Towards a comprehensive assessment of exposure to sea-level rise at continental scale

Coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise (SLR), which will accelerate in the 21st century driven by anthropogenic climate change. Future coastal risks are not only driven by the amount of SLR, but also by a high concentration of population and assets in locations potentially exposed to SLR-related hazards. The uncertainty related to future SLR and socioeconomic development can be explored with the SSP-RCP scenario framework, which consists of physical scenarios (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic scenarios (SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), and is increasingly used in coastal risk assessments at continental to global scales. Thus far, such assessments have primarily focused on characterizing future changes in SLR-related hazards in a spatially explicit manner, while research on the spatial representation of variables to characterize exposure (e.g. population, assets, infrastructure) to those hazards has been limited, in particular with regard to exploring plausible future changes under the SSPs. Previous work that has characterized exposure spatially has used global-scale data, modeling approaches, and scenario assumptions when assessing coastal risks at continental scale. Therefore, this thesis advances the spatial representation of exposure to SLR-related hazards at continental scale to facilitate assessment of future coastal risks in an integrated manner. It focuses on two exposure variables, i.e. population and cultural assets, using the Mediterranean region as a study area. First, the global-scale SSP narratives are extended to the Mediterranean region, by including regional drivers of socioeconomic development, additionally differentiating northern versus southern and eastern countries of the region. The extended narratives are interpreted to develop spatial population projections for each SSP until 2100, accounting for the uncertainty related to future rural-urban and inland-coastal migration. Results show that the population potentially exposed to SLR-related hazards ranges from 34.1 million (SSP1) to 96.2 million (SSP3) in 2100, with marked differences across the Mediterranean. Comparison of these results with results based on the global SSPs shows a deviation of as much as 15% in the exposed population (SSP1), thereby spanning a wider range of uncertainty regarding population exposure. As this approach does not account for urban sprawl, a gravity-based modeling approach is developed, which allows for modeling urban sprawl as well as rural-urban and inland-coastal migration. The spatial population projections produced with this approach result in 51.3 million (SSP4) to 107.8 million (SSP3) people potentially exposed to SLR-related hazards in 2100. The results of the two approaches differ substantially, thereby stressing the need to consider the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches in future work. For more comprehensive coastal risk assessments, additional exposure variables need to be considered. Therefore, a spatial database of cultural assets, an exposure variable not commonly analyzed due to a lack of high-resolution spatial data, is assembled by producing spatial representations (i.e. polygons) of 49 UNESCO World Heritage Sites (WHS) located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean. A first application of the database in a continental-scale assessment shows that, already under current conditions, 75% and 85% of the WHS are at risk from coastal flooding and erosion, respectively. Both risks will increase until 2100, depending on the SLR scenario considered, with considerable differences between WHS and across the Mediterranean basin due to spatially varying characteristics of both risks. The results show that awareness regarding SLR-related risks posed to WHS is low and that adaptation is urgently needed to preserve WHS in the future. This thesis offers an important contribution to characterizing exposure to SLR-related hazards at continental scale, thereby facilitating the integrated assessment of coastal risks, accounting for future uncertainties in physical as well as socioeconomic processes. The results of this thesis stress the importance to explore different migration processes in spatial population projections; characterize additional exposure variables not commonly analyzed; and account for regional characteristics when assessing coastal risks at continental scale. Future work can extend the developed data and modeling approaches and can contribute to harmonizing data and modeling approaches that have gradually increased in recent years, to further advance coastal risk assessments at continental scale

Accounting for internal migration in spatial population projections—a gravity-based modeling approach using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Gridded population projections constitute an essential input for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) assessments as they allow for exploring how future changes in the spatial distribution of population drive climate change impacts. We develop such spatial population projections, using a gravity-based modeling approach that accounts for rural-urban and inland-coastal migration as well as for spatial development patterns (i.e. urban sprawl). We calibrate the model (called CONCLUDE) to the socioeconomically diverse Mediterranean region, additionally considering differences in socioeconomic development in two geographical regions: the northern Mediterranean and the southern and eastern Mediterranean. We produce high-resolution population projections (approximately 1 km) for 2020–2100 that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), both in terms of qualitative narrative assumptions as well as national-level projections. We find that future spatial population patterns differ considerably under all SSPs, with four to eight times higher urban population densities and three to 16 times higher coastal populations in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries in 2100. In the South and East, the highest urban density (8000 people km−2) and coastal population (107 million) are projected under SSP3, while in the North, the highest urban density (1500 people km−2) is projected under SSP1 and the highest coastal population (15.2 million) under SSP5. As these projections account for internal migration processes and spatial development patterns, they can provide new insights in a wide range of IAV assessments. Furthermore, CONCLUDE can be extended to other continental or global scales due to its modest data requirements based on freely available global datasets

Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

AbstractExisting quantifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) used for climate impact assessment do not account for subnational population dynamics such as coastward-migration that can be critical for coastal impact assessment. This paper extends the SSPs by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers we develop coastal narratives for each SSP. These narratives account for differences in coastal and inland population developments in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population, we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates, which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions, to project coastal population for each SSP. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data and adjusted for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. Our results show that, compared to the year 2000 (638 million), the population living in the Low Elevated Coastal Zone (LECZ) increases by 58% to 71% until 2050 and exceeds one billion in all SSPs. By the end of the 21st century, global coastal population declines to 830–907 million in all SSPs except for SSP3, where coastal population growth continues and reaches 1.184 billion. Overall, the population living in the LECZ is higher by 85 to 239 million compared to the original IIASA projections. Asia expects the highest absolute growth (238–303 million), Africa the highest relative growth (153% to 218%). Our results highlight regions where high coastal population growth is expected and will therefore face an increased exposure to coastal flooding

A systematic quality rating of available mobile health apps for borderline personality disorder

Background Mobile health apps (MHAs) may offer a mean to overcome treatment barriers in Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) mental health care. However, MHAs for BPD on the market lack transparency and quality assessment. Methods European app stores were systematically searched, and two independent trained reviewers extracted relevant MHAs. Employed methods and privacy and security details documentation of included MHAs were extracted. MHAs were then assessed and rated using the German version of the standardized Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS-G). Mean values and standard deviations of all subscales (engagement, functionality, aesthetics, information, and therapeutic gain) and correlations with user ratings were calculated. Results Of 2,977 identified MHAs, 16 were included, showing average quality across the four main subscales (M=3.25, SD=0.68). Shortcomings were observed with regard to engagement (M=2.87, SD = 0.99), potential therapeutic gain (M=2.67, SD=0.83), existing evidence base (25.0% of included MHAs were tested empirically), and documented privacy and security details. No significant correlations were found between user ratings and the overall total score of the MARS-G or MARS-G main subscales. Conclusions Available MHAs for BPD vary in quality and evidence on their efficacy, effectiveness, and possible adverse events is scarce. More substantial efforts to ensure the quality of MHAs available for patients and a focus on transparency, particularly regarding privacy and security documentation, are necessary

Somatostatin secretion by Na+-dependent Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release in pancreatic delta-cells.

Pancreatic islets are complex micro-organs consisting of at least three different cell types: glucagon-secreting α-, insulin-producing β- and somatostatin-releasing δ-cells1. Somatostatin is a powerful paracrine inhibitor of insulin and glucagon secretion2. In diabetes, increased somatostatinergic signalling leads to defective counter-regulatory glucagon secretion3. This increases the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, a dangerous complication of insulin therapy4. The regulation of somatostatin secretion involves both intrinsic and paracrine mechanisms5 but their relative contributions and whether they interact remains unclear. Here we show that dapagliflozin-sensitive glucose- and insulin-dependent sodium uptake stimulates somatostatin secretion by elevating the cytoplasmic Na+ concentration ([Na+]i) and promoting intracellular Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release (CICR). This mechanism also becomes activated when [Na+]i is elevated following the inhibition of the plasmalemmal Na+-K+ pump by reductions of the extracellular K+ concentration emulating those produced by exogenous insulin in vivo6. Islets from some donors with type-2 diabetes hypersecrete somatostatin, leading to suppression of glucagon secretion that can be alleviated by a somatostatin receptor antagonist. Our data highlight the role of Na+ as an intracellular second messenger, illustrate the significance of the intraislet paracrine network and provide a mechanistic framework for pharmacological correction of the hormone secretion defects associated with diabetes that selectively target the δ-cells

Motor ability in children treated for idiopathic clubfoot. A controlled pilot study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To study motor ability at seven years of age in children treated for idiopathic clubfoot and its relation to clubfoot laterality, foot status and the amount of surgery performed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty children (mean age 7.5 years, SD 3.2 months) from a consecutive birth cohort from our hospital catchments area (300.000 inhabitants from southern Sweden) were assessed with the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (MABC) and the Clubfoot Assessment Protocol (CAP).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to typically developing children an increased prevalence of motor impairment was found regarding both the total score for MABC (p < 0.05) and the subtest ABC-Ball skills (p < 0.05). No relationship was found between the child's actual foot status, laterality or the extent of foot surgery with the motor ability as measured with MABC. Only the CAP item "one-leg stand" correlated significantly with the MABC (rs = -0.53, p = 0.02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Children with idiopathic clubfoot appear to have an increased risk of motor activity limitations and it is possible that other factors, independent of the clinical status, might be involved. The ability to keep balance on one leg may be a sufficient tool for determining which children in the orthopedic setting should be more thoroughly evaluated regarding their neuromotor functioning.</p

Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5–13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types