TRIBAL PLANTS AND THEIR INBORN ANTIMICROBIAL ACTIVITIES

The importance of medicinal plants in traditional health-care practices provides clues to new areas of research and in the biodiversity of conservation. Right from the beginning, the documentation of traditional knowledge, especially on the medicinal uses of plants, has provided many important drugs for the modern day. Even today, this area holds much more hidden treasure as almost 80% of the human population in developing countries depend on plant resources for health care. Keeping this in view, the present study was initiated to document the traditionally used tribal plants and their inborn antimicrobial activity which is enhanced on the synthesis of noble metal nanoparticles

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF STABILITY INDICATING REVERSE PHASE HIGH‑PERFORMANCE LIQUID CHROMATOGRAPHY METHOD FOR SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF ATENOLOL, HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE AND LOSARTAN IN BULK AND PHARMACEUTICAL DOSAGE FORM

ABSTRACTObjective: The objective of present work was to develop and validate a simple, fast, precise, selective and accurate reverse phase high-performanceliquid chromatography method for the simultaneous determination atenolol (ATN), hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) and losartan (LOS) in apharmaceutical dosage form.Methods: The separation of these three drugs was achieved on an SHISHEDO C, 250 mm × 4.6 mm, 5 µ size column with a mobile phase consistingof acetonitrile and 0.5% orthophosphoric acid (30:70 v/v) at a flow rate of 1 ml/minute and UV detection at 224 nm.18Results: The retention times were observed to be 2.242, 3.963 and 6.733 minutes for ATN, HCTZ and LOS, respectively. Linearity was found to be4-12 μg/ml, 4-12 μg/ml, 1-3 μg/ml for ATN, HCTZ and LOS, respectively. The method was statistically validated for linearity, recovery, the limit ofdetection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), accuracy and precision. The stress testing of the drugs individually and their mixture is carried outunder acidic, alkaline, oxidation, photo-stability and thermal degradation conditions and its degradation products is well-resolved from the analytepeaks.Conclusion: This method was successfully validated for accuracy, precision, and linearity, LOD and LOQ.Keywords: Atenolol, Hydrochlorothiazide, Losartan, Reverse phase high-performance liquid chromatography

Isolation, identification and bioactive potential of bacterial endophytes from Coleus

Coleus (Lamiaceae) is a large and widespread genus comprising of species with diverse ethnobotanical uses. In the present study, bacterial endophytes were isolated from Coleus forskohlii and Coleus aromaticus. Endophytes are the microorganisms which reside within the plants without showing any harmful effect on its host. Diverse types of endophytes live symbiotically within almost all plants and in turn help the plant in a number of ways such as imparting resistance against biotic and abiotic stresses, producing compounds involved in attraction of pollinators, inducing the plant defense mechanisms, etc. The bacterial endophytes isolated in this study, were characterized by microscopic examination (using gram staining) and molecularly identified by sequencing the 16S rRNA. Extracts were prepared from endophytic biomass using solvents of different polarities (methanol, ethyl acetate and butanol) and were screened for their bioactive potential (in vitro cytotoxicity anti-microbial, and anti-oxidant activity). Scale-up of endophytes showing promising results is under process, which will help in isolation of pure compounds

Towards messages that matter: Understanding and addressing HIV and SRH risks among married young people in India

Although there is increasing interest in young people\u27s sexual and reproductive health (SRH) situations and needs in India, married young people have received little attention as a vulnerable group with distinct needs because marriage is assumed to be safe and because married youth are assumed to face none of the stigma that their unmarried counterparts experience in accessing SRH services. However, emerging evidence shows that within this subpopulation, married young women and men constitute groups with distinct risks of HIV and other poor SRH outcomes. There remains a need to better understand their unique vulnerabilities and to design programs that take into account their special circumstances. The Population Council and the Family Planning Association of India undertook a research project intended to better understand the situation and vulnerabilities faced by married young women and men, and to develop communication materials for married young women and men and training materials for providers to address HIV and other SRH risks experienced by these subpopulations. The study was conducted in rural settings in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh, and in Dhar and Guna districts of Madhya Pradesh

Physics Potential of the ICAL detector at the India-based Neutrino Observatory (INO)

The upcoming 50 kt magnetized iron calorimeter (ICAL) detector at the India-based Neutrino Observatory (INO) is designed to study the atmospheric neutrinos and antineutrinos separately over a wide range of energies and path lengths. The primary focus of this experiment is to explore the Earth matter effects by observing the energy and zenith angle dependence of the atmospheric neutrinos in the multi-GeV range. This study will be crucial to address some of the outstanding issues in neutrino oscillation physics, including the fundamental issue of neutrino mass hierarchy. In this document, we present the physics potential of the detector as obtained from realistic detector simulations. We describe the simulation framework, the neutrino interactions in the detector, and the expected response of the detector to particles traversing it. The ICAL detector can determine the energy and direction of the muons to a high precision, and in addition, its sensitivity to multi-GeV hadrons increases its physics reach substantially. Its charge identification capability, and hence its ability to distinguish neutrinos from antineutrinos, makes it an efficient detector for determining the neutrino mass hierarchy. In this report, we outline the analyses carried out for the determination of neutrino mass hierarchy and precision measurements of atmospheric neutrino mixing parameters at ICAL, and give the expected physics reach of the detector with 10 years of runtime. We also explore the potential of ICAL for probing new physics scenarios like CPT violation and the presence of magnetic monopoles.Comment: 139 pages, Physics White Paper of the ICAL (INO) Collaboration, Contents identical with the version published in Pramana - J. Physic

Comparative evaluation of IS6110 PCR via conventional methods in rapid diagnosis of new and previously treated cases of extrapulmonary tuberculosis

ÖZET Yeni ve önceden tedavi edilmiş ekstrapulmoner tüberkülozlu hastaların hızlı tanısında IS6110 ile konvansiyonel yöntemlerin karşılaştırılmalı değerlendirilmesi Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ekstrapulmoner tüberküloz (EPTB) tanısı önemli bir problemdir. EPTB'de, az sayıda basil içerme özelliği, yetersiz miktarda örnek gibi birçok sorun bulunmaktadır. Bütün bu kısıtlamalar, konvansiyonel bakteriyolojik tekniklerin EPTB tanısına düşük katkısına neden olmaktadır. Nükleik asit amplifikasyon yöntemleri, mikobakteriyel DNA'nın saptanması amacıyla geliştirilen hızlı ve duyarlı tekniklerdir. Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex'in spesifik genomunda yer alan "insertion sequence" IS6110'a ait 123bp'nin DNA fragmanı, EPTB'nin hızlı tanısı amacıyla polimeraz zincir reaksiyonu (PCR) ile çoğaltıldı. Bu çalışmada, yeni ve önceden tedavi edilmiş EPTB'li hastaların hızlı tanısında IS6110 PCR ile konvansiyonel yöntemler karşılaştırıldı. EPTB şüpheli hastalardan 450 örnek toplandı ve Mycobacteria için Zeihl Neelson (ZN) boyama ve M. tuberculosis için BACTEC kültürü yapıldı. Bütün örnekler ayrıca, M. tuberculosis complex'in insertion element IS6110'un 123bp fragmanını hedefleyen primerlerle PCR amplifikasyonu ile IS6110 için çalışıldı. Testler arasında duyarlılık bakımından anlamlı fark saptandı. Dört yüz elli örnek . Bununla birlikte, testler arasında spesifisite bakımından anlamlı fark yoktu (p> 0.05). IS6110 PCR'nin hem yeni hem de önceden tedavi edilmiş hastalarda, yayma mikroskopi ve BACTEC kültüründen daha duyarlı olduğunu bulduk. IS6110 PCR, yeni ve önceden tedavi edilmiş EPTB'li hastaların tanısında kullanışlı olabilir. Şüpheli EPTB'li hastaların tedavi kararında fayda sağlayabilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Tüberküloz, ekstrapulmoner tüberküloz, polimeraz zincir reaksiyonu, IS6110. Yazışma Adresi (Address for Correspondence): Dr. Surya KANT, Chhatrapati Shahu Ji Maharaj Medical University UP (Erstwhile King George Medical College), LUCKNOW -INDIA e-mail: [email protected] Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global public health problem. Incidence of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is on increasing worldwide as well as in India (1,2). EPTB compromises 20% of all TB cases in India (3). Diagnosis of EPTB in different clinical presentations has been always as challenge. Smear microscopy and culture lack of sensitivity in EPTB case and culture (solid and liquid media) also takes at least two to four weeks for grow of mycobacteria. A study has reported smear positive is around 10-37% of the patients and mycobacterial culture is positive in variable proportional 12-80% in different biological specimens (3). Studies from many laboratories around the global were using primers most commonly targeting the IS6110 insertion element (4-9). The detection of the IS6110 insertion element present in form of multiple copies to detect of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex but not other mycobacterial species (9-11). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using IS6110 insertion sequences as the target, has potential to conquer limitation of conventional method and to established as rapid, sensitive technique for detecting DNA of M. tuberculosis in different clinical specimens from respiratory and non respiratory sites MATERIALS and METHODS Study Design The study was performed prospectively in a blinded manner. Clinical Specimens and Data Collection 2-5 mL of specimens was collected from 450 specimens, non-repeated specimens from suspected cases of extrapulmonary tuberculosis. The specimens were included as Lymph Node Aspirate and Cold Abscesses, Pleural fluid, C.S.F, Synovial Fluid, Ascetic Fluid, Urine, Gastric Aspirate, Pus, Bone Marrow, Wound and Pus swab and Others specimens (biopsies tissues). All specimens were kept in ice box and transported Mycobacteriology Laboratory, Department of Microbiology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India for smear examination by ZN Staining, BACTEC Culture and PCR test. All patients were signed with due informed consent of the patients from indoor and outward wards of Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Chhatrapati Shahuji Maharaj Medical University, Lucknow, India and Mycobacteriology Laboratory, Department of Microbiology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India during Jan 2009 to Dec 2010. The clinical history regarding, present and past history of antitubercular treatment (ATT); family history of tuberculosis and any other associated disease were taken in prescribed Performa. Microbiological Analysis of Extra Pulmonary Specimens Specimens was divided in to two part one part was kept at -20 for PCR till processing and another part was processed for mycobacterial smear preparation and BACTEC culture. Smears were stained with Ziehl Neelsen (ZN) method and examined for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) (21). BACTEC vials were incubated and interpreted as per Becton Dickinson (BD, Sparks, MD, USA) manual instructions (22). NAP (p-nitro-α-acetylamino-β-hydroxy propiophenone) (Becton Dickinson, Sparks, MD, USA), identification was done to differentiate M. tuberculosis form non tuberculous mycobacteria (22). A decrease or unchanged growth index (GI) in nap vial indicated presence of M. tuberculosis complex (MTBC), while an increase in GI indicated the presence of Mycobacterium other than tuberculosis (MOTT). Standard H 37 Rv strain of M. tuberculosis complex was used as positive control. Extraction of DNA Extraction of DNA was done by the CTAB (cetyl-trimethyl-ammonium bromide) -phenol chloroform extraction method (23). Specimens were centrifuged at 10.000 rpm for 10 min. The supernatant was discarded and the pellet suspended in 567 µL of TE (Tris EDTA, pH 7.4) buffer, 30 µL 10% SDS (sodium dodecyl sulfate) and 3 µL proteinase K (20 mg/mL), mixed and incubated at 37°C for 1 hour. After incubation, 100 µL of 5 M NaCl and 80 µL of high-salt CTAB buffer (containing 4 M NaCl, 1.8% CTAB was added and mixed followed by incubation at 65°C for 10 min. An approximate equal volume (0.7-0.8 µL) of chloroform-isoamyl alcohol (24.1) was added, mixed thoroughly and centrifuged for 4-5 min in a microcentrifuge at 12.000 rpm. The aqueous viscous supernatant was carefully decanted and transferred to a new tube. An equal volume of phenol: chloroform-isoamyl alcohol (1:1) was added followed by a 5 min spin at 12.000 rpm. The supernatant was separated and then mixed with 0.6 volume of isopropanol to get a precipitate. The precipitated nucleic acids were washed with 75% ethanol, dried and re-suspended in 100 µL of TE buffer. Primer and IS6110 PCR The amplification reaction was performed in a final volume of 20 µL. the reaction mixture contained 10 µL Pyrostart Fast PCR Master Mix 2X (dNTP, Taq polymerase with Mgcl 2 , Fermentas, India), 1 µL (10 pmole) of each primer, 3 µL water (nuclease free) and 5 µL of extracted DNA. The oligonucleotide primers used were IS1 and IS2, are: 5'-CCT GCG AGC GTA GGC GTC GG3' and 5' CTC GTC CAG CGC CGC TTC GG 3' respectively (SBS Gentech Co. Ltd) (24). These primers amplified a target fragment at 123 base pairs (bp) from the insertion, M. tuberculosis sequence element IS6110. The PCR amplification was done in thermal cycler (MJ Research, PTC-100, GMI, Inc, USA), which involved 40 cycles of denaturation at 94°C for 2 minute, annealing of primers at 68°C for 2 minute, and primer extension at 72°C for 1 minute. The amplified products were separated on 2% agarose gels, visualized on a UV-light transilluminator (Bangalore Genei, Bangalore, India). The presence of 123bp fragment indicate as positive test as M. tuberculosis complex. The positive controls included the DNA of H37Rv strain. Negative control included PCR grade water Statistical Analysis Data were analyzed using SPSS 15.0 (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, Chicago, IL, USA) for Maurya AK, Kant S, Nag VL, Kushwaha RAS, Kumar M, Dhole TN. 215 Tüberküloz ve Toraks Dergisi 2011; 59(3): 213-220 Windows. The significance of difference was taken as significance value (p< 0.05).Sensitivity was calculated as [Tp/(Tp + Fn)] x 100; specificity was calculated as [Tn/(Tn + Fp)] x 100; Tp = total number of positives; Tn = total number of negatives; Fp = total number of false positive, Fn = total number of false negative; respectively. RESULTS Specimen's Characterization of Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis Cases During the two year study period, 470 clinical specimens were strong clinical suspicion of extrapulmonary tuberculosis were subjected from tertiary care hospitals and all mention test were performed. Out of these, 20 specimens found to be contaminated in BACTEC culture. 450 specimens of results were used in the study. Out of 450 specimens, 153 (34%) lymph node aspirate and cold abscesses, 58 (12.8%) pleural fluid, 44 (9.7%) cerebrum spinal fluid (CSF), 48 (10.7%) urine, 31(6.8%) ascetic fluid, 26 (5.8%) pus, 22 (4.9%) wound and pus swab, 16 (3.5%) gastric aspirate, 10 (2.2%) bone marrow, 10 (2.2%) synovial fluid and 30 (6.7%) others specimens (biopsies tissues). Out of 450 patients, 320 (71.1%) patients were males and 130 (28.9%) females. The mean age of all patients was 39.8 ± 16.1 years. Patients 25-44 years of age accounted for 45% of the total cases. Out of 450 cases, 328 (72.8%) were new cases and 122 (22.2%) were previously treated cases of EPTB. Detection Rate of M. tuberculosis by IS6110 PCR, BACTEC Culture and ZN Smear Microscopy According to New Cases and Previously Treated Cases All specimens were colleted from suspected case of extra pulmonary tuberculosis were found to be AFB positive were 60 (13.4%). On the basis of cases, we found that sensitivity of AFB staining on EPTB were 37 (11.2%) in new cases and 23 (18.8%) in previously treated cases. The sensitivity of AFB staining was higher in comparison to previously treated cases. Overall detection rate of M. tuberculosis by AFB Staining was 60 (13.4%). The detection of M. tuberculosis by BACTEC culture was 202 (45%). Results of BACTEC culture according to cases, 151 (46.03%) were in new cases and 51 (41.8%) were in previously treated cases. We found that sensitivity of BACTEC culture was higher in new cases. All culture isolates obtained were confirmed as mycobacteria with biochemical tests mentioned. Using IS 6110 PCR, 283 (61.8%) were positive for IS6110 PCR for M. tuberculosis. 203 (61.8%) were positive in new cases and 80 (65.5%) were positive in previously treated cases. We found that sensitivity of IS6110 PCR was higher in previously treated cases. Overall comparison of tests, IS6110 PCR was found to have much higComparative evaluation of IS6110 PCR via conventional methods in rapid diagnosis of new and previously treated cases of extrapulmonary tuberculosis 216 Tüberküloz ve Toraks Dergisi 2011; 59(3): 213-220 Comparison of Sensitivity of IS6110 PCR Test Via Others Conventional Tests According to New Cases and Previously Treated Cases IS6110 PCR test was found to be much more sensitive than ZN staining and BACTEC culture results individually as well as in combination are shown in 217 Tüberküloz ve Toraks Dergisi 2011; 59(3): 213-220 DISCUSSION Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health dilemma in India. India is the highest TB burden country accounting for one fifth of the global incidence. Global annual incidence estimate is 9.4 million cases out of which it is estimated that 1.98 million cases are from India (26). In India, EPTB comprises 20% of all TB cases. Its prevalence in the country varies between 8.3-13.1% in different districts according to cohort analysis by Central TB Division, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in 2002 (27,28). The diagnosis of extrapulmonary tuberculosis is till now challenging for diagnostic routine laborites. Numeric reasons are showing that, lack of adequate specimens amounts or volumes; distribute of the specimens for different diagnostic tests (histology/cytology, biochemical analysis, microbiology, and PCR), non-uniform distribution of microorganisms; paucibacillary nature of the specimens; presence of inhibitors that undermine the performance of nucleic acid amplification-based techniques; and the lack of an efficient sample processing technique universally applicable on all types of extrapulmonary samples (29). The poor performance of conventional M. tuberculosis detection techniques, based on microscopic examination of Ziehl-Neelsen stained and culture of M. tuberculosis (LJ Medium and BACTEC Radiometric culture) are still in widespread use for diagnostic purposes, still though they fail to provide the required sensitivity and specificity. The PCR test would be particularly useful in the diagnosis of EPTB where conventional microbiological techniques for M. tuberculosis are showing poor performance of sensitivity. The specificity, sensitivity and speed of PCR test in diagnosis of M. tuberculosis infection shown in this study should encourage the use of this method in routine diagnosis of EPTB. Previously studies shown the success of microscopy is highly variable from 22% to 96% and most authors rate it at round 60% (30-32). Our results shown that sensitivity of smear microscopy was 13.7% and specificity was 100%. The sensitivity of microscopy depends on the clinical presentation and more than 10.000 bacilli per milliliter are necessary for secure microscopic positivity (33). Our studies shown that conventional bacteriological technique were positive in 202 (45%) specimens, where as IS6110 PCR showed that 283 (63%) specimens were positive for M. tuberculosis. The difference was found that to be statistical significant (p< 0.05). Several studies have been reported on PCR to detect M. tuberculosis (34-39). The detection of the IS6110 insertion element present in multiple copies to detect M. tuberculosis complex, but not other mycobacterial species 218 Tüberküloz ve Toraks Dergisi 2011; 59(3): 213-220 tion and PCR results were positive but BACTEC culture was negative; these could be the presence of nonviable mycobacteria in the sample as patients were receiving antitubercular treatment. IS6110 PCR test is higher sensitivity than microscopy and the culture and could help in therapeutic decision for patients with clinical suspicion of EPTB. CONCLUSION IS6110 PCR test for DNA specific M. tuberculosis may be hopes of a rapid and accurate diagnostic test for EPTB and it will help where conventional diagnosis fails and provisional diagnosis of tuberculosis is made on the basis of clinical presentation and histology/cytology examination without evidence of AFB. IS6110 PCR may be great potential to improve the clinician vision for the early diagnosis, treatment and prevention of EPTB. ACKNOWLEDGEMEN

Prevalence of stunting among under-five children in refugee and internally displaced communities: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundA pooled estimate of stunting prevalence in refugee and internally displaced under-five children can help quantify the problem and focus on the nutritional needs of these marginalized groups. We aimed to assess the pooled prevalence of stunting in refugees and internally displaced under-five children from different parts of the globe.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, seven databases (Cochrane, EBSCOHost, EMBASE, ProQuest, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) along with “preprint servers” were searched systematically from the earliest available date to 14 February 2023. Refugee and internally displaced (IDP) under-five children were included, and study quality was assessed using “National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI)” tools.ResultsA total of 776 abstracts (PubMed = 208, Scopus = 192, Cochrane = 1, Web of Science = 27, Embase = 8, EBSCOHost = 123, ProQuest = 5, Google Scholar = 209, and Preprints = 3) were retrieved, duplicates removed, and screened, among which 30 studies were found eligible for qualitative and quantitative synthesis. The pooled prevalence of stunting was 26% [95% confidence interval (CI): 21–31]. Heterogeneity was high (I2 = 99%, p < 0.01). A subgroup analysis of the type of study subjects revealed a pooled stunting prevalence of 37% (95% CI: 23–53) in internally displaced populations and 22% (95% CI: 18–28) among refugee children. Based on geographical distribution, the stunting was 32% (95% CI: 24–40) in the African region, 34% (95% CI: 24–46) in the South-East Asian region, and 14% (95% CI: 11–19) in Eastern Mediterranean region.ConclusionThe stunting rate is more in the internally displaced population than the refugee population and more in the South-East Asian and African regions. Our recommendation is to conduct further research to evaluate the determinants of undernutrition among under-five children of refugees and internally displaced populations from different regions so that international organizations and responsible stakeholders of that region can take effective remedial actions.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=387156, PROSPERO [CRD42023387156]

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions