A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections, applied to Chinese catchments

This is the final version. Available from the European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record.The discussion paper version of this article was published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions and is available in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34612There is a growing desire for reliable 21st-century projections of water availability at the regional scale. Global climate models (GCMs) are typically used together with global hydrological models (GHMs) to generate such projections. GCMs alone are unsuitable, especially if they have biased representations of aridity. The Budyko framework represents how water availability varies as a non-linear function of aridity and is used here to constrain projections of runoff from GCMs, without the need for computationally expensive GHMs. Considering a Chinese case study, we first apply the framework to observations to show that the contribution of direct human impacts (water consumption) to the significant decline in Yellow River runoff was greater than the contribution of aridity change by a factor of approximately 2, although we are unable to rule out a significant contribution from the net effect of all other factors. We then show that the Budyko framework can be used to narrow the range of Yellow River runoff projections by 34%, using a multi-model ensemble and the high-end Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. This increases confidence that the Yellow River will see an increase in runoff due to aridity change by the end of the 21st century. Yangtze River runoff projections change little, since aridity biases in GCMs are less substantial. Our approach serves as a quick and inexpensive tool to rapidly update and correct projections from GCMs alone. This could serve as a valuable resource when determining the water management policies required to alleviate water stress for future generations.Natural Environment Research CouncilUK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fun

Global neonatal and perinatal mortality: a review and case study for the Loreto Province of Peru

Jamie B Warren,1 William E Lambert,2 Rongwei Fu,2 JoDee M Anderson,1 Alison B Edelman31Department of Pediatrics, 2Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, 3Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USABackground: Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for the reduction of the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. To reach this goal, neonatal mortality must be decreased. The lack of information on global neonatal and perinatal mortality impedes appropriate implementation of interventions, as vital registration systems are not available for the majority of the world's neonatal deaths. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a tool that has been used to determine cause of death. Recent studies have attempted to standardize and validate the use of this tool in resource-limited areas. The World Health Organization (WHO) International Standard VA Questionnaire was used to conduct a needs assessment in nine rural Peruvian villages. The goal was to determine the neonatal mortality rate (NMR), perinatal mortality rate (PMR), and causes of, and risk factors for, death in these villages.Methods: Eligible women were interviewed using the WHO International Standard VA Questionnaire or a set of questions based on the WHO VA Questionnaire. NMR and PMR were calculated using a generalized estimating equation model. Three neonatologists independently reviewed VA records to provide cause of death determination. Reviewer agreement was assessed using percent agreement. Fisher's exact test was used to determine risk factors associated with death.Results: The NMR was 31.4 per 1000 live births and the PMR was 49.7 per 1000 pregnancies. The main contributor to neonatal death was infection (43%). Percent agreement among reviewers was 90.5% and 38.9% for cause of neonatal death and stillbirth, respectively. Risk factors for death were pregnancy with twins (P = 0.001), preterm delivery (P = 0.003), and cesarean section delivery (P = 0.049).Conclusion: The WHO VA proved useful for NMR and PMR calculation, cause of death determination, and risk factor identification. Information gathered in this needs assessment will allow for the design and implementation of tailored interventions.Keywords: neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, verbal autopsy, needs assessmen

The association between nutrition and physical activity knowledge and weight status of primary school educators

The purpose of this study was to investigate primary school educators’ health status, knowledge, perceptions and behaviour regarding nutrition and physical activity.Thus, nutrition and physical activity knowledge, attitudes,  behaviour and risk factors for the development of non-communicable diseases of 155 educators were assessed in a  cross-sectional survey. Height, weight, waist circumference, blood pressure and random glucose levels were  measured. Twenty percent of the sample had normal weight (body mass index (BMI, kg/m²) &lt; 25), 27.7% were  overweight (BMI 25 to < 30) and 52.3% were obese (BMI < 30). Most of the participants were younger than 45  years (54.2%), females 78.1%, resided in urban areas (50.3%), with high blood pressure ( 140/90 mmHg:  50.3%), and were inactive (48.7%) with a high waist circumference (&gt; 82 cm: 57.4%). Educators’ nutrition and  physical activity knowledge was poor. Sixty-nine percent of educators incorrectly believed that eating starchy foods  causes weight gain and only 15% knew that one should eat five or more fruit and/or vegetables per day. Aspects of poor nutritional knowledge, misconceptions regarding actual body weight status, and challenges in changing health behaviours, emerged as issues which need to be addressed among educators. Educators’ high risk for developing chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) may impact on educator absenteeism and subsequently on school  functioning. The aspects of poor nutrition and physical activity knowledge along with educators’ high risk for NCD development may be particularly significant not merely in relation to their personal health but also the learners they teach.Keywords: body weight, educators, health, knowledge, non-communicable diseases, nutrition, perceptions, physical activity, primary schools, risk factor

Charged Chiral Fermions from M5-Branes

We study M5-branes wrapped on a multi-centred Taub-NUT space. Reducing to String Theory on the circle fibration leads to D4-branes intersecting with D6-branes. D-braneology shows that there are additional charged chiral fermions from the open strings which stretch between the D4-branes and D6-branes. From the M-theory point of view the appearance of these charged states is mysterious as the M5-branes are wrapped on a smooth manifold. In this paper we show how these states arise in the M5-brane worldvolume theory and argue that are governed by a WZWN-like model where the topological term is five-dimensional.Comment: A reference to an equation number was correcte

Checkpoints are blind to replication restart and recombination intermediates that result in gross chromosomal rearrangements

Replication fork inactivation can be overcome by homologous recombination, but this can cause gross chromosomal rearrangements that subsequently missegregate at mitosis, driving further chromosome instability. It is unclear when the chromosome rearrangements are generated and whether individual replication problems or the resulting recombination intermediates delay the cell cycle. Here we have investigated checkpoint activation during HR-dependent replication restart using a site-specific replication fork-arrest system. Analysis during a single cell cycle shows that HR-dependent replication intermediates arise in S phase, shortly after replication arrest, and are resolved into acentric and dicentric chromosomes in G2. Despite this, cells progress into mitosis without delay. Neither the DNA damage nor the intra-S phase checkpoints are activated in the first cell cycle, demonstrating that these checkpoints are blind to replication and recombination intermediates as well as to rearranged chromosomes. The dicentrics form anaphase bridges that subsequently break, inducing checkpoint activation in the second cell cycle

Cartan-Weyl 3-algebras and the BLG Theory I: Classification of Cartan-Weyl 3-algebras

As Lie algebras of compact connected Lie groups, semisimple Lie algebras have wide applications in the description of continuous symmetries of physical systems. Mathematically, semisimple Lie algebra admits a Cartan-Weyl basis of generators which consists of a Cartan subalgebra of mutually commuting generators H_I and a number of step generators E^\alpha that are characterized by a root space of non-degenerate one-forms \alpha. This simple decomposition in terms of the root space allows for a complete classification of semisimple Lie algebras. In this paper, we introduce the analogous concept of a Cartan-Weyl Lie 3-algebra. We analyze their structure and obtain a complete classification of them. Many known examples of metric Lie 3-algebras (e.g. the Lorentzian 3-algebras) are special cases of the Cartan-Weyl 3-algebras. Due to their elegant and simple structure, we speculate that Cartan-Weyl 3-algebras may be useful for describing some kinds of generalized symmetries. As an application, we consider their use in the Bagger-Lambert-Gustavsson (BLG) theory.Comment: LaTeX. 34 pages.v2. deleted some distracting paragraphs in the introduction to bring more out the main results of the paper. typos corrected and references adde

Long acting risperidone in Australian patients with chronic schizophrenia: 24-month data from the e-STAR database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This observational study was designed to collect treatment outcomes data in patients using the electronic Schizophrenia Treatment Adherence Registry (e-STAR).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder in Australia who were prescribed risperidone long-acting injection (RLAI) between 2003 and 2007 were assessed 12-months retrospectively, at baseline and 24-months prospectively at 3-monthly intervals. The intent-to-treat population, defined as all patients who received at least one dose of RLAI at baseline, was used for the efficacy and safety analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At total of 784 patients (74% with schizophrenia, 69.8% male) with a mean age of 37.1 ± 12.5 years and 10.6 ± 9.5 years since diagnosis were included in this Australian cohort. A significant improvement in mean Clinical Global Impression - severity score was observed at 24-months (4.52 ± 1.04 at baseline, 3.56 ± 1.10 at 24-months). Most of this improvement was seen by 3-months and was also reflected in mean Global Assessment of Functioning score, which improved significantly at 24-months (42.9 ± 14.5 at baseline, 59 ± 15.4 at 24-months). For patients still receiving RLAI at 24-months there was an increase from a mean baseline RLAI dose of 26.4 ± 5 mg to 43.4 ± 15.7 mg. Sixty-six percent of patients discontinued RLAI before the 24-month period--this decreased to 46% once patients lost to follow-up were excluded.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Over the 24-month period, initiation of RLAI was associated with improved patient functioning and illness severity in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Improved outcomes were observed early and sustained throughout the study.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Clinical Trials Registration Number, <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00283517">NCT00283517</a>.</p

Abelian-Higgs and Vortices from ABJM: towards a string realization of AdS/CMT

We present ans\"{a}tze that reduce the mass-deformed ABJM model to gauged Abelian scalar theories, using the fuzzy sphere matrices $G^\alpha$. One such reduction gives a Toda system, for which we find a new type of nonabelian vortex. Another gives the standard Abelian-Higgs model, thereby allowing us to embed all the usual (multi-)vortex solutions of the latter into the ABJM model. By turning off the mass deformation at the level of the reduced model, we can also continuously deform to the massive $\phi^4$ theory in the massless ABJM case. In this way we can embed the Landau-Ginzburg model into the AdS/CFT correspondence as a consistent truncation of ABJM. In this context, the mass deformation parameter $\mu$ and a field VEV $$ act as $g$ and $g_c$ respectively, leading to a well-motivated AdS/CMT construction from string theory. To further this particular point, we propose a simple model for the condensed matter field theory that leads to an approximate description for the ABJM abelianization. Finally, we also find some BPS solutions to the mass-deformed ABJM model with a spacetime interpretation as an M2-brane ending on a spherical M5-brane.Comment: 43 pages, latex, explanations added in the introduction, end of section 4, and on page 2

Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in clinical trials: A follow-up simulation study

When patients randomised to the control group of a randomised controlled trial are allowed to switch onto the experimental treatment, intention-to-treat analyses of the treatment effect are confounded because the separation of randomised groups is lost. Previous research has investigated statistical methods that aim to estimate the treatment effect that would have been observed had this treatment switching not occurred and has demonstrated their performance in a limited set of scenarios. Here, we investigate these methods in a new range of realistic scenarios, allowing conclusions to be made based upon a broader evidence base. We simulated randomised controlled trials incorporating prognosis-related treatment switching and investigated the impact of sample size, reduced switching proportions, disease severity, and alternative data-generating models on the performance of adjustment methods, assessed through a comparison of bias, mean squared error, and coverage, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. Rank preserving structural failure time models, inverse probability of censoring weights, and two-stage methods consistently produced less bias than the intentionto-treat analysis. The switching proportion was confirmed to be a key determinant of bias: sample size and censoring proportion were relatively less important. It is critical to determine the size of the treatment effect in terms of an acceleration factor (rather than a hazard ratio) to provide information on the likely bias associated with rank-preserving structural failure time model adjustments. In general, inverse probability of censoring weight methods are more volatile than other adjustment methods

HIRDLS poster

A poster supporting the HIRDLS data held at the BADC (High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) instrument)