193 research outputs found
Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission
Incorporation of ‘social’ variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection —a highly social process in human populations—may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Emile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of ‘social currents.’ Such ‘currents’ are what we might today describe as ‘emergent properties,’ specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to repre
Modeling sediment mobilization using a distributed hydrological model coupled with a bank stability model
In addition to surface erosion, stream bank erosion and failure contributes significant sediment and sediment-bound nutrients to receiving waters during high flow events. However, distributed and mechanistic simulation of stream bank sediment contribution to sediment loads in a watershed has not been achieved. Here we present a full coupling of existing distributed watershed and bank stability models and apply the resulting model to the Mad River in central Vermont. We fully coupled the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM) with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to allow the simulation of stream bank erosion and potential failure in a spatially explicit environment. We demonstrate the model\u27s ability to simulate the impacts of unstable streams on sediment mobilization and transport within a watershed and discuss the model\u27s capability to simulate watershed sediment loading under climate change. The calibrated model simulates total suspended sediment loads and reproduces variability in suspended sediment concentrations at watershed and subbasin outlets. In addition, characteristics such as land use and road-to-stream ratio of subbasins are shown to impact the relative proportions of sediment mobilized by overland erosion, erosion of roads, and stream bank erosion and failure in the subbasins and watershed. This coupled model will advance mechanistic simulation of suspended sediment mobilization and transport from watersheds, which will be particularly valuable for investigating the potential impacts of climate and land use changes, as well as extreme events
Height and timing of growth spurt during puberty in young people living with vertically acquired HIV in Europe and Thailand.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe growth during puberty in young people with vertically acquired HIV. DESIGN: Pooled data from 12 paediatric HIV cohorts in Europe and Thailand. METHODS: One thousand and ninety-four children initiating a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or boosted protease inhibitor based regimen aged 1-10 years were included. Super Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) models described growth from age 8 years using three parameters (average height, timing and shape of the growth spurt), dependent on age and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) (WHO references) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Multivariate regression explored characteristics associated with these three parameters. RESULTS: At ART initiation, median age and HAZ was 6.4 [interquartile range (IQR): 2.8, 9.0] years and -1.2 (IQR: -2.3 to -0.2), respectively. Median follow-up was 9.1 (IQR: 6.9, 11.4) years. In girls, older age and lower HAZ at ART initiation were independently associated with a growth spurt which occurred 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.20-0.62) years later in children starting ART age 6 to 10 years compared with 1 to 2 years and 1.50 (1.21-1.78) years later in those starting with HAZ less than -3 compared with HAZ at least -1. Later growth spurts in girls resulted in continued height growth into later adolescence. In boys starting ART with HAZ less than -1, growth spurts were later in children starting ART in the oldest age group, but for HAZ at least -1, there was no association with age. Girls and boys who initiated ART with HAZ at least -1 maintained a similar height to the WHO reference mean. CONCLUSION: Stunting at ART initiation was associated with later growth spurts in girls. Children with HAZ at least -1 at ART initiation grew in height at the level expected in HIV negative children of a comparable age
The syntax of ‘-cā’ (*-kwe) in Ahunavaiti Gāthā
This paper seeks to provide a full description of the syntactic behaviour of the enclitic co-ordinate conjunction -cā in the earliest stage of the Avestan language. By studying the occurrences of the particle in Ahunavaiti Gāthā, a distributive analysis is provided together with an interpretative hypothesis of its distributive dynamics. Two syntactic levels, phrase and sentence, are taken into consideration. Finally, a syntactic domain-based variation is argued and two clitic functional variants are identified as synchronically operating conjunction strategies
A function-based typology for Earth’s ecosystems
As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’(1,2). Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management(3). Ecosystems vary in their biota(4), service provision(5) and relative exposure to risks(6), yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework
A function-based typology for Earth’s ecosystems
As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework
Unbearability of suffering at the end of life: the development of a new measuring device, the SOS-V
AbstractBackgroundUnbearable suffering is an important issue in end-of-life decisions. However, there has been no systematic, prospective, patient-oriented research which has focused on unbearable suffering, nor is there a suitable measurement instrument. This article describes the methodological development of a quantitative instrument to measure the nature and intensity of unbearable suffering, practical aspects of its use in end-stage cancer patients in general practice, and studies content validity and psychometric properties.MethodsRecognizing the conceptual difference between unbearability of suffering and extent or intensity of suffering, we developed an instrument. The compilation of aspects considered to be of importance was based on a literature search. Psychometric properties were determined on results of the first interviews with 64 end-stage cancer patients that participated in a longitudinal study in the Netherlands.ResultsThe instrument measures five domains: medical signs and symptoms, loss of function, personal aspects, aspects of environment, and nature and prognosis of the disease. Sixty nine aspects were investigated, and an overall score was asked. In 64 end-stage cancer patients the instrument was used in total 153 times with an average interview time varying from 20-40 minutes. Cronbachs alpha's of the subscales were in majority above 0.7. The sum scores of (sub)scales were correlated strongly to overall measures on suffering.ConclusionThe SOS-V is an instrument for measuring the unbearability of suffering in end-stage cancer patients with good content validity and psychometric properties, which is feasible to be used in practice. This structured instrument makes it possible to identify and study unbearable suffering in a quantitative and patient-oriented way
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