Driving the blue fleet: Temporal variability and drivers behind bluebottle (Physalia physalis) beachings off Sydney, Australia

Physalia physalis, the bluebottle in Australia, are colonial siphonophores that live at the surface of the ocean, mainly in tropical and subtropical waters. P. physalis are sometimes present in large swarms, and with tentacles capable of intense stings, they can negatively impact public health and commercial fisheries. P. physalis, which does not swim, is advected by ocean currents and winds acting on its gas-filled sail. While previous studies have attempted to model the drift of P. physalis, little is known about its sources, distribution, and the timing of its arrival to shore. In this study, we present a dataset with four years of daily P. physalis beachings and stings reports at three locations off Sydney's coast in Australia. We investigate the spatial and temporal variability of P. physalis presence (beachings and stings) in relation to different environmental parameters. This dataset shows a clear seasonal pattern where more P. physalis beachings occur in the Austral summer and less in winter. Cold ocean temperatures do not hinder the presence of P. physalis and the temperature seasonal cycle and that observed in P. physalis presence/absence time-series are out of phase by 3-4 months. We identify wind direction as the major driver of the temporal variability of P. physalis arrival to the shore, both at daily and seasonal time-scales. The differences observed between sites of the occurrence of beaching events is consistent with the geomorphology of the coastline which influences the frequency and direction of favorable wind conditions. We also show that rip currents, a physical mechanism occurring at the scale of the beach, can be a predictor of beaching events. This study is a first step towards understanding the dynamics of P. physalis transport and ultimately being able to predict its arrival to the coast and mitigating the number of people who experience painful stings and require medical help

Awareness without learning: A preliminary study exploring the effects of beachgoer's experiences on risk taking behaviours

Most drowning deaths on Australian beaches occur in locations not patrolled by lifeguards. At patrolled locations, where lifeguards supervise flagged areas in which beachgoers are encouraged to swim between, the incidence of drowning is reduced. To date, risk prevention practices on coasts focus on patrolled beaches, deploying warning signs at unpatrolled locations with the aim of raising public awareness of risk. What remains unexplored is the potential for learning and behaviour change that can transfer from patrolled to unpatrolled beaches through beachgoer's experiences and interactions with lifeguards. The aim of this preliminary study is to explore the risk perceptions of beachgoers at a patrolled beach to establish if and how their experiences of beach risk and interactions with lifeguards affect their behaviours. Data was collected in Gerroa, Australia by engaging 49 beachgoers using a mixed survey-interview methodology. Results show that beachgoers are aware that they should ‘swim between the flags’, but many did not know the basis for the positioning of safety flags. A key finding is that beachgoer's express a clear desire for a skills-based model of community engagement that enables learning with lifeguards. This demonstrates a reflective public that desires skill-development, which may transfer from patrolled to unpatrolled beaches to affect broader risk reduction on the Australian coast. Learning how to avoid site-specific rip hazards with lifeguards at the beach presents a promising, and previously unexplored model for beach drowning risk prevention that has the potential to affect behaviour at unpatrolled beaches, providing an empirically-supported alternative to prevailing deficit-based awareness raising methods

Use of spatiotemporal analysis of laboratory submission data to identify potential outbreaks of new or emerging diseases in cattle in Great Britain

BACKGROUND: New and emerging diseases of livestock may impact animal welfare, trade and public health. Early detection of outbreaks can reduce the impact of these diseases by triggering control measures that limit the number of cases that occur. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prospective spatiotemporal methods could be used to identify outbreaks of new and emerging diseases in scanning surveillance data. SaTScan was used to identify clusters of unusually high levels of submissions where a diagnosis could not be reached (DNR) using different probability models and baselines. The clusters detected were subjected to a further selection process to reduce the number of false positives and a more detailed epidemiological analysis to ascertain whether they were likely to represent real outbreaks. RESULTS: 187,925 submissions of clinical material from cattle were made to the Regional Laboratory of the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA) between 2002 and 2007, and the results were stored on the VLA FarmFile database. 16,925 of these were classified as DNRs and included in the analyses. Variation in the number and proportion of DNRs was found between syndromes and regions, so a spatiotemporal analysis for each DNR syndrome was done. Six clusters were identified using the Bernoulli model after applying selection criteria (e.g. size of cluster). The further epidemiological analysis revealed that one of the systemic clusters could plausibly have been due to Johne's disease. The remainder were either due to misclassification or not consistent with a single diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses have demonstrated that spatiotemporal methods can be used to detect clusters of new or emerging diseases, identify clusters of known diseases that may not have been diagnosed and identify misclassification in the data, and highlighted the impact of data quality on the ability to detect outbreaks. Spatiotemporal methods should be used alongside current temporal methods for analysis of scanning surveillance data. These statistical analyses should be followed by further investigation of possible outbreaks to determine whether cases have common features suggesting that these are likely to represent real outbreaks, or whether issues with the collection or processing of information have resulted in false positives

Telemetry tails: a practical method for attaching animal-borne devices to small vertebrates in the field

Context. Continued miniaturisation of tracking technology increases its utility in animal applications. However, species morphology often dictates the type of animal-borne device (ABD) that can be used, and how it is attached. The morphology of species within Peramelemorphia preclude them from the standard collar attachment of ABDs for terrestrial mammals. Aims. This paper describes a method for the tail-mount attachment of ABDs, and deployment results for Peramelemorphia across arid, semi-arid and temperate Australia to (a) test the performance of attachments and ABDs in the field and (b) discuss the animal welfare considerations for this attachment method. Methods. Tail-mount attachment of ABDs were field-tested on a total of 80 greater bilbies (Macrotis lagotis), and 14 long-nosed bandicoots (Perameles nasuta). Key results. Time to natural detachment (TTND) was between 2 and 52 days, with 65.74% (142 of 216) remaining on until manual removal. For ABDs that were manually removed, attachments were retained for up to 94 days. The method used for tail-mount attachment of ABDs to long-nosed bandicoots resulted in significantly shorter TTND compared with the method used for bilbies, and environmental factors (high temperatures and rainfall) had a negative effect on TTND. Tail-mount attached global positioning system (GPS) sensors collected large quantities of accurate data, with a maximum fix success rate of 83.38%. Damage to GPS (antenna breakage and water ingress) during deployment, however, impacted performance. In environments with frequent rainfall and waterlogged soils, the tape on a small proportion (6.25%) of (n = 192)attachments to bilbies caused tail injury. All injuries were resolvable, with most requiringminimal to no veterinary intervention. Key conclusions. Attachment longevity can be affectedby how the ABD is mounted to the tail, the species and the deployment environment. Theenvironment can also affect which adhesive tapes are suitable for ABD attachment. However, thismethod is highly modifiable, practical for field application and can have long retention timesrelative to other temporary methods. Implications. This ABD tail-mount attachment methodadds another tool to the telemetry tool-kit, with all the benefits of a low-tech, low-cost, passivedrop-off type attachment. This method has demonstrated practicality for Peramelemorphia, withpotential application to other suitable small vertebrates

Medication Persistence Rates and Factors Associated with Persistence in Patients Following Stroke: A Cohort Study

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Building connectomes using diffusion MRI: why, how and but

Why has diffusion MRI become a principal modality for mapping connectomes in vivo? How do different image acquisition parameters, fiber tracking algorithms and other methodological choices affect connectome estimation? What are the main factors that dictate the success and failure of connectome reconstruction? These are some of the key questions that we aim to address in this review. We provide an overview of the key methods that can be used to estimate the nodes and edges of macroscale connectomes, and we discuss open problems and inherent limitations. We argue that diffusion MRI-based connectome mapping methods are still in their infancy and caution against blind application of deep white matter tractography due to the challenges inherent to connectome reconstruction. We review a number of studies that provide evidence of useful microstructural and network properties that can be extracted in various independent and biologically-relevant contexts. Finally, we highlight some of the key deficiencies of current macroscale connectome mapping methodologies and motivate future developments

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

The global abundance of tree palms

Aim: Palms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change. Location: Tropical and subtropical moist forests. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Palms (Arecaceae). Methods: We assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co‐occurring non‐palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure. Results: On average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long‐term climate stability. Life‐form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non‐tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above‐ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work. Conclusions: Tree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests