Beyond the Classroom: Applying a Business Process Model of Weather Forecasting to Aviation Meteorology

Modern weather analysis and forecasting has become a very complex enterprise, with aspects that are purely scientific, and others that are business operations-related. At Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University\u27s Daytona Beach campus, a business process model of the weather forecasting enterprise has been used as a teaching tool in the undergraduate course Forecasting Techniques. The model consists of two major, interrelated components, known as the Weather Information Processing Cycle (WIPC), and the Provider-User Relationship (FUR). The WIPC describes forecasting from the traditional scientific point of view, but contains user-focused processes such as product tailoring, dissemination, and user integration in addition to the familiar scientific processes such as data collection, analysis, and prediction. The PUR examines the business relationship between the provider of meteorological information and the user of that information. While the PUR provides a bridge for students to progress from studying basic forecasting techniques in the WIPC to examining the business relationship between weather information providers and users, there are applications of this model beyond the classroom. This paper introduces the model and shows how it can be applied to investigate the relationship between aviation weather information providers and users, using examples from the interagency Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) program

The Tornado that Struck Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University on Christmas Day, 2006: Lessons Learned from a Near-Miss

An F2 tornado that touched down in Daytona Beach on Christmas Day afternoon caused over $50 million of damage to the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University campus and nearby neighborhoods. The tornado was part of a severe-weather outbreak over Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina that began during the overnight hours of 25 December 2006. Examination of surface and upper-level meteorological charts and vertical soundings on the morning of 25 December showed stability and wind-shear conditions favorable for tornadic thunderstorms over this region. The evolution of the squall line that moved through east-central Florida, and the parent thunderstorm that produced the tornado was examined using meteorological data from the Next Generation Doppler Radar, and Daytona Beach International Airport’s Automated Surface Observing System and Low Level Wind Shear Alert System. Non-meteorological data included eyewitness accounts from the Embry-Riddle Campus Safety Department and the airport tower’s air traffic controllers. These data sources were used to construct a timeline for the squall line’s passage, tornado touchdown at the east end of the airport’s runway 7L/25R complex, and subsequent damage path across the Embry-Riddle campus. A reconstruction of the damage path using fall semester enrollments and class locations estimated that between 400 and 500 people would have been in the tornado’s path had it occurred during a typical Monday afternoon when classes were in session. Additionally, Comair Flight 580, enroute to Daytona Beach from New York, was scheduled to land at the same time the tornado touched down at the airport, but a power outage in the radar approach control facility caused the flight to deviate from its scheduled track. Fortunately, the crew established contact with Daytona Tower and were guided to a safe landing about 25 minutes after the tornado hit. Lessons learned from this case are outlined in the form of a protocol that can be adopted by collegiate aviation programs and airport management, patterned after the four phases of emergency management: (a) mitigation, (b) preparedness, (c) response, and (d) recovery

The New Aviation Meteorology Specialization in the Graduate Aeronautics Program at Embry-Riddle

The next 12 months will be an exciting time of growth in graduate aviation studies at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University\u27s Daytona Beach, FL campus. Beginning in Fall Semester 2009, a new Area of Concentration (AOC) in Aviation Meteorology will be added to the Master of Science in Aeronautics (MSA) program, and the new Doctoral program in Aviation will be starting in January 2010. The Aviation Meteorology AOC adds a crucial specialty to the existing MSA options in Air Traffic Management, Aviation/Aerospace Education Technology, Aviation/Aerospace Management, Aviation/Aerospace Operations, and Aviation/Aerospace Safety Systems. The Aviation Meteorology AOC is designed to be a cross-disciplinary program that will be very important as we enter the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) era. In order to make the transition from today\u27s operations in which critical functions such as weather and air traffic control are largely separate, to the NextGen era with its collaborative decision-making and probabilistic decision assistance tools, people are needed who can be equally conversant and comfortable across multiple functional areas—precisely the types of individuals we are aiming to produce with this program. The NextGen concepts of Weather/Air Traffic Management Integration, Weather Technology in the Cockpit, Trajectory Based Operations, and Collaborative Decision-making will require professionals trained to think outside of traditional “stove-piped” functions. The market for individuals with cross-disciplinary graduate training in both meteorology and aviation will expand as the Federal Government, industry, and academia build the NextGen system over the next 15 years. The AOC in Aviation Meteorology revolves around a four-course sequence consisting of a graduate survey course in meteorology, an advanced aviation meteorology course, a research seminar that focuses on special topics, and a choice of dual-credit 400-level courses in applied meteorology such as statistical applications. Additionally, students will have the option of a six-credit M.S. thesis, which will allow them to work alongside graduate faculty and industry partners who are doing cutting-edge research, so that a graduate from this AOC could have as many as half of his/her credits in advanced aviation meteorology by the time the program is completed. Initial response from the student body has been enthusiastic, as evidenced by an experimental graduate seminar in Weather and Air Traffic Integration this summer that drew students with backgrounds in commercial and private aviation, applied meteorology, and engineering physics

General Aviation Weather Encounter Case Studies

This study presents a compilation of 24 cases involving general aviation (GA) pilots’ weather encounters over the continental U.S. The project team interviewed pilots who had experienced a weather encounter, and we examined their backgrounds, flight experience, and weather encounter details. Results from meteorological data analysis for each weather encounter were consistent with findings of larger GA weather accident studies in terms of the types of hazards encountered and flight phase during which the encounters occurred. Investigation of pilot weather products and the sources from which they were obtained revealed a lack of uniformity of pre-flight data sources and underutilization of available en route flight information services. The team used these results to develop a set of pilot weather education and training recommendations intended to reduce the number and severity of weather encounters

A Proposed Taxonomy for General Aviation Pilot Weather Education and Training

As General Aviation (GA) safety continues to remain a focus of the aviation community, GA pilot weather education and training continues to be an active area of interest within the research community. This study introduces a taxonomy for organizing GA pilot weather education and training materials that was originally conceived as part of the FAA’s Weather Technology In the Cockpit research program. The taxonomy is built upon three main knowledge categories, or tiers:1) Weather Phenomena (which includes hazards); 2) Weather Hazard Products; and 3) Weather Hazard Product Sources and their Application. The concept behind the categorization is to link knowledge of basic meteorological concepts/theory, hazards, and hazard products to the application of that knowledge to make correct aeronautical decisions about the weather in all phases of flight, including planning. The application tier of the taxonomy is particularly important in today’s operating environment, where many commercial weather products and hand-portable applications are available to the GA community. These products and applications are not intended to teach pilots about weather; it is assumed that the pilot has an adequate weather background and understands the uses and limitations of these products. Our research and that of others on GA pilot education and training suggests that this may not be the case, thus the need for a methodology that “connects the dots” from theory to application. The “version 1.0” of the taxonomy contains these three tiers with two to three subcategories contained within each. Each subcategory itself can contain a number of individual topic areas. The taxonomy was developed by a subject matter expert team consisting of two aviation meteorologists, a certificated flight instructor with a meteorological background (who recently completed a Ph.D. in Aviation), a human factors psychologist, and two human factors doctoral students. The taxonomy’s potential applications in the education and training environment are also presented

Developing Proactive Methods for General Aviation Data Collection

Introduction. Over the last 20 years, nearly 40,000 general aviation (GA) aircraft were involved in accidents, roughly 20% of which were fatal. To address this safety concern, scientists have often relied on accident data. Because of the rare nature of accidents, commercial aviation incident and near miss data may prove to be useful sources of safety information. In one such study, the National Transportation Safety Board interviewed GA pilots that were flying near a weather-related accident in pursuit of a different perspective than that of the accident pilot. Interviewing GA pilots about their own weather-related event may provide similar benefits. Method. To understand factors leading GA pilots to encounter adverse weather conditions, pilots involved in an adverse weather encounter were interviewed using a one-hour structured interview. The interview was developed using surveys utilized by National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In total, 27 pilots who experienced an adverse weather encounter were interviewed, of which 25 were included in the final analysis. Results. Previous studies conducted by the FAA and others found many GA accidents involving flight into adverse weather were categorized as a willful disregard for the rules and regulations of safety; violations as defined by the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System. Contrary to what the accident record seems to suggest, flight into adverse weather may also be influenced by the lack of appreciation/understanding of the hazards associated with adverse weather. Perhaps some encounters with adverse weather were motivated by outside influences or exacerbated by some manner of mechanical failure that may have led to the willful acceptance of unnecessary hazards. Conclusions. These data suggest that current beliefs surrounding flight into adverse weather by GA pilots may be incomplete. The data presented here suggest that additional effort should be placed in training, both ab initio and recurrent. Emphasis should be placed on ensuring a full understanding of the adverse impact of weather, including the recognition of instrument meteorological conditions, icing, convective events, etc. Likewise, with the proliferation of commercial weather products and on-board weather equipment, it may be time to move toward some form of standard weather package that all pilots would review before flying

Combined Report: Aviation Weather Knowledge Assessment & General Aviation (GA) Pilots’ Interpretation of Weather Products

Prior research has indicated that general aviation (GA) pilots may lack adequate knowledge of aviation weather concepts and skill at interpreting aviation weather displays. Therefore, the purpose of the current project was to develop and validate a comprehensive set of aviation weather knowledge and interpretation multiple-choice questions, and in turn, to use the questions to assess pilot understanding of aviation weather concepts and displays. An interdisciplinary research team that included two meteorologists, one Gold Seal Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI), a human factors psychologist, and several human factors graduate students performed this research

Simulation of potential impacts of man-made land use changes on U.S. summer climate under various synoptic regimes

This study evaluates impacts of land use changes due to human settlement on regional summer climate over the central and western United States by performing 30-day simulations during normal, drought, and flood years. Under current land use the simulated evapotranspiration increased noticeably over the central United States where grassland has been replaced by crops. Simulated evapotranspiration decreased slightly in the western United States. These changes produced wetter and cooler surface air over the central United States and slightly drier and warmer air over the western United States. Responses of surface fluxes and thus screen height variables to land use changes were consistent from year to year, whereas rainfall showed strong interannual variations because of the combination of various dynamic processes involved in precipitation. For normal year conditions, average evapotranspiration and rainfall under current land use increased by 18% and 8%, respectively, over the central United States, whereas they slightly decreased in the western United States. In both flood and drought years, current land use exhibited a rainfall increase in the western United States and a decrease over the central United States. The decrease of rainfall with increased evapotranspiration in the central United States was likely associated with weakening of the dynamic forcing needed to produce precipitation