Effects of Temperature on Emergence and Seasonality of West Nile Virus in California

Temperature has played a critical role in the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission throughout California from its introduction in 2003 through establishment by 2009. We compared two novel mechanistic measures of transmission risk, the temperature-dependent ratio of virus extrinsic incubation period to the mosquito gonotrophic period (BT), and the fundamental reproductive ratio (R0) based on a mathematical model, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of receptivity to viral amplification. Maps of BT and R0 were created at 20-km scale and compared throughout California to seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks at half-month intervals. Overall, estimates of BT and R0 agreed with intensity of transmission measured by the frequency of sentinel chicken seroconversions. Mechanistic measures such as these are important for understanding how temperature affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission and for delineating risk estimates useful to inform vector control agency intervention decisions and communicate outbreak potential

Technical, economic and environmental evaluation of advanced tertiary treatments for micropollutants removal (oxidation and adsorption)

International audienceTwo pilots for tertiary treatment, an advanced oxidation processes (AOP - O3/UV/H2O2) pilot and a granular activated carbon pilot, were tested in three different wastewater treatment plants after a secondary treatment. A total of 64 micropollutants including drugs, pesticides, alkylphenols, PAHs and metals were analysed in the samples at the inlet and the outlet of the pilots. The tertiary treatments studied (ozone, AOP and activated carbon) were efficient for the removal of most of the compounds analysed in this study, except metals. The addition of hydrogen peroxide to ozone increased the number of substances well removed but it did not improve the removal of substances that readily react with ozone (such as betablockers or carbamazepine). The other AOP (ozone/H2O2 and UV/H2O2) did not improve the number of substances well removed in comparison with ozone alone. The granular activated carbon was still efficient (R>70%) after 6 months working 24/7 for most of the drugs and the urea and triazine pesticides. The 5 technologies studied were sized at full scale in order to calculate their cost for two sizes of WWTP. The implementation of a tertiary treatment on a 60 000 to 200 000 PE WWTP would increase the wastewater treatment cost by 1,5 to 17,6 euros cents per cubic meter treated according to the technology and the removal objective. Concerning the environmental impact, for the big WWTP, the activated carbon is more impacting than the other processes for most of the impacts calculated. The order of POA by increasing environmental impact is ozone < ozone/H2O2 < ozone/UV ~ UV/H2O2. For the medium size WWTP however, the activated carbon is comparable to the other solutions regarding environmental impact

Expanding Access to Parasite-based Malaria Diagnosis through Retail Drug shops in Tanzania: Evidence from a Randomized Trial and Implications for Treatment.

Tanzania has seen a reduction in the fraction of fevers caused by malaria, likely due in part to scale-up of control measures. While national guidelines require parasite-based diagnosis prior to treatment, it is estimated that more than half of suspected malaria treatment-seeking in Tanzania initiates in the private retail sector, where diagnosis by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy is illegal. This pilot study investigated whether the introduction of RDTs into Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) under realistic market conditions would improve case management practices.\ud Dispensers from ADDOs in two intervention districts in Tanzania were trained to stock and perform RDTs and monitored quarterly. Each district was assigned a different recommended retail price to evaluate the need for a subsidy. Malaria RDT and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) uptake and availability were measured pre-intervention and 1 year post-intervention through structured surveys of ADDO owners and exiting customers in both intervention districts and one contiguous control district. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used to compare the three districts and identify predictive variables for testing. A total of 310 dispensers from 262 ADDOs were trained to stock and perform RDTs. RDT availability in intervention ADDOs increased from 1% (n = 172) to 73% (n = 163) during the study; ACT medicines were available in 75% of 260 pre-intervention and 68% of 254 post-intervention ADDOs. Pre-treatment testing performed within the ADDO increased from 0 to 65% of suspected malaria patients who visited a shop (95% CI 60.8-69.6%) with no difference between intervention districts. Overall parasite-based diagnosis increased from 19 to 74% in intervention districts and from 3 to 18% in the control district. Prior knowledge of RDT availability (aOR = 1.9, p = 0.03) and RDT experience (aOR = 1.9, p = 0.01) were predictors for testing. Adherence data indicated that 75% of malaria positives received ACT, while 3% of negatives received ACT. Trained and supervised ADDO dispensers in rural Tanzania performed and sold RDTs under real market conditions to two-thirds of suspected malaria patients during this one-year pilot. These results support the hypothesis that introducing RDTs into regulated private retail sector settings can improve malaria testing and treatment practices without an RDT subsidy. Trial registration ISRCTN ISRCTN14115509

Improving access to care and community health in Haiti with optimized community health worker placement

The national deployment of polyvalent community health workers (CHWs) is a constitutive part of the strategy initiated by the Ministry of Health to accelerate efforts towards universal health coverage in Haiti. Its implementation requires the planning of future recruitment and deployment activities for which mathematical modelling tools can provide useful support by exploring optimised placement scenarios based on access to care and population distribution. We combined existing gridded estimates of population and travel times with optimisation methods to derive theoretical CHW geographical placement scenarios including constraints on walking time and the number of people served per CHW. Four national-scale scenarios that align with total numbers of existing CHWs and that ensure that the walking time for each CHW does not exceed a predefined threshold are compared. The first scenario accounts for population distribution in rural and urban areas only, while the other three also incorporate in different ways the proximity of existing health centres. Comparing these scenarios to the current distribution, insufficient number of CHWs is systematically identified in several departments and gaps in access to health care are identified within all departments. These results highlight current suboptimal distribution of CHWs and emphasize the need to consider an optimal (re-)allocation

Topography and malaria transmission heterogeneity in western Kenya highlands: prospects for focal vector control

BACKGROUND: Recent resurgence of malaria in the highlands of Western Kenya has called for a more comprehensive understanding of the previously neglected complex highland vector ecology. Besides other drivers of malaria epidemiology, topography is likely to have a major effect on spatial vector and parasite distribution. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of topography on malaria spatial vector distribution and parasite prevalence. METHODOLOGY: Indoor resting adult malaria vectors and blood parasites were collected in three villages along a 4 km transect originating from the valley bottom and ending at the hilltop for 13 months. Members of the Anopheles gambiae complex were identified by PCR. Blood parasites were collected from children 6–13 years old and densities categorized by site of home location and age of the children. RESULTS: Ninety eight percent (98%) of An. gambiae s.s. and (99%) Anopheles funestus were collected in houses located at the edge of the valley bottom, whereas 1% of An. gambiae s.s. were collected at mid hill and at the hilltop respectively. No An. funestus were collected at the hilltop. Malaria prevalence was 68% at the valley bottom, 40.2% at mid hill and 26.7% at the hilltop. Children aged six years and living at the edge of the valley bottom had an annual geometric mean number of 66.1 trophozoites for every 200 white blood cells, while those living at mid-hill had a mean of 84.8, and those living at hilltop had 199.5 trophozoites. CONCLUSION: Malaria transmission in this area is mainly confined to the valley bottom. Effective vector control could be targeted at the foci. However, the few vectors observed at mid-hill maintained a relatively high prevalence rate. The higher variability in blood parasite densities and their low correlation with age in children living at the hilltop suggests a lower stability of transmission than at the mid-hill and valley bottom

Endemicity response timelines for Plasmodium falciparum elimination

Background: The scaling up of malaria control and renewed calls for malaria eradication have raised interest in defining timelines for changes in malaria endemicity. Methods: The epidemiological theory for the decline in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR, the prevalence of infection) following intervention was critically reviewed and where necessary extended to consider superinfection, heterogenous biting, and aging infections. Timelines for malaria control and elimination under different levels of intervention were then established using a wide range of candidate mathematical models. Analysis focused on the timelines from baseline to 1% and from 1% through the final stages of elimination. Results: The Ross-Macdonald model, which ignores superinfection, was used for planning during the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP). In models that consider superinfection, PfPR takes two to three years longer to reach 1% starting from a hyperendemic baseline, consistent with one of the few large-scale malaria control trials conducted in an African population with hyperendemic malaria. The time to elimination depends fundamentally upon the extent to which malaria transmission is interrupted and the size of the human population modelled. When the PfPR drops below 1%, almost all models predict similar and proportional declines in PfPR in consecutive years from 1% through to elimination and that the waiting time to reduce PfPR from 10% to 1% and from 1% to 0.1% are approximately equal, but the decay rate can increase over time if infections senesce. Conclusion: The theory described herein provides simple "rules of thumb" and likely time horizons for the impact of interventions for control and elimination. Starting from a hyperendemic baseline, the GMEP planning timelines, which were based on the Ross-Macdonald model with completely interrupted transmission, were inappropriate for setting endemicity timelines and they represent the most optimistic scenario for places with lower endemicity. Basic timelines from PfPR of 1% through elimination depend on population size and low-level transmission. These models provide a theoretical basis that can be further tailored to specific control and elimination scenarios

Entomological Surveillance of Behavioural Resilience and Resistance in Residual Malaria Vector Populations.

The most potent malaria vectors rely heavily upon human blood so they are vulnerable to attack with insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) within houses. Mosquito taxa that can avoid feeding or resting indoors, or by obtaining blood from animals, mediate a growing proportion of the dwindling transmission that persists as ITNs and IRS are scaled up. Increasing frequency of behavioural evasion traits within persisting residual vector systems usually reflect the successful suppression of the most potent and vulnerable vector taxa by IRS or ITNs, rather than their failure. Many of the commonly observed changes in mosquito behavioural patterns following intervention scale-up may well be explained by modified taxonomic composition and expression of phenotypically plastic behavioural preferences, rather than altered innate preferences of individuals or populations. Detailed review of the contemporary evidence base does not yet provide any clear-cut example of true behavioural resistance and is, therefore, consistent with the hypothesis presented. Caution should be exercised before over-interpreting most existing reports of increased frequency of behavioural traits which enable mosquitoes to evade fatal contact with insecticides: this may simply be the result of suppressing the most behaviourally vulnerable of the vector taxa that constituted the original transmission system. Mosquito taxa which have always exhibited such evasive traits may be more accurately described as behaviourally resilient, rather than resistant. Ongoing national or regional entomological monitoring surveys of physiological susceptibility to insecticides should be supplemented with biologically and epidemiologically meaningfully estimates of malaria vector population dynamics and the behavioural phenotypes that determine intervention impact, in order to design, select, evaluate and optimize the implementation of vector control measures

Invasion and Persistence of Infectious Agents in Fragmented Host Populations

One of the important questions in understanding infectious diseases and their prevention and control is how infectious agents can invade and become endemic in a host population. A ubiquitous feature of natural populations is that they are spatially fragmented, resulting in relatively homogeneous local populations inhabiting patches connected by the migration of hosts. Such fragmented population structures are studied extensively with metapopulation models. Being able to define and calculate an indicator for the success of invasion and persistence of an infectious agent is essential for obtaining general qualitative insights into infection dynamics, for the comparison of prevention and control scenarios, and for quantitative insights into specific systems. For homogeneous populations, the basic reproduction ratio plays this role. For metapopulations, defining such an ‘invasion indicator’ is not straightforward. Some indicators have been defined for specific situations, e.g., the household reproduction number . However, these existing indicators often fail to account for host demography and especially host migration. Here we show how to calculate a more broadly applicable indicator for the invasion and persistence of infectious agents in a host metapopulation of equally connected patches, for a wide range of possible epidemiological models. A strong feature of our method is that it explicitly accounts for host demography and host migration. Using a simple compartmental system as an example, we illustrate how can be calculated and expressed in terms of the key determinants of epidemiological dynamics

Ensemble Modeling of the Likely Public Health Impact of a Pre-Erythrocytic Malaria Vaccine

Using an ensemble modeling approach, Thomas Smith and colleagues find that targeted mass vaccination with a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S in low-transmission settings might have better health effects than vaccination through national EPI programs