Predicting mortality among patients with liver cirrhosis in electronic health records with machine learning

OBJECTIVE: Liver cirrhosis is a leading cause of death and effects millions of people in the United States. Early mortality prediction among patients with cirrhosis might give healthcare providers more opportunity to effectively treat the condition. We hypothesized that laboratory test results and other related diagnoses would be associated with mortality in this population. Our another assumption was that a deep learning model could outperform the current Model for End Stage Liver disease (MELD) score in predicting mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We utilized electronic health record data from 34,575 patients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis from a large medical center to study associations with mortality. Three time-windows of mortality (365 days, 180 days and 90 days) and two cases with different number of variables (all 41 available variables and 4 variables in MELD-NA) were studied. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation for continuous variables and mode for categorical variables. Deep learning and machine learning algorithms, i.e., deep neural networks (DNN), random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) were employed to study the associations between baseline features such as laboratory measurements and diagnoses for each time window by 5-fold cross validation method. Metrics such as area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), overall accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate models. RESULTS: Performance of models comprising all variables outperformed those with 4 MELD-NA variables for all prediction cases and the DNN model outperformed the LR and RF models. For example, the DNN model achieved an AUC of 0.88, 0.86, and 0.85 for 90, 180, and 365-day mortality respectively as compared to the MELD score, which resulted in corresponding AUCs of 0.81, 0.79, and 0.76 for the same instances. The DNN and LR models had a significantly better f1 score compared to MELD at all time points examined. CONCLUSION: Other variables such as alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, and hemoglobin were also top informative features besides the 4 MELD-Na variables. Machine learning and deep learning models outperformed the current standard of risk prediction among patients with cirrhosis. Advanced informatics techniques showed promise for risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis

Predictors of donor follow‐up after living donor liver transplantation

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/108074/1/lt23912.pd

a cohort study

Funding: This work was supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health (U19AI135964, P30AG059988), with institutional support from UL1TR001422. The funding agency played no role in the study design, collection of data, analysis, or interpretation of data.The impact of multidrug-resistant (MDR) colonization and MDR infection in critically ill cirrhosis patients remains unclear. We assessed the association of MDR colonization and MDR infection with these patients' survival. Observational cohort study including adult cirrhosis patients admitted to 5 intensive care units at Northwestern Memorial Hospital (Chicago, Illinois, USA) on January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017. Patients admitted for elective liver transplant or with previous liver transplant were excluded. Patients were screened for MDR colonization on intensive care unit admission. Infection diagnoses during the intensive care unit stay were considered. The primary endpoint was hospital transplant-free survival. Among 600 patients included, 362 (60%) were men and median (interquartile range) age was 58.0 (49.0, 64.0) years. Median (interquartile range) Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Chronic Liver Failure-Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure scores on intensive care unit day 1 were 28.0 (20.0, 36.0), 9.0 (6.0, 13.0), and 55.0 (48.0, 64.0), respectively. Overall, 76 (13%) patients were transplanted and 443 (74%) survived the hospital stay. Infections were diagnosed in 347 (58%) patients: pneumonia in 197 (33%), urinary tract infection in 119 (20%), peritonitis in 93 (16%), bloodstream infection in 99 (16%), Clostridium difficile colitis in 9 (2%), and catheter tip infection in 7 (1%). MDR colonization and MDR infection were identified in 200 (33%) and 69 (12%) patients, respectively. MDR colonization was associated with MDR infection (p < 0.001). MDR colonization or MDR infection was associated with higher number and duration of antibiotics (p < 0.001). Following adjustment for covariables (age, sex, etiology, portal hypertension, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score), MDR colonization [OR (95% CI), 0.64 (0.43, 0.95)] or MDR infection [adjusted OR (95% CI), 0.22 (0.12, 0.40)] were independently associated with lower transplant-free survival. Among critically ill cirrhosis patients, MDR colonization or MDR infection portended a worse prognosis.publishersversionpublishe

Clinical Outcomes and Quality of Life in Recipients of Livers Donated after Cardiac Death

Donation after cardiac death (DCD) has expanded in the last decade in the US; however, DCD liver utilization has flattened in recent years due to poor outcomes. We examined clinical and quality of life (QOL) outcomes of DCD recipients by conducting a retrospective and cross-sectional review of patients from 2003 to 2010. We compared clinical outcomes of DCD recipients (n=60) to those of donation after brain death (DBD) liver recipients (n=669) during the same time period. DCD recipients had significantly lower rates of 5-year graft survival (P<0.001) and a trend toward lower rates of 5-year patient survival (P=0.064) when compared to the DBD cohort. In order to examine QOL outcomes in our cohorts, we administered the Short Form Liver Disease Quality of Life questionnaire to 30 DCD and 60 DBD recipients. The DCD recipients reported lower generic and liver-specific QOL. We further stratified the DCD cohort by the presence of ischemic cholangiopathy (IC). Patients with IC reported lower QOL when compared to DBD recipients and those DCD recipients without IC (P<0.05). While the results are consistent with clinical experience, this is the first report of QOL in DCD recipients using standardized measures. These data can be used to guide future comparative effectiveness studies

Increasing prevalence of cirrhosis among insured adults in the United States, 2012–2018

Background Liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease that is known as a “silent killer” and its true prevalence is difficult to describe. It is imperative to accurately characterize the prevalence of cirrhosis because of its increasing healthcare burden. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, trends in cirrhosis prevalence were evaluated using administrative data from one of the largest national health insurance providers in the US. (2011–2018). Enrolled adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis defined by ICD-9 and ICD-10 were included in the study. The primary outcome measured in the study was the prevalence of cirrhosis 2011–2018. Results Among the 371,482 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 62.2 (±13.7) years; 53.3% had commercial insurance and 46.4% had Medicare Advantage. The most frequent cirrhosis etiologies were alcohol-related (26.0%), NASH (20.9%) and HCV (20.0%). Mean time of follow-up was 725 (±732.3) days. The observed cirrhosis prevalence was 0.71% in 2018, a 2-fold increase from 2012 (0.34%). The highest prevalence observed was among patients with Medicare Advantage insurance (1.67%) in 2018. Prevalence increased in each US. state, with Southern states having the most rapid rise (2.3-fold). The most significant increases were observed in patients with NASH (3.9-fold) and alcohol-related (2-fold) cirrhosis. Conclusion Between 2012–2018, the prevalence of liver cirrhosis doubled among insured patients. Alcohol-related and NASH cirrhosis were the most significant contributors to this increase. Patients living in the South, and those insured by Medicare Advantage also have disproportionately higher prevalence of cirrhosis. Public health interventions are important to mitigate this concerning trajectory of strain to the health system

What patients think doctors know: Beliefs about provider knowledge as barriers to safe medication use

We examined patient beliefs about provider awareness of medication use, patient-reported prevalence and nature of provider counseling about medications, and the impact of health literacy on these outcomes

Long-term quality of life after liver donation in the adult to adult living donor liver transplantation cohort study (A2ALL)

There are few long-term studies of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in living liver donors. This study aimed to characterize donor HRQOL in the Adult to Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Study (A2ALL) up to 11 years post-donation

Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort.

Objectives To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Methods We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS &gt;5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. Results Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ≥10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p&lt;0.001) and all-cause death (15.4% vs 7.3%; p=0.003) than non-progressors. These significant associations were also found in subgroup analyses of patients with either low baseline mRSS (≤22/51) or short disease duration (≤15 months). In multivariable analyses, skin progression within 1 year was independently associated with FVC decline ≥10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09). Conclusions Progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice

Racial differences in systemic sclerosis disease presentation: a European Scleroderma Trials and Research group study

Objectives. Racial factors play a significant role in SSc. We evaluated differences in SSc presentations between white patients (WP), Asian patients (AP) and black patients (BP) and analysed the effects of geographical locations.Methods. SSc characteristics of patients from the EUSTAR cohort were cross-sectionally compared across racial groups using survival and multiple logistic regression analyses.Results. The study included 9162 WP, 341 AP and 181 BP. AP developed the first non-RP feature faster than WP but slower than BP. AP were less frequently anti-centromere (ACA; odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, P &lt; 0.001) and more frequently anti-topoisomerase-I autoantibodies (ATA) positive (OR = 1.2, P = 0.068), while BP were less likely to be ACA and ATA positive than were WP [OR(ACA) = 0.3, P &lt; 0.001; OR(ATA) = 0.5, P = 0.020]. AP had less often (OR = 0.7, P = 0.06) and BP more often (OR = 2.7, P &lt; 0.001) diffuse skin involvement than had WP.AP and BP were more likely to have pulmonary hypertension [OR(AP) = 2.6, P &lt; 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.7, P = 0.03 vs WP] and a reduced forced vital capacity [OR(AP) = 2.5, P &lt; 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.4, P &lt; 0.004] than were WP. AP more often had an impaired diffusing capacity of the lung than had BP and WP [OR(AP vs BP) = 1.9, P = 0.038; OR(AP vs WP) = 2.4, P &lt; 0.001]. After RP onset, AP and BP had a higher hazard to die than had WP [hazard ratio (HR) (AP) = 1.6, P = 0.011; HR(BP) = 2.1, P &lt; 0.001].Conclusion. Compared with WP, and mostly independent of geographical location, AP have a faster and earlier disease onset with high prevalences of ATA, pulmonary hypertension and forced vital capacity impairment and higher mortality. BP had the fastest disease onset, a high prevalence of diffuse skin involvement and nominally the highest mortality