Comparison of observed and general circulation model derived continental subsurface heat flux in the Northern Hemisphere

Heat fluxes in the continental subsurface were estimated from general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the climate of the last millennium and compared to those obtained from subsurface geothermal data. Since GCMs have bottom boundary conditions (BBCs) that are less than 10 m deep and thus may be thermodynamically restricted in the continental subsurface, we used an idealized land surface model (LSM) with a very deep BBC to estimate the potential for realistic subsurface heat storage in the absence of bottom boundary constraints. Results indicate that there is good agreement between observed fluxes and GCM simulated fluxes for the 1780-1980 period when the GCM simulated temperatures are coupled to the LSM with deep BBC. These results emphasize the importance of placing a deep BBC in GCM soil components for the proper simulation of the overall continental heat budget. In addition, the agreement between the LSM surface fluxes and the borehole temperature reconstructed fluxes lends additional support to the overall quality of the GCM (ECHO-G) paleoclimatic simulations

Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors

Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the global annual surface air temperature (SAT) field and associated global area-weighted mean annual temperature (GMAT) are derived in a collection of pseudoproxy experiments for the past millennium. Pseudoproxies are modeled from temperature (T), precipitation (P), T + P, and VS-Lite (VSL), a nonlinear and multivariate proxy system model for tree ring widths. Spatial patterns of reconstruction skill and spectral bias for the T + P and VSL-derived CFRs are similar to those previously shown using temperature-only pseudoproxies but demonstrate overall degraded skill and spectral bias for SAT reconstruction. Analysis of GMAT spectra nevertheless suggests that the true GMAT frequency spectrum is resolved by those pseudoproxies (T, T + P, and VSL) that contain some temperature information. The results suggest that mixed temperature and moisture-responding paleoclimate data may produce actual GMAT reconstructions with skill, error, and spectral characteristics like those expected from univariate and linear temperature responders, but spatially resolved CFR results should be analyzed cautiousl

The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates

The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation model has undergone significant development in recent years. Most notable is the treatment of horizontal discretisation which has undergone transition from a staggered E-grid to an orthogonal curvilinear C-grid. The treatment of subgridscale mixing has been improved by the inclusion of a new formulation of bottom boundary layer (BBL) slope convection, an isopycnal diffusion scheme, and a Gent and McWilliams style eddy-induced mixing parameterisation. The model setup described here has a north pole over Greenland and a south pole on the coast of the Weddell Sea. This gives relatively high resolution in the sinking regions associated with the thermohaline circulation. Results are presented from a 450 year climatologically forced integration. The forcing is a product of the German Ocean Model Intercomparison Project and is derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis. The main emphasis is on the model's representation of key quantities that are easily associated with the ocean's role in the global climate system. The global and Atlantic northward poleward heat transports have peaks of 1.43 and 0.84 PW, at 18degrees and 21degrees N respectively. The Atlantic meridional overturning streamfunction has a peak of 15.7 Sv in the North Atlantic and an outflow of 11.9 Sv at 30degrees S. Comparison with a simulation excluding BBL shows that the scheme is responsible for up to a 25% increase in North Atlantic heat transport, with significant improvement of the depths of convection in the Greenland, Labrador and Irminger Seas. Despite the improvements, comparison with observations shows the heat transport still to be too weak. Other outstanding problems include an incorrect Gulf Stream pathway, a too strong Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a too weak renewal of Antarctic Intermediate Water. Nevertheless, the model has been coupled to the atmospheric GCM ECHAM5 and run successfully for over 250 years without any surface flux corrections. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture

This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Data on climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic characteristics were matched for 37 612 individual farms across the EU-15. Farmland values across Europe are sensitive to climate. Even with the adaptation captured by the Ricardian technique, farms in Southern Europe are predicted to suffer sizeable losses (8% -13% per degree Celsius) from warming. In contrast, agriculture in the rest of Europe is likely to see only mixed impacts. Increases (decreases) in rain will increase (decrease) average farm values by 3% per centiliter of precipitation. Aggregate impacts by 2100 vary depending on the climate model scenario from a loss of 8% in a mild scenario to a loss of 44% in a harsh scenario