Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fi?tting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We ?find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious speci?cations.

Path integrals approach to resisitivity anomalies in anharmonic systems

Different classes of physical systems with sizeable electron-phonon coupling and lattice distortions present anomalous resistivity behaviors versus temperature. We study a molecular lattice Hamiltonian in which polaronic charge carriers interact with non linear potentials provided by local atomic fluctuations between two equilibrium sites. We study a molecular lattice Hamiltonian in which polaronic charge carriers interact with non linear potentials provided by local atomic fluctuations between two equilibrium sites. A path integral model is developed to select the class of atomic oscillations which mainly contributes to the partition function and the electrical resistivity is computed in a number of representative cases. We argue that the common origin of the observed resistivity anomalies lies in the time retarded nature of the polaronic interactions in the local structural instabilities.Comment: 4 figures, to appear in Phys.Rev.B, May 1st (2001

Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications

Gold chain formation via local lifting of surface reconstruction by hot electron injection on H_2(D_2)/Au(111)

The hexagonal close packed surface of gold shows a 22 x root 3 "herringbone" surface reconstruction which makes it unique among the (111) surfaces of all metals. This long-range energetically favored dislocation pattern appears in response to the strong tensile stress that would be present on the unreconstructed surface. Adsorption of molecular and atomic species can be used to tune this surface stress and lift the herringbone reconstruction. Here we show that herringbone reconstruction can be controllably lifted in ultrahigh vacuum at cryogenic temperatures by precise hot electron injection in the presence of hydrogen molecules. We use the sharp tip of a scanning tunneling microscope (STM) for charge carrier injection and characterization of the resulting chain nanostructures. By comparing STM images, rotational spectromicroscopy and ab initio calculations, we show that formation of gold atomic chains is associated with release of gold atoms from the surface, lifting of the reconstruction, dissociation of H_2 molecules, and formation of surface hydrides. Gold hydrides grow in a zipper-like mechanism forming chains along the [1 (1) over bar0] directions of the Au(111) surface and can be manipulated by further electron injection. Finally, we demonstrate that Au(111) terraces can be transformed with nearly perfect terrace selectivity over distances of hundreds of nanometers

Cranberry A-type proanthocyanidins selectively target acute myeloid leukemia cells

Most elderly patients affected with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) will relapse and die of their disease even after achieving complete remission, thus emphasizing the urgent need for new therapeutic approaches with minimum toxicity to normal hematopoietic cells. Cranberry (Vaccinium spp.) extracts have exhibited anticancer and chemopreventive properties that have been mostly attributed to A-type proanthocyanidin (A-PAC) compounds. A-PACs, isolated from a commercially available cranberry extract, were evaluated for their effects on leukemia cell lines, primary AML samples, and normal CD34+ cord blood specimens. Our results indicated potent and specific antileukemia activity in vitro. In addition, the antileukemia activity of A-PACs extended to malignant progenitor and stem cell populations, sparing their normal counterparts. The antileukemia effects of A-PACs were also observed in vivo using patient derived xenografts. Surprisingly, we found that the mechanism of cell death was driven by activation of NF-κB. Overall, our data suggest that A-PACs could be used to improve treatments for AML by targeting leukemia stem cells through a potentially novel pathway

Needs, Perceptions and Education in Sarcoidosis: A Live Interactive Survey of Patients and Partners

Objectives: Sarcoidosis is a chronic, multisystem disease with often a major impact on quality of life. Information on unmet needs of patients and their partners is lacking. We assessed needs and perceptions of sarcoidosis patients and their partners. Methods: During patient information meetings in 2015 and 2017 in the Erasmus University Medical Center, we interviewed patients and partners using interactive voting boxes. Patients responded anonymously to 17 questions. Answers were projected directly on the screen in the room. Results: 210 patients and 132 partners participated. Sarcoidosis has a subjective significant impact on lives of both p

Treatment Outcomes of Patients With Multidrug-Resistant and Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis According to Drug Susceptibility Testing to First- and Second-line Drugs: An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

The clinical validity of drug susceptibility testing (DST) for pyrazinamide, ethambutol, and second-line antituberculosis drugs is uncertain. In an individual patient data meta-analysis of 8955 patients with confirmed multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, DST results for these drugs were associated with treatment outcome

Comprehensive analysis of epigenetic clocks reveals associations between disproportionate biological ageing and hippocampal volume

The concept of age acceleration, the difference between biological age and chronological age, is of growing interest, particularly with respect to age-related disorders, such as Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). Whilst studies have reported associations with AD risk and related phenotypes, there remains a lack of consensus on these associations. Here we aimed to comprehensively investigate the relationship between five recognised measures of age acceleration, based on DNA methylation patterns (DNAm age), and cross-sectional and longitudinal cognition and AD-related neuroimaging phenotypes (volumetric MRI and Amyloid-β PET) in the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) and the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Significant associations were observed between age acceleration using the Hannum epigenetic clock and cross-sectional hippocampal volume in AIBL and replicated in ADNI. In AIBL, several other findings were observed cross-sectionally, including a significant association between hippocampal volume and the Hannum and Phenoage epigenetic clocks. Further, significant associations were also observed between hippocampal volume and the Zhang and Phenoage epigenetic clocks within Amyloid-β positive individuals. However, these were not validated within the ADNI cohort. No associations between age acceleration and other Alzheimer’s disease-related phenotypes, including measures of cognition or brain Amyloid-β burden, were observed, and there was no association with longitudinal change in any phenotype. This study presents a link between age acceleration, as determined using DNA methylation, and hippocampal volume that was statistically significant across two highly characterised cohorts. The results presented in this study contribute to a growing literature that supports the role of epigenetic modifications in ageing and AD-related phenotypes

Representation in the (Artificial) Immune System

Much of contemporary research in Artificial Immune Systems (AIS) has partitioned into either algorithmic machine learning and optimisation, or, modelling biologically plausible dynamical systems, with little overlap between. We propose that this dichotomy is somewhat to blame for the lack of significant advancement of the field in either direction and demonstrate how a simplistic interpretation of Perelson’s shape-space formalism may have largely contributed to this dichotomy. In this paper, we motivate and derive an alternative representational abstraction. To do so we consider the validity of shape-space from both the biological and machine learning perspectives. We then take steps towards formally integrating these perspectives into a coherent computational model of notions such as life-long learning, degeneracy, constructive representations and contextual recognition—rhetoric that has long inspired work in AIS, while remaining largely devoid of operational definition