The effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the health impact of climate change:a systematic review of systematic reviews

Climate change is likely to be one of the most important threats to public health in the coming years. Yet despite the large number of papers considering the health impact of climate change, few have considered what public health interventions may be of most value in reducing the disease burden. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the disease burden of high priority climate sensitive diseases

Correction for Colón-González et al., Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America.

Correction for “Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America,” by Felipe J. Colón-González, Ian Harris, Timothy J. Osborn, Christine Steiner São Bernardo, Carlos A. Peres, Paul R. Hunter, and Iain R. Lake, which was first published May 29, 2018; 10.1073/pnas.1718945115 (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115, 6243–6248). The authors note that Rachel Warren and Detlef van Vuuren should be added to the author list. Rachel Warren should appear as the seventh author, following Paul R. Hunter. Detlef van Vuuren should appear as the eighth author, following Rachel Warren and preceding Iain R. Lake. Rachel Warren should be credited with designing research. Detlef van Vuuren should be credited with contributing data. The corrected author line, affiliation line, and author contributions appear below. The online version has been corrected. The authors also note that the following statement should be added to the Acknowledgments: “R.W. and D.v.V. also received funding from the United Kingdom government, Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, as part of the ‘Implications of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Project.’

Novel sampling method for assessing human-pathogen interactions in the natural environment using boot socks and citizen scientists, with application to Campylobacter seasonality

This paper introduces a novel method for sampling pathogens in natural environments. It uses fabric boot socks worn over walkers' shoes to allow the collection of composite samples over large areas. Wide-area sampling is better suited to studies focusing on human exposure to pathogens (e.g., recreational walking). This sampling method is implemented using a citizen science approach: groups of three walkers wearing boot socks undertook one of six routes, 40 times over 16 months in the North West (NW) and East Anglian (EA) regions of England. To validate this methodology, we report the successful implementation of this citizen science approach, the observation that Campylobacter bacteria were detected on 47% of boot socks, and the observation that multiple boot socks from individual walks produced consistent results. The findings indicate higher Campylobacter levels in the livestock-dominated NW than in EA (55.8% versus 38.6%). Seasonal differences in the presence of Campylobacter bacteria were found between the regions, with indications of winter peaks in both regions but a spring peak in the NW. The presence of Campylobacter bacteria on boot socks was negatively associated with ambient temperature (P = 0.011) and positively associated with precipitation (P < 0.001), results consistent with our understanding of Campylobacter survival and the probability of material adhering to boot socks. Campylobacter jejuni was the predominant species found; Campylobacter coli was largely restricted to the livestock-dominated NW. Source attribution analysis indicated that the potential source of C. jejuni was predominantly sheep in the NW and wild birds in EA but did not differ between peak and nonpeak periods of human incidence

Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia.Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models.Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Seasonality and the effects of weather on Campylobacter infections

This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this recordAvailability of data and materials: The datasets on MEDMI are described at https://www.data-mashup.org.uk/data/data-library/ and include the SGSS infectious disease dataset. Permissions are required to access these datasets and users require an account to be set up as described at https://www.data-mashup.org.uk/data/accessing-data/.BACKGROUND: Campylobacteriosis is a major public health concern. The weather factors that influence spatial and seasonal distributions are not fully understood. METHODS: To investigate the impacts of temperature and rainfall on Campylobacter infections in England and Wales, cases of Campylobacter were linked to local temperature and rainfall at laboratory postcodes in the 30 days before the specimen date. Methods for investigation included a comparative conditional incidence, wavelet, clustering, and time series analyses. RESULTS: The increase of Campylobacter infections in the late spring was significantly linked to temperature two weeks before, with an increase in conditional incidence of 0.175 cases per 100,000 per week for weeks 17 to 24; the relationship to temperature was not linear. Generalized structural time series model revealed that changes in temperature accounted for 33.3% of the expected cases of Campylobacteriosis, with an indication of the direction and relevant temperature range. Wavelet analysis showed a strong annual cycle with additional harmonics at four and six months. Cluster analysis showed three clusters of seasonality with geographic similarities representing metropolitan, rural, and other areas. CONCLUSIONS: The association of Campylobacteriosis with temperature is likely to be indirect. High-resolution spatial temporal linkage of weather parameters and cases is important in improving weather associations with infectious diseases. The primary driver of Campylobacter incidence remains to be determined; other avenues, such as insect contamination of chicken flocks through poor biosecurity should be explored

Climate Change, Foodborne Pathogens, and Illness in Higher Income Countries

Purpose of review: We present a review of the likely consequences of climate change for foodborne pathogens and associated human illness in higher income countries. Recent findings: The relationships between climate and food are complex and hence the impacts of climate change uncertain. This makes it difficult to know which foodborne pathogens will be most affected, what the specific effects will be, and on what timescales changes might occur. Hence, a focus upon current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne pathogens is essential. We highlight a number of developments that may enhance preparedness for climate change. These include: • Adoption of novel surveillance methods, such as syndromic methods, to speed up detection and increase the fidelity of intervention in foodborne outbreaks • Genotype based approaches to surveillance of food pathogens to enhance spatio-temporal resolution in tracing and tracking of illness • Ever increasing integration of plant, animal and human surveillance systems, one-health, to maximize potential for identifying threats • Increased commitment to cross-border (global) information initiatives (including big data) • Improved clarity regarding the governance of complex societal issues such as the conflict between food safety and food waste • Strong user centric (social) communications strategies to engage diverse stakeholder groups Summary: The impact of climate change upon foodborne pathogens and associated illness is uncertain. This emphasises the need to enhance current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne illness. A range of developments are explored in this paper to enhance preparedness

Seasonality in Human Zoonotic Enteric Diseases: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960-2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini  0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries

Gastric and intestinal barrier impairment in tropical enteropathy and HIV: limited impact of micronutrient supplementation during a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although micronutrient supplementation can reduce morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoea, nutritional influences on intestinal host defence are poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that micronutrient supplementation can enhance barrier function of the gut.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We carried out two sub-studies nested within a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial of daily micronutrient supplementation in an urban community in Lusaka, Zambia. In the first sub-study, gastric pH was measured in 203 participants. In the second sub-study, mucosal permeability, lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and anti-LPS antibodies, and serum soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor p55 (sTNFR55) concentrations were measured in 87 participants. Up to three stool samples were also analysed microbiologically for detection of asymptomatic intestinal infection. Gastric histology was subsequently analysed in a third subset (n = 37) to assist in interpretation of the pH data. Informed consent was obtained from all participants after a three-stage information and consent process.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Hypochlorhydria (fasting gastric pH > 4.0) was present in 75 (37%) of participants. In multivariate analysis, HIV infection (OR 4.1; 95%CI 2.2-7.8; <it>P </it>< 0.001) was associated with hypochlorhydria, but taking anti-retroviral treatment (OR 0.16; 0.04-0.67; <it>P </it>= 0.01) and allocation to micronutrient supplementation (OR 0.53; 0.28-0.99; <it>P </it>< 0.05) were protective. Hypochlorhydria was associated with increased risk of salmonellosis. Mild (grade 1) gastric atrophy was found in 5 participants, irrespective of <it>Helicobacter pylori </it>or HIV status. Intestinal permeability, LPS concentrations in serum, anti-LPS IgG, and sTNFR55 concentrations did not differ significantly between micronutrient and placebo groups. Anti-LPS IgM was reduced in the micronutrient recipients (<it>P <</it>0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found evidence of a specific effect of HIV on gastric pH which was readily reversed by anti-retroviral therapy and not mediated by gastric atrophy. Micronutrients had a modest impact on gastric pH and one marker of bacterial translocation.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN31173864</p

Towards better guidance on caseload thresholds to promote positive tuberculosis treatment outcomes:a cohort study

BACKGROUND: In low-incidence countries, clinical experience of tuberculosis is becoming more limited, with potential consequences for patient outcomes. In 2007, the Department of Health released a guidance 'toolkit' recommending that tuberculosis patients in England should not be solely managed by clinicians who see fewer than 10 cases per year. This caseload threshold was established to try to improve treatment outcomes and reduce transmission, but was not evidence based. We aimed to assess the association between clinician or hospital caseload and treatment outcomes, as well as the relative suitability of making recommendations using each caseload parameter. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data for tuberculosis cases in England notified to Public Health England's Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system between 2003 and 2012 were extracted. Mean clinician and hospital caseload over the past 3 years were calculated and treatment outcomes grouped into good/neutral and unfavourable. Caseloads over time and their relationship with outcomes were described and analysed using random effects logistic regression, adjusted for clustering. RESULTS: In a fully adjusted multivariable model (34,707 cases)there was very strong evidence that management of tuberculosis by clinicians with fewer than 10 cases per year was associated with greater odds of an unfavourable outcome compared to clinicians who managed greater numbers of cases (cluster-specific odds ratio, 1.14; 95 % confidence interval, 1.05-1.25; P = 0.002). The relationship between hospital caseload and treatment outcomes was more complex and modified by a patient's place of birth and ethnicity. The clinician caseload association held after adjustment for hospital caseload and when the clinician caseload threshold was reduced down to one. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the relative ease of making recommendations at the hospital level and the greater reliability of recorded hospital versus named clinician, our results suggest that clinician caseload thresholds are more suitable for clinical guidance. The current recommended clinician caseload threshold is functional. Sensitivity analyses reducing the threshold indicated that clinical experience is pertinent even at very low average caseloads, which is encouraging for low burden settings

Speaker- versus listener-oriented disfluency: A re-examination of arguments and assumptions from autism spectrum disorder

We re-evaluate conclusions about disfluency production in high-functioning forms of autism spectrum disorder (HFA). Previous studies examined individuals with HFA to address a theoretical question regarding speaker- and listener-oriented disfluencies. Individuals with HFA tend to be self-centric and have poor pragmatic language skills, and should be less likely to produce listener-oriented disfluency. However, previous studies did not account for individual differences variables that affect disfluency. We show that both matched and unmatched controls produce fewer repairs than individuals with HFA. For silent pauses, there was no difference between matched controls and HFA, but both groups produced more than unmatched controls. These results identify limitations in prior research and shed light on the relationship between autism spectrum disorders and disfluent speech