Risk based Fatigue Inspection Planning – State of the Art

AbstractThe present paper presents the methodology and the practical calculations for risk based inspection planning of fatigue cracks in welded offshore steel structures. Due to the uncertainty in the variables involved in the problem the planning has to be carried out by stochastic modeling and risk based assessments. Scatter in potential crack growth has to be analyzed by applied probabilistic facture mechanics and the uncertainty in the performance of the actual inspection technique has to be determined. With given risk acceptance criteria the practical outcome of the analyses is recommended inspection techniques and associated planned inspection time intervals. The classical theory is briefly outlined and the latest recommendations from a Joint Industry Project recently completed in Norway are included. A practical case study for life extension of an oil loading system in the North Sea is presented

Probabilistic models for the fatigue resistance of welded steel joints subjected to constant amplitude loading

S-N curves found in various rules and regulations are the basic tool for the practicing engineer when carrying out life predictions for welded details in dynamically loaded structures. The present work is investigating the expected fatigue life and associated scatter for welded steel joints subjected to Constant Amplitude (CA) loading. The objective is to obtain more reliable life predictions based on advancements in the probabilistic model fitted to collected life data. A Random Fatigue Limit Model (RFLM) is proposed to obtain fatigue resistance curves at given probability levels of survival. As a distinction to more conventional statistical methods, the model is treating both the fatigue life and the fatigue limit as random variables. The focus is on high cycle fatigue and long-life data and runouts are included in a rational and logical manner by using a maximum likelihood method. Life data for a transverse fillet welded attachment originally designated as a category 71 detail in Eurocode 3 Part 1-9 are collected and analysed. The plate thickness of the specimens ranges from 20 mm to 32 mm and the steel quality is mild and medium strength Carbon-Manganese steel. The results are compared with the results obtained by conventional S-N curves. The compatibility between the fitted probabilistic models and the underlying fatigue damage mechanisms is emphasized.publishedVersio

Crack growth models for multiaxial fatigue in a ship's propeller shaft

Abstract A premature fatigue failure of a large intermediate propeller shaft in a shuttle tanker is discussed and analyzed. The short fatigue life consists mainly of a crack growth phase. Life predictions are carried out by crack growth modelling based on engineering fracture mechanics. The purpose of the present investigation is to identify the most likely loading modes based on the evolution of the crack propagation. A Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics Model (LEFM) is applied with the stress intensity factor range entering the Paris law as a key parameter. Existing formulas for the geometry functions are supplemented by more detailed stress intensity factor calculations pertaining to small semi-elliptical surface cracks subjected to stress mode I. Enhanced geometry functions are proposed as a function of the relative crack depth and the crack shape aspect ratio. The ability of the fracture mechanics model to reconstruct the observed crack path and crack shape development is emphasized. Various loading modes and multi-axial stress states are applied to pursue the observed crack behavior. The observed semi-elliptical crack shapes and the shift in crack planes are included in the analysis

Radiotherapy for marginally resected, unresectable or recurrent giant cell tumor of the bone: a rare cancer network study

The role of radiotherapy for local control of marginally resected, unresectable, and recurrent giant cell tumors of bone (GCToB) has not been well defined. The number of patients affected by this rare disease is low. We present a series of 58 patients with biopsy proven GCToB who were treated with radiation therapy. A retrospective review of the role of radiotherapy in the treatment of GCToB was conducted in participating institutions of the Rare Cancer Network. Eligibility criteria consisted of the use of radiotherapy for marginally resected, unresectable, and recurrent GCToB. Fifty-eight patients with biopsy proven GCToB were analyzed from 9 participating North American and European institutions. Forty-five patients had a primary tumor and 13 patients had a recurrent tumor. Median radiation dose was 50 Gy in a median of 25 fractions. Indication for radiation therapy was marginal resection in 33 patients, unresectable tumor in 13 patients, recurrence in 9 patients and palliation in 2 patients. Median tumor size was 7.0 cm. A significant proportion of the tumors involved critical structures. Median follow-up was 8.0 years. Five year local control was 85% . Of the 7 local failures, 3 were treated successfully with salvage surgery. All patients who received palliation achieved symptom relief. Five year overall survival was 94%. None of the patients experienced grade 3 or higher acute toxicity. This study reports a large published experience in the treatment of GCToB with radiotherapy. Radiotherapy can provide excellent local control for incompletely resected, unresectable or recurrent GCToB with acceptable morbidity

Elite Suppressor–Derived HIV-1 Envelope Glycoproteins Exhibit Reduced Entry Efficiency and Kinetics

Elite suppressors (ES) are a rare subset of HIV-1–infected individuals who are able to maintain HIV-1 viral loads below the limit of detection by ultra-sensitive clinical assays in the absence of antiretroviral therapy. Mechanism(s) responsible for this elite control are poorly understood but likely involve both host and viral factors. This study assesses ES plasma-derived envelope glycoprotein (env) fitness as a function of entry efficiency as a possible contributor to viral suppression. Fitness of virus entry was first evaluated using a novel inducible cell line with controlled surface expression levels of CD4 (receptor) and CCR5 (co-receptor). In the context of physiologic CCR5 and CD4 surface densities, ES envs exhibited significantly decreased entry efficiency relative to chronically infected viremic progressors. ES envs also demonstrated slow entry kinetics indicating the presence of virus with reduced entry fitness. Overall, ES env clones were less efficient at mediating entry than chronic progressor envs. Interestingly, acute infection envs exhibited an intermediate phenotypic pattern not distinctly different from ES or chronic progressor envs. These results imply that lower env fitness may be established early and may directly contribute to viral suppression in ES individuals

Bound star clusters observed in a lensed galaxy 460 Myr after the Big Bang

The Cosmic Gems arc is among the brightest and highly magnified galaxies observed at redshift z ≈ 10.2 (ref. 1). However, it is an intrinsically ultraviolet faint galaxy, in the range of those now thought to drive the reionization of the Universe2–4. Hitherto the smallest features resolved in a galaxy at a comparable redshift are between a few hundreds and a few tens of parsecs (pc)5, 6. Here we report JWST observations of the Cosmic Gems. The light of the galaxy is resolved into five star clusters located in a region smaller than 70 pc. They exhibit minimal dust attenuation and low metallicity, ages younger than 50 Myr and intrinsic masses of about 106M⊙. Their lensing-corrected sizes are approximately 1 pc, resulting in stellar surface densities near 105M⊙ pc−2, three orders of magnitude higher than typical young star clusters in the local Universe7. Despite the uncertainties inherent to the lensing model, they are consistent with being gravitationally bound stellar systems, that is, proto-globular clusters. We conclude that star cluster formation and feedback likely contributed to shaping the properties of galaxies during the epoch of reionization

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Effect of remote ischaemic conditioning on clinical outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI): a single-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Remote ischaemic conditioning with transient ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm has been shown to reduce myocardial infarct size in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). We investigated whether remote ischaemic conditioning could reduce the incidence of cardiac death and hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months. METHODS: We did an international investigator-initiated, prospective, single-blind, randomised controlled trial (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI) at 33 centres across the UK, Denmark, Spain, and Serbia. Patients (age >18 years) with suspected STEMI and who were eligible for PPCI were randomly allocated (1:1, stratified by centre with a permuted block method) to receive standard treatment (including a sham simulated remote ischaemic conditioning intervention at UK sites only) or remote ischaemic conditioning treatment (intermittent ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm through four cycles of 5-min inflation and 5-min deflation of an automated cuff device) before PPCI. Investigators responsible for data collection and outcome assessment were masked to treatment allocation. The primary combined endpoint was cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02342522) and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Nov 6, 2013, and March 31, 2018, 5401 patients were randomly allocated to either the control group (n=2701) or the remote ischaemic conditioning group (n=2700). After exclusion of patients upon hospital arrival or loss to follow-up, 2569 patients in the control group and 2546 in the intervention group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. At 12 months post-PPCI, the Kaplan-Meier-estimated frequencies of cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure (the primary endpoint) were 220 (8·6%) patients in the control group and 239 (9·4%) in the remote ischaemic conditioning group (hazard ratio 1·10 [95% CI 0·91-1·32], p=0·32 for intervention versus control). No important unexpected adverse events or side effects of remote ischaemic conditioning were observed. INTERPRETATION: Remote ischaemic conditioning does not improve clinical outcomes (cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure) at 12 months in patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, University College London Hospitals/University College London Biomedical Research Centre, Danish Innovation Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, TrygFonden