Characteristics of the summit lakes of Ambae volcano and their potential for generating lahars

Volcanic eruptions through crater lakes often generate lahars, causing loss of life and property. On Ambae volcano, recent eruptive activities have rather tended to reduce the water volume in the crater lake (Lake Voui), in turn, reducing the chances for outburst floods. Lake Voui occupies a central position in the summit caldera and is well enclosed by the caldera relief. Eruptions with significantly higher magnitude than that of 1995 and 2005 are required for an outburst. A more probable scenario for lahar events is the overflow from Lake Manaro Lakua bounded on the eastern side by the caldera wall. Morphology and bathymetry analysis have been used to identify the weakest point of the caldera rim from which water from Lake Manaro Lakua may overflow to initiate lahars. The 1916 disaster described on south-east Ambae was possibly triggered by such an outburst from Lake Manaro Lakua. Taking into account the current level of Lake Manaro Lakua well below a critical overflow point, and the apparently low potential of Lake Voui eruptions to trigger lahars, the Ambae summit lakes may not be directly responsible for numerous lahar deposits identified around the Island

Renminbi Internationalisation: Precedents and Implications

While it is commonly assumed that there are no known precedents against which to benchmark the internationalisation of the Renminbi (RMB), this paper argues that the PRCs own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. In particular it indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s developed financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise receipts from foreign trade as well as minimise the risks of undue swings in capital flows. The paper shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions and as such Hong Kong’s role in mitigating the risk of undue capital swings remains

Regularization of Linear Ill-posed Problems by the Augmented Lagrangian Method and Variational Inequalities

We study the application of the Augmented Lagrangian Method to the solution of linear ill-posed problems. Previously, linear convergence rates with respect to the Bregman distance have been derived under the classical assumption of a standard source condition. Using the method of variational inequalities, we extend these results in this paper to convergence rates of lower order, both for the case of an a priori parameter choice and an a posteriori choice based on Morozov's discrepancy principle. In addition, our approach allows the derivation of convergence rates with respect to distance measures different from the Bregman distance. As a particular application, we consider sparsity promoting regularization, where we derive a range of convergence rates with respect to the norm under the assumption of restricted injectivity in conjunction with generalized source conditions of H\"older type

Bifurcated homeland and diaspora politics in China and Taiwan towards the Overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia

The conventional literature on diaspora politics tends to focus on one ‘homeland’ state and its relations with ‘sojourning’ diaspora around the world. This paper examines an instance of ‘bifurcated homeland:’ the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan) since 1949. The paper investigates the changing dynamics of China's and Taiwan's diaspora policies towards Overseas Chinese communities in Southeast Asia throughout the Cold War and post-Cold War periods. They were affected by their ideological competition, the rise of Chinese nationalism, and the ‘indigenisation’ of Taiwanese identity. Illustrating such changes through the case of the KMT Yunnanese communities in Northern Thailand, this paper makes two interrelated arguments. First, we should understand relations through the lens of interactive dynamics between international system-level changes and domestic political transformations. Depending on different normative underpinnings of the international system, the foundations of regime legitimacy have changed. Subsequently, the nature of relations between the diaspora and the homeland(s) transformed from one that emphasises ideological differences during the Cold War, to one infused with nationalist authenticity in the post-Cold War period. Second, the bifurcated nature of the two homelands also created mutual influences on their diaspora policies during periods of intense competition

Allocation to highly sensitized patients based on acceptable mismatches results in low rejection rates comparable to non-sensitized patients

Whereas regular allocation avoids unacceptable mismatches on the donor organ, allocation to highly sensitized patients within the Eurotransplant Acceptable Mismatch (AM) program is based on the patient's HLA phenotype plus acceptable antigens. These are HLA antigens to which the patient never made antibodies, determined by extensive laboratory testing. AM patients have superior long-term graft survival compared to highly sensitized patients in regular allocation. Here, we questioned whether the AM program also results in lower rejection rates. From the PROCARE cohort, consisting of all Dutch kidney transplants 1995-2005, we selected deceased donor single transplants with minimum one HLA mismatch and determined the cumulative 6-month rejection incidence for patients in AM or regular allocation. Additionally, we determined the effect of minimal matching criteria of one HLA-B plus one HLA-DR, or two HLA-DR antigens on rejection incidence. AM patients showed significantly lower rejection rates than highly immunized patients in regular allocation, comparable to non-sensitized patients, independent of other risk factors for rejection. Contrasting to highly sensitized patients in regular allocation, minimal matching criteria did not affect rejection rates in AM patients. Allocation based on acceptable antigens leads to relatively low risk transplants for highly sensitized patients with rejection rates similar to non-immunized individuals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.</p

Paternity and Dominance Loss in Male Breeders: The Cost of Helpers in a Cooperatively Breeding Mammal

Paternity insurance and dominance tenure length are two important components of male reproductive success, particularly in species where reproduction is highly skewed towards a few individuals. Identifying the factors affecting these two components is crucial to better understand the pattern of variation in reproductive success among males. In social species, the social context (i.e. group size and composition) is likely to influence the ability of males to secure dominance and to monopolize reproduction. Most studies have analyzed the factors affecting paternity insurance and dominance tenure separately. We use a long term data set on Alpine marmots to investigate the effect of the number of subordinate males on both paternity insurance and tenure of dominant males. We show that individuals which are unable to monopolize reproduction in their family groups in the presence of many subordinate males are likely to lose dominance the following year. We also report that dominant males lose body mass in the year they lose both paternity and dominance. Our results suggest that controlling many subordinate males is energetically costly for dominant males, and those unable to support this cost lose the control over both reproduction and dominance. A large number of subordinate males in social groups is therefore costly for dominant males in terms of fitness

Improvement of the Welfare Quality scoring model for dairy cows to fit experts' opinion

After several years of implementation, the original Welfare Quality scoring model for dairy cows appears to be highly sensitive to the number and cleanliness of drinkers and not enough to the prevalence of diseases, and as a consequence may not fit the opinion of some animal welfare experts. The present paper aims to improve the Welfare Quality calculations for the criteria 'Absence of prolonged thirst' and 'Absence of disease' in dairy cows, so that the results are more sensitive to input data and better fit experts' opinion. First, we modified the calculation of 'Absence of prolonged thirst' by linearising the calculation for drinkers' availability to avoid threshold effects. Second, we modified the calculation of 'Absence of disease' by applying a Choquet integral on the three lowest spline-based scores for each health disorder to limit compensation between health disorders. Third, we performed a global sensitivity analysis of the original and the alternative scoring models. Fourth, we compared the results obtained with the original and the alternative models with eight experts' opinions on two subsets composed of 44 and 60 farms, respectively, inspected using the Welfare Quality protocol and on which experts gave their opinion on the overall level of animal welfare. Results show that the alternative model significantly reduced the 'threshold effects' related to the number of drinkers and the compensation between health disorders. On the first subset, the alternative model fits the experts' opinion slightly better than the original model (P = 0.061). On the second subset, the models performed equally. In conclusion, the proposed refinements for calculating scores are validated since they significantly reduced 'threshold effects' and the influence of measures related to drinkers. It also reduced the compensation between health disorders by considering only the three lowest scores and thus increasing the influence of measures related to health disorders, and slightly improve at overall score level the accordance with experts' opinion

PIRCHE-II Is Related to Graft Failure after Kidney Transplantation

Individual HLA mismatches may differentially impact graft survival after kidney transplantation. Therefore, there is a need for a reliable tool to define permissible HLA mismatches in kidney transplantation. We previously demonstrated that donor-derived Predicted Indirectly ReCognizable HLA Epitopes presented by recipient HLA class II (PIRCHE-II) play a role in de novo donor-specific HLA antibodies formation after kidney transplantation. In the present Dutch multi-center study, we evaluated the possible association between PIRCHE-II and kidney graft failure in 2,918 donor–recipient couples that were transplanted between 1995 and 2005. For these donors–recipients couples, PIRCHE-II numbers were related to graft survival in univariate and multivariable analyses. Adjusted for confounders, the natural logarithm of PIRCHE-II was associated with a higher risk for graft failure [hazard ratio (HR): 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04–1.23, p = 0.003]. When analyzing a subgroup of patients who had their first transplantation, the HR of graft failure for ln(PIRCHE-II) was higher compared with the overall cohort (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10–1.34, p &lt; 0.001). PIRCHE-II demonstrated both early and late effects on graft failure in this subgroup. These data suggest that the PIRCHE-II may impact graft survival after kidney transplantation. Inclusion of PIRCHE-II in donor-selection criteria may eventually lead to an improved kidney graft survival

Le diagnostic anténatal modifie-t-il la prise en charge néonatale et le devenir à 1 an des enfants suivis pour atrésie de l’œsophage de type III ?

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate neonatal management and outcome of neonates with either a prenatal or a post-natal diagnosis of EA type III. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based study using data from the French National Register for EA from 2008 to 2010. We compared children with prenatal versus post-natal diagnosis in regards to prenatal, maternal and neonatal characteristics. We define a composite variable of morbidity (anastomotic esophageal leaks, recurrent fistula, stenosis) and mortality at 1 year. RESULTS: Four hundred and eight live births with EA type III were recorded with a prenatal diagnosis rate of 18.1%. Transfer after birth was lower in prenatal subset (32.4% versus 81.5%, P&lt;0.001). Delay between birth and first intervention was not significantly different. Defect size (2cm vs 1.4cm, P&lt;0.001), gastrostomy (21.6% versus 8.7%, P&lt;0.001) and length in neonatal unit care were higher in prenatal subset (47.9 days versus 33.6 days, P&lt;0.001). The composite variables were higher in prenatal diagnosis subset (38.7% vs 26.1%, P=0.044). CONCLUSION: Despite the excellent survival rate of EA, cases with antenatal detection have a higher morbidity related to the EA type (longer gap). Even if it does not modify neonatal management and 1-year outcome, prenatal diagnosis allows antenatal parental counseling and avoids post-natal transfer