in CO2 and O3 cooling rates at the stratopause. All models suffer from fundamental uncertainties in shapes and strengths of spectral lines. Thermal flux algorithms being used in 2-D tracer tranport models produce cooling rates that differ by as much as 40 percent for the same input model atmosphere. Disagreements of this magnitude are important since the thermal cooling rates must be subtracted from the almost-equal solar heating rates to derive the net radiative heating rates and the 2-D model diabatic circulation. For much of the annual cycle, the net radiative heating rates are comparable in magnitude to the cooling rate differences described. Many of the models underestimate the cooling rates in the middle and lower stratosphere. The consequences of these errors for the net heating rates and the diabatic circulation will depend on their meridional structure, which was not tested here. Other models underestimate the cooling near 1 mbar. Suchs errors pose potential problems for future interactive ozone assessment studies, since they could produce artificially-high temperatures and increased O3 destruction at these levels. These concerns suggest that a great deal of work is needed to improve the performance of thermal cooling rate algorithms used in the 2-D tracer transport models

Model documentation, chapter 4

The modeling groups are listed along with a brief description of the respective models