Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake

Lake evaporation plays an important role in the water budget of lakes. Predicting lake evaporation responses to climate change is thus of paramount importance for the planning of mitigation and adaption strategies. However, most studies that have simulated climate change impacts on lake evaporation have typically utilised a single mechanistic model. Whilst such studies have merit, projected changes in lake evaporation from any single lake model can be considered uncertain. To better understand evaporation responses to climate change, a multi-model approach (i.e., where a range of projections are considered), is desirable. In this study, we present such multi-model analysis, where five lake models forced by four different climate model projections are used to simulate historic and future change (1901–2099) in lake evaporation. Our investigation, which focuses on sub-tropical Lake Kinneret (Israel), suggested considerable differences in simulated evaporation rates among the models, with the annual average evaporation rates varying between 1232 mm year−1 and 2608 mm year−1 during the historic period (1901–2005). We explored these differences by comparing the models with reference evaporation rates estimated using in-situ data (2000–2005) and a bulk aerodynamic algorithm. We found that the model ensemble generally captured the intra-annual variability in reference evaporation rates, and compared well at seasonal timescales (RMSEc = 0.19, R = 0.92). Using the model ensemble, we then projected future change in evaporation rates under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5. Our projections indicated that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), annual average evaporation rates would increase in Lake Kinneret by 9–22 % under RCPs 2.6–8.5. When compared with projected regional declines in precipitation, our projections suggested that the water balance of Lake Kinneret could experience a deficit of 14–40 % this century. We anticipate this substantial projected deficit combined with a considerable growth in population expected for this region could have considerable negative impacts on water availability and would consequently increase regional water stress

Pawedness trait test (PaTRaT) : a new paradigm to evaluate paw preference and dexterity in rats

Pawedness Trait Test (PaTRaT)-A New Paradigm to Evaluate Paw Preference and Dexterity in RatsIn rodents, dexterity is commonly analyzed in preference paradigms in which animals are given the chance to use either the left or the right front paws to manipulate food. However, paw preference and dexterity at population and individual levels are controversial as results are incongruent across paradigms. We have therefore developed a semi-quantitative method-the pawdeness trait test (PaTRaT)-to evaluate paw preference degree in rats. The PaTRaT consists in a classification system, ranging from +4 to 4 where increasingly positive and negative values reflect the bias for left or right paw use, respectively. Sprague-Dawley male rats were confined into a metal rectangular mesh cylinder, from which they can see, smell and reach sugared rewards with their paws. Due to its size, the reward could only cross the mesh if aligned with its diagonal, imposing additional coordination. Animals were allowed to retrieve 10 rewards per session in a total of four sessions while their behavior was recorded. PaTRaT was repeated 4 and 8 weeks after the first evaluation. To exclude potential bias, rats were also tested for paw fine movement and general locomotion in other behavioral paradigms as well as impulsivity (variable delay-to-signal, VDS), memory and cognitive flexibility (water maze). At the population level 54% of the animals presented a rightward bias. Individually, all animals presented marked side-preferences, >2 and <-2 for left-and right-sided bias, respectively, and this preference was stable across the three evaluations. Inter-rater consistency was very high between two experienced raters and substantial when two additional inexperienced raters were included. Left-and right-biased animals presented no differences in the ability to perform fine movements with any of the forelimbs (staircase) and general locomotor performance. Additionally, these groups performed similarly in executive function and memory tasks. In conclusion, PaTRaT is able to reliably classify rats' pawedness direction and degree.This work has been funded by the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER), through the Competitiveness Factors Operational Programme (COMPETE) and the Northern Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020) under the Portugal 2020 Partnership Agreement (project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000023). It was also funded by National funds, through the Foundation for Science and Technology (Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, FCT), under the scope of the projects POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007038 and PTDC/NEU-SCC/5301/2014. Researchers were supported by FCT grant numbers SFRH/BD/109111/2015 (AMC), SFRH/BD/52291/2013 (ME via Inter-University Doctoral Programme in Ageing and Chronic Disease, PhDOC), PD/BD/114120/2015 (SPN via PhDOC), SFRH/BD/89936/2012 (SB), PD/BD/114117/2015 (MRG via PhDOC) and SFRH/BPD/80118/2011 (HL-A).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change

Millions of lakes inversely stratify during winter. Seemingly subtle variations in the duration of winter stratification can have major ecological effects by, for example, altering the vertical distribution of oxygen and nutrients in lakes. Yet, the influence of climate change on winter stratification has been largely unexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, here we used a lake-climate model ensemble to investigate changes in winter stratification from 1901 to 2099 across 12,242 representative lakes situated throughout the Northern Hemisphere. By the end of the 21st century, winter stratification duration is projected to shorten by an average of 18.5–53.9 d under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Projected changes are faster in warmer geographical regions, in which 35–69% of lakes will no longer inversely stratify by 2070–2099 under RCPs 2.6–8.5. This shortening and loss of winter stratification will likely have numerous implications for lakes, including the misalignment of lifecycle events causing shifts in biodiversity

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely

AEMON-J/DSOS Archive: "Hacking Limnology" Workshop + Virtual Summit in Data Science &amp; Open Science in Aquatic Research

This OSF project is meant to serve as a long-term storage repository for presentations and workshop materials for the Aquatic Ecosystem Modeling-Junior (AEMON-J) and Virtual Summit: Incorporating Data Science and Open Science (DSOS) communities. Contributors in this repository include past presenters and workshop organizers. Contributors are only responsible for those individual presentations that are labeled with their surname