341 research outputs found

    Pricing Scheme of Ocean Carrier for Inbound Container Storage for Assistance of Container Supply Chain Finance

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    The aim of this paper is to investigate the pricing scheme of ocean carrier for inbound container storage so as to assist container supply chain finance. In this paper, how an ocean carrier should set price of inbound container storage to the customer while facing the contract from the container terminal operator is first analyzed. Then, two different contract systems, the free-time contract system which is widely used in practice and the free-space contract system which is newly developed recently, are considered. In the two different contract systems, inbound container storage pricing models are constructed, and accordingly optimal solution approaches for the ocean carrier are provided. For comparison purpose, some numerical experiments for the two different contract systems are conducted to investigate the effects of the container terminal operator’s decision on the system outcomes. Numerical experiments show that (1) the carrier is more flexible in the free-space contract system and can receive more profit by using the free-storage-space as a pooling storage system and (2) the free-space contract system benefits both the carrier in profit and the busy terminal in traffic control

    Forecasting Oil Price Trends with Sentiment of Online News Articles

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    AbstractWith the rapid development of the Internet and big data technologies, a rich of online data (including news releases) can helpfully facilitate forecasting oil price trends. Accordingly, this study introduces sentiment analysis, a useful big data analysis tool, to understand the relevant information of online news articles and formulate an oil price trend prediction method with sentiment. Three main steps are included in the proposed method, i.e., sentiment analysis, relationship investigation and trend prediction. In sentiment analysis, the sentiment (or tone) is extracted based on a dictionary-based approach to capture the relevant online information concerning oil markets and the driving factors. In relationship investigation, the Granger causality analysis is conducted to explore whether and how the sentiment impacts oil price. In trend prediction, the sentiment is used as an important independent variable, and some popular forecasting models, e.g., logit regression, support vector machine, decision tree and back propagation neural network, are performed. With crude oil futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and news articles of the Thomson Reuters as studying samples, the empirical results statistically support the powerful predictive power of sentiment for oil price trends and hence the effectiveness of the proposed method

    Dependences and volatility spillovers between the oil and stock markets: New evidence from the copula and VAR-BEKK-GARCH models

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    This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the oil market and stock markets from two perspectives: dependence between the crude oil market (WTI) and stock markets of the US and China, and volatility spillovers between them during 1991-2016. We further analyze structural breaks of market dependences and consider the extent of their influence on such relationships. Our vine-copula results show that the dependences between the three paired markets, WTI-US, WTI-China and US-China, vary dynamically across the six identified structural break periods. In particular, the dependence between WTI-US is stronger and more volatile than that between WTI-China during most of the periods. The dependence between US-China remains at a lower level in the earlier periods, but increases in the final period. Our VAR-BEKK-GARCH results demonstrate distinctive volatility spillovers across these periods, with varying directionality, in response to the structural changes. Overall, our results indicate that the oil market stimulates rapid and continual fluctuations in market dependences, which become manifest most acutely in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis of 2007-08, demonstrating the increasing interdependence between the oil and stock markets. Further, the growing influence of China on the dynamics of these relationships, in the period following the Great Recession, presents evidence that it begins to assume an increasingly important role in global economic recovery

    The contribution of cosmic rays to global warming

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    A search has been made for a contribution of the changing cosmic ray intensity to the global warming observed in the last century. The cosmic ray intensity shows a strong 11 year cycle due to solar modulation and the overall rate has decreased since 1900. These changes in cosmic ray intensity are compared to those of the mean global surface temperature to attempt to quantify any link between the two. It is shown that, if such a link exists, the changing cosmic ray intensity contributes less than 8% to the increase in the mean global surface temperature observed since 1900.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in J. of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial physic

    On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget

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    We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are estimates for the radiative forcing, temperature change and CRF variations relative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole, the Cretaceous, the Eocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, the 20th century, as well as the 11-yr solar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate sensitivity to both changes in the CRF, Phi_CR, and the radiative budget, F, under equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate driver, we find that the sensitivity to CRF variations is consistently fitted with mu := -Phi_0 (dT_global/ d Phi_CR) = 6.5 +/- 2.5 K (where Phi_0 is the CR energy flux today). Additionally, the sensitivity to radiative forcing changes is lambda := dT_global/ dF_0 = 0.35 +/- 0.09 K/(W/m^2), at the current temperature, while its temperature derivative is negligible with d lambda / dT_0 = 0.01 +/- 0.03 1/(W/m^2). If the observed CRF/climate link is ignored, the best sensitivity obtained is lambda = 0.54 +/- 0.12 K/(W/m^2) and d lambda / dT_0 = -0.02 +/- 0.05 1/(W/m^2). The CRF/climate link therefore implies that the increased solar luminosity and reduced CRF over the previous century should have contributed a warming of 0.37+/-0.13 K, while the rest should be mainly attributed to anthropogenic causes. Without any effect of cosmic rays, the increase in solar luminosity would correspond to an increased temperature of 0.16+/-0.04 K.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, submitted to JGR-Atmosphere

    Flexible a-IGZO phototransistor for instantaneous and cumulative UV-exposure monitoring for skin health

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    Flexible thin‐film phototransistors based on amorphous indium‐gallium‐zinc‐oxide semiconductor and a novel read‐out scheme allow for both real time and cumulative measurement of the ultraviolet light intensity. Furthermore, encapsulation in polydimethylsiloxane and lamination to human skin, as well as mechanical stability of the device is presented
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