Stream temperature prediction in ungauged basins: review of recent approaches and description of a new physics-derived statistical model

The development of stream temperature regression models at regional scales has regained some popularity over the past years. These models are used to predict stream temperature in ungauged catchments to assess the impact of human activities or climate change on riverine fauna over large spatial areas. A comprehensive literature review presented in this study shows that the temperature metrics predicted by the majority of models correspond to yearly aggregates, such as the popular annual maximum weekly mean temperature (MWMT). As a consequence, current models are often unable to predict the annual cycle of stream temperature, nor can the majority of them forecast the inter-annual variation of stream temperature. This study presents a new statistical model to estimate the monthly mean stream temperature of ungauged rivers over multiple years in an Alpine country (Switzerland). Contrary to similar models developed to date, which are mostly based on standard regression approaches, this one attempts to incorporate physical aspects into its structure. It is based on the analytical solution to a simplified version of the energy-balance equation over an entire stream network. Some terms of this solution cannot be readily evaluated at the regional scale due to the lack of appropriate data, and are therefore approximated using classical statistical techniques. This physics-inspired approach presents some advantages: (1) the main model structure is directly obtained from first principles, (2) the spatial extent over which the predictor variables are averaged naturally arises during model development, and (3) most of the regression coefficients can be interpreted from a physical point of view – their values can therefore be constrained to remain within plausible bounds. The evaluation of the model over a new freely available data set shows that the monthly mean stream temperature curve can be reproduced with a rootmean-square error (RMSE) of +/-1.3 °C, which is similar in precision to the predictions obtained with a multi-linear regression model. We illustrate through a simple example how the physical aspects contained in the model structure can be used to gain more insight into the stream temperature dynamics at regional scales

Maths Express au carrefour des cultures

International audienceCette brochure a été réalisée à l'occasion de la quinzième édition du Salon Culture et Jeux mathématiques. Elle a pour objectif de montrer que les mathématiques sont au coeur de toutes les activités humaines qu'elles soient sociales, techniques, scientifiques, artistiques ou ludiques. Elles sont nées et se sont développées au rythme des sociétés humaines

Managerial power in the German model: the case of Bertelsmann and the antecedents of neoliberalism

Our article extends the research on authoritarian neoliberalism to Germany, through a history of the Bertelsmann media corporation – sponsor and namesake of Germany’s most influential neoliberal think-tank. Our article makes three conceptual moves. Firstly, we argue that conceptualizing German neoliberalism in terms of an ‘ordoliberal paradigm’ is of limited use in explaining the rise and fall of Germany’s distinctive socio-economic model (Modell Deutschland). Instead, we locate the origins of authoritarian tendencies in the corporate power exercised by managers rather than in the power of state-backed markets imagined by ordoliberals. Secondly, we focus on the managerial innovations of Bertelsmann as a key actor enmeshed with Modell Deutschland. We show that the adaptation of business management practices of an endogenous ‘Cologne School’ empowered Bertelsmann’s postwar managers to overcome existential crises and financial constraints despite being excluded from Germany’s corporate support network. Thirdly, we argue that their further development in the 1970s also enabled Bertelsmann to curtail and circumvent the forms of labour representation associated with Modell Deutschland. Inspired by cybernetic management theories that it used to limit and control rather than revive market competition among its workforce, Bertelsmann began to act and think outside the postwar settlement between capital and labour before the settlement’s hotly-debated demise since the 1990s

Myelin insulation as a risk factor for axonal degeneration in autoimmune demyelinating disease

Axonal degeneration determines the clinical outcome of multiple sclerosis and is thought to result from exposure of denuded axons to immune-mediated damage. Therefore, myelin is widely considered to be a protective structure for axons in multiple sclerosis. Myelinated axons also depend on oligodendrocytes, which provide metabolic and structural support to the axonal compartment. Given that axonal pathology in multiple sclerosis is already visible at early disease stages, before overt demyelination, we reasoned that autoimmune inflammation may disrupt oligodendroglial support mechanisms and hence primarily affect axons insulated by myelin. Here, we studied axonal pathology as a function of myelination in human multiple sclerosis and mouse models of autoimmune encephalomyelitis with genetically altered myelination. We demonstrate that myelin ensheathment itself becomes detrimental for axonal survival and increases the risk of axons degenerating in an autoimmune environment. This challenges the view of myelin as a solely protective structure and suggests that axonal dependence on oligodendroglial support can become fatal when myelin is under inflammatory attack

"Migrants, States, and EU Citizenship's Unfulfilled Promise"

A constant aim of EU citizenship, and indeed the entire project of European integration, has always been to lower barriers and create a common space. If the complete elimination of national borders remains elusive, their importance has been diminished in striking ways by the development of EU citizenship and the ban against nationality based discrimination. Yet the barriers to free movement have been lowered in differential ways. Most citizens of EU member states now enjoy residence, employment and other rights throughout Europe. The extension of some rights to some categories of citizens of some new member states is admittedly sometimes subject to transition periods, but these expire. By contrast, third country nationals -- individuals who do not hold citizenship of one of the member states, even though they may have resided for many years, or even been born in Europe -- remain largely excluded from the benefits of EU citizenship. Various initiatives over the years have opened up limited rights for third country nationals. But the difficulty of enacting these rights, and current moves to more restrictive immigration and naturalization policies, highlight the continuing exclusivity of EU citizenship: immigrants migrate to national polities, and they become European only by virtue of incorporation into national states. This means that EU citizenship's transformative potential remains unrealized.Glendon College (York University