Gold as an inflation hedge?

This paper attempts to reconcile an apparent contradiction between short-run and long-run movements in the price of gold. The theoretical model suggests a set of conditions under which the price of gold rises over time at the general rate of inflation and hence be an effective hedge against inflation. The model also demonstrates that short-run changes in the gold lease rate, the real interest rate, convenience yield, default risk, the covariance of gold returns with other assets and the dollar/world exchange rate can disturb this equilibrium relationship and generate short-run price volatility. Using monthly gold price data (1976-1999), and cointegration regression techniques, an empirical analysis confirms the central hypotheses of the theoretical model

Interacting with information and robotics systems

The aim of this paper is to present the results obtained during the project 131-CEEX/2006, INTEROB: Interacting by Gestures with Information and Robotics Systems for the time frame 2006-2008. The project focused on natural interaction using gesture recognition technology applied in various applications such as: virtual environments, augmented reality, collaborative working and interaction with robotics systems

Modelling spectral and timing properties of accreting black holes: the hybrid hot flow paradigm

The general picture that emerged by the end of 1990s from a large set of optical and X-ray, spectral and timing data was that the X-rays are produced in the innermost hot part of the accretion flow, while the optical/infrared (OIR) emission is mainly produced by the irradiated outer thin accretion disc. Recent multiwavelength observations of Galactic black hole transients show that the situation is not so simple. Fast variability in the OIR band, OIR excesses above the thermal emission and a complicated interplay between the X-ray and the OIR light curves imply that the OIR emitting region is much more compact. One of the popular hypotheses is that the jet contributes to the OIR emission and even is responsible for the bulk of the X-rays. However, this scenario is largely ad hoc and is in contradiction with many previously established facts. Alternatively, the hot accretion flow, known to be consistent with the X-ray spectral and timing data, is also a viable candidate to produce the OIR radiation. The hot-flow scenario naturally explains the power-law like OIR spectra, fast OIR variability and its complex relation to the X-rays if the hot flow contains non-thermal electrons (even in energetically negligible quantities), which are required by the presence of the MeV tail in Cyg X-1. The presence of non-thermal electrons also lowers the equilibrium electron temperature in the hot flow model to <100 keV, making it more consistent with observations. Here we argue that any viable model should simultaneously explain a large set of spectral and timing data and show that the hybrid (thermal/non-thermal) hot flow model satisfies most of the constraints.Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures. To be published in the Space Science Reviews and as hard cover in the Space Sciences Series of ISSI - The Physics of Accretion on to Black Holes (Springer Publisher

Oralism: a sign of the times? The contest for deaf communication in education provision in late nineteenth-century Scotland

Disability history is a diverse field. In focussing upon children within deaf education in late nineteenth-century Scotland, this essay reflects some of that diversity. In 1880, the International Congress on the Education of the Deaf in Milan stipulated that speech should have ‘preference’ over signs in the education of deaf children. The mode of achieving this, however, effectively banned sign language. Endeavours to teach deaf children to articulate were not new, but this decision placed pressures on deaf institutions to favour the oral system of deaf communication over other methods. In Scotland efforts were made to adopt oralism, and yet educators were faced with the reality that this was not good educational practice for most pupils. This article will consider responses of Scottish educators of deaf children from the 1870s until the beginning of the twentieth century

Computer simulation of recrystallization in non-uniformly deformed metals

The classical Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK) equation [F = 1 - exp(- kt)n] for nucleation and growth transformations works very well for most solid state transformations but fails regularly when applied to recrystallization of plastically deformed metals. Under conditions of near constant growth rate, a high exponent (n [ges] 3) is predicted but low exponents (n [les] 2) are typically measured. Another common observation is that the slope of a JMAK plot, from which the exponent is inferred, decreases as recrystallization proceeds. Analysis of the published data suggested the hypothesis that the failure of the JMAK theory as applied to recrystallization is because of the lack of uniformity of the stored energy of plastic deformation on the grain size scale. This hypothesis was tested by use of Monte Carlo simulations of the type previously used successfully to model grain growth and recrystallization. The earlier simulations of recrystallization used uniform stored energies whereas the simulations presented here varied the stored energy from grain to grain. The kinetics were plotted on JMAK plots which exhibited low and varying exponents closely resembling experimental data. Specific simulations were performed to test the basic JMAK assumption that makes a correction for the effect of impingement under conditions of random nucleation, namely dF/dFe = (1 - F), where F is the actual volume fraction and Fe is the extended volume fraction--that which would obtain in the absence of impingement and overlap between new grains. It was found the assumption is accurate under conditions of uniform stored energy. With non-uniform stored energy, however, the correction underestimated the effect of impingement by a factor that rapidly increased (to over two orders of magnitude) during recrystallization.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/28082/1/0000528.pd

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET

A phase relationship is identified between sequential edge localized modes (ELMs) occurrence times in a set of H-mode tokamak plasmas to the voltage measured in full flux azimuthal loops in the divertor region. We focus on plasmas in the Joint European Torus where a steady H-mode is sustained over several seconds, during which ELMs are observed in the Be II emission at the divertor. The ELMs analysed arise from intrinsic ELMing, in that there is no deliberate intent to control the ELMing process by external means. We use ELM timings derived from the Be II signal to perform direct time domain analysis of the full flux loop VLD2 and VLD3 signals, which provide a high cadence global measurement proportional to the voltage induced by changes in poloidal magnetic flux. Specifically, we examine how the time interval between pairs of successive ELMs is linked to the time-evolving phase of the full flux loop signals. Each ELM produces a clear early pulse in the full flux loop signals, whose peak time is used to condition our analysis. The arrival time of the following ELM, relative to this pulse, is found to fall into one of two categories: (i) prompt ELMs, which are directly paced by the initial response seen in the flux loop signals; and (ii) all other ELMs, which occur after the initial response of the full flux loop signals has decayed in amplitude. The times at which ELMs in category (ii) occur, relative to the first ELM of the pair, are clustered at times when the instantaneous phase of the full flux loop signal is close to its value at the time of the first ELM

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees