On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based on forecasted precipitation derived from the Ensemble extended forecast model (ENS) of the ECMWF, and on forecasted monthly occurrence anomalies of weather regimes (MOAWRs), also derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that the MOAWRs approach outperforms the one based on forecasted precipitation in winter in the north-eastern parts of the European continent, where more than 65&thinsp;% of droughts are detected 1 month in advance. The approach based on forecasted precipitation achieves better performance in predicting drought events in central and eastern Europe in both spring and summer, when the local atmospheric forcing could be the key driver of the precipitation. Sensitivity tests also reveal the challenges in predicting small-scale droughts and drought onsets at longer lead times. Finally, the results show that the ENS model of the ECMWF successfully represents most of the observed linkages between large-scale atmospheric patterns, depicted by the weather regimes and drought events over Europe.</p

The turbulent structure and diurnal growth of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer

The turbulent structure and growth of the remote Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is described with in situ radiosonde and aircraft measurements and a large-eddy simulation model. A month of radiosonde data from June 2011 provides a mean profile of the midday Saharan ABL, which is characterized by a well-mixed convective boundary layer, capped by a small temperature inversion (<1K) and a deep, near-neutral residual layer. The boundary layer depth varies by up to 100% over horizontal distances of a few kilometers due to turbulent processes alone. The distinctive vertical structure also leads to unique boundary layer processes, such as detrainment of the warmest plumes across the weak temperature inversion, which slows down the warming and growth of the convective boundary layer. As the boundary layer grows, overshooting plumes can also entrain freetropospheric air into the residual layer, forming a second entrainment zone that acts to maintain the inversion above the convective boundary layer, thus slowing down boundary layer growth further.Asingle-column model is unable to accurately reproduce the evolution of the Saharan boundary layer, highlighting the difficulty of representing such processes in large-scale models. These boundary layer processes are special to the Sahara, and possibly hot, dry, desert environments in general, and have implications for the large-scale structure of the Saharan heat low. The growth of the boundary layer influences the vertical redistribution of moisture and dust, and the spatial coverage and duration of clouds, with large-scale dynamical and radiative implications

The effects of activating a “baby brain” stereotype on pregnant women’s cognitive functioning

Throughout pregnancy and into the immediate postpartum period, women are generally perceived to be incompetent, stressed, and forgetful. However, the neuropsychological “baby brain” literature remains unclear and contradictory. Across two studies, we provide the first experimental tests of whether perceived cognitive impairment in pregnancy can be explained by stereotype threat theory, which proposes that awareness of negative stereotypes about one’s ingroup can harm performance. In Study 1 (N = 364), we tested stereotype threat effects in a 2 (stereotype threat versus no threat) × 3 (pregnant women versus new mothers versus never-pregnant female control) design. We observed a main effect of group on memory performance (pregnant women and new mothers performed worse than controls), but no other main or interactive effects. Study 2 (N = 409) aimed to extend these research questions with mathematics ability, memory, and attention as the dependent variables. Again, we found that a stereotype threat manipulation did not impair pregnant women and new mothers’ cognitive performance, nor was there any interactive effects. Groups also did not differ in their performance. We discuss these results in the context of stereotype threat mechanisms, calling into question whether a stereotype threat paradigm can be applied effectively to pregnancy-related stereotypes. This work has implications for the advancement of stereotype threat as a theory and contributes to the reappraisal of the utility of stereotype threat as a way of understanding how stereotypes affect performance

Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model response to climate change but suffers from a lack of an explanation. To this aim, we study the impact of current and future climate change on Sahel precipitation by using the Large Ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In CESM1, global warming leads to a strengthening of the zonal contrast, as shown by the difference between the 2060–2099 period (under a high emission scenario) and the 1960–1999 period (under the historical forcing). The zonal contrast is associated with dynamic shifts in the atmospheric circulation. We show that, in absence of a forced response, that is, when only accounting for internal climate variability, the zonal contrast is associated with the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic oceans variability. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are not necessary to explaining the projected strengthening of the zonal contrast. The mechanisms underlying the simulated changes are elucidated by analysing a set of CMIP5 idealised simulations. We show the increase in precipitation over the central Sahel to be mostly associated with the surface warming over northern Africa, which favour the displacement of the monsoon cell northwards. Over the western Sahel, the decrease in Sahel precipitation is associated with a southward shift of the monsoon circulation, and is mostly due to the warming of the SST. These two mechanisms allow explaining the zonal contrast in precipitation change

Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) : an integrated project for understanding of the West African climate system and its human dimension

The intraseasonal time scale is critical in West Africa where resources are highly rainfall dependent. Three main modes of variability have been identified, two with a mean periodicity of 15 days and one with a mean periodicity around 40 days. These modes have a regional scale and can strongly influence precipitation and convective activity. They are mainly controlled by atmospheric dynamics and land-surface interactions. They can also modulate the very specific phase of the African summer monsoon onset. A better knowledge of the mechanisms controlling this scale is necessary to improve its predictability. Copyright

Meteorological and dust aerosol conditions over the western Saharan region observed at Fennec Supersite-2 during the intensive observation period in June 2011

The climate of the Sahara is relatively poorly observed and understood, leading to errors in forecast model simulations. We describe observations from the Fennec Supersite-2 (SS2) at Zouerate, Mauritania during the June 2011 Fennec Intensive Observation Period. These provide an improved basis for understanding and evaluating processes, models, and remote sensing. Conditions during June 2011 show a marked distinction between: (i) a "Maritime phase" during the early part of the month when the western sector of the Sahara experienced cool northwesterly maritime flow throughout the lower troposphere with shallow daytime boundary layers, very little dust uplift/transport or cloud cover. (ii) A subsequent "heat low" phase which coincided with a marked and rapid westward shift in the Saharan heat low towards its mid-summer climatological position and advection of a deep hot, dusty air layer from the central Sahara (the "Saharan residual layer"). This transition affected the entire western-central Sahara. Dust advected over SS2 was primarily from episodic low-level jet (LLJ)-generated emission in the northeasterly flow around surface troughs. Unlike Fennec SS1, SS2 does not often experience cold pools from moist convection and associated dust emissions. The diurnal evolution at SS2 is strongly influenced by the Atlantic inflow (AI), a northwesterly flow of shallow, cool and moist air propagating overnight from coastal West Africa to reach SS2 in the early hours. The AI cools and moistens the western Saharan and weakens the nocturnal LLJ, limiting its dust-raising potential. We quantify the ventilation and moistening of the western flank of the Sahara by (i) the large-scale flow and (ii) the regular nocturnal AI and LLJ mesoscale processes. Key Points First detailed observations from western Sahara sector Intraseasonal shift in Saharan heat low drives meteorological/aerosol conditions Atlantic Inflow interaction with low level jet

Impact of atmospheric transport on the evolution of microphysical and optical properties of Saharan dust

Saharan dust affects the climate by altering the radiation balance and by depositing minerals to the Atlantic Ocean. Both are dependent on particle size. We present aircraft measurements comprising 42 profiles of size distribution (0.1-300 μm), representing freshly uplifted dust, regional aged dust, and dust in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Canary Islands. The mean effective diameter of dust in SAL profiles is 4.5 μm smaller than that in freshly uplifted dust, while the vertical structure changes from a low shallow layer (0-1.5 km) to a well-mixed deep Saharan dust layer (0-5 km). Size distributions show a loss of 60 to 90% of particles larger than 30 μm 12 h after uplift. The single scattering albedo (SSA) increases from 0.92 to 0.94 to 0.95 between fresh, aged, and SAL profiles: this is enough to alter heating rates by 26%. Some fresh dust close to the surface shows SSA as low as 0.85