IPAD: Stable Interpretable Forecasting with Knockoffs Inference

Interpretability and stability are two important features that are desired in many contemporary big data applications arising in economics and finance. While the former is enjoyed to some extent by many existing forecasting approaches, the latter in the sense of controlling the fraction of wrongly discovered features which can enhance greatly the interpretability is still largely underdeveloped in the econometric settings. To this end, in this paper we exploit the general framework of model-X knockoffs introduced recently in Cand\`{e}s, Fan, Janson and Lv (2018), which is nonconventional for reproducible large-scale inference in that the framework is completely free of the use of p-values for significance testing, and suggest a new method of intertwined probabilistic factors decoupling (IPAD) for stable interpretable forecasting with knockoffs inference in high-dimensional models. The recipe of the method is constructing the knockoff variables by assuming a latent factor model that is exploited widely in economics and finance for the association structure of covariates. Our method and work are distinct from the existing literature in that we estimate the covariate distribution from data instead of assuming that it is known when constructing the knockoff variables, our procedure does not require any sample splitting, we provide theoretical justifications on the asymptotic false discovery rate control, and the theory for the power analysis is also established. Several simulation examples and the real data analysis further demonstrate that the newly suggested method has appealing finite-sample performance with desired interpretability and stability compared to some popularly used forecasting methods

Comparison of F(ab') versus Fab antivenom for pit viper envenomation: A prospective, blinded, multicenter, randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Crotalidae Polyvalent Immune Fab (Ovine) has been the only antivenom commercially available in the US since 2007 for treatment of Crotalinae envenomation. Late coagulopathy can occur or recur after clearance of Fab antivenom, often after hospital discharge, lasting in some cases more than 2 weeks. There have been serious, even fatal, bleeding complications associated with recurrence phenomena. Frequent follow-up is required, and additional intervention or hospitalization is often necessary. F(ab')2 immunoglobulin derivatives have longer plasma half life than do Fab. We hypothesized that F(ab')2 antivenom would be superior to Fab in the prevention of late coagulopathy following treatment of patients with Crotalinae envenomation. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, double-blind, randomized clinical trial, comparing late coagulopathy in snakebitten patients treated with F(ab')2 with maintenance doses [F(ab')2/F(ab')2], or F(ab')2 with placebo maintenance doses [F(ab')2/placebo], versus Fab with maintenance doses [Fab/Fab]. The primary efficacy endpoint was coagulopathy (platelet count < 150 K/mm(3), fibrinogen level < 150 mg/dL) between end of maintenance dosing and day 8. RESULTS: 121 patients were randomized at 18 clinical sites and received at least one dose of study drug. 114 completed the study. Of these, 11/37 (29.7%) in the Fab/Fab cohort experienced late coagulopathy versus 4/39 (10.3%, p < 0.05) in the F(ab')2/F(ab')2 cohort and 2/38 (5.3%, p < 0.05) in the F(ab')2/placebo cohort. The lowest heterologous protein exposure was with F(ab')2/placebo. No serious adverse events were related to study drug. In each study arm, one patient experienced an acute serum reaction and one experienced serum sickness. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, management of coagulopathic Crotalinae envenomation with longer-half-life F(ab')2 antivenom, with or without maintenance dosing, reduced the risk of subacute coagulopathy and bleeding following treatment of envenomation

3T3 Cell Lines Stably Expressing Pax6 or Pax6(5a) – A New Tool Used for Identification of Common and Isoform Specific Target Genes

Pax6 and Pax6(5a) are two isoforms of the evolutionary conserved Pax6 gene often co-expressed in specific stochiometric relationship in the brain and the eye during development. The Pax6(5a) protein differs from Pax6 by having a 14 amino acid insert in the paired domain, causing the two proteins to have different DNA binding specificities. Difference in functions during development is proven by the fact that mutations in the 14 amino acid insertion for Pax6(5a) give a slightly different eye phenotype than the one described for Pax6. Whereas quite many Pax6 target genes have been published during the last years, few Pax6(5a) specific target genes have been reported on. However, target genes identified by Pax6 knockout studies can probably be Pax6(5a) targets as well, since this isoform also will be affected by the knockout. In order to identify new Pax6 target genes, and to try to distinguish between genes regulated by Pax6 and Pax6(5a), we generated FlpIn-3T3 cell lines stably expressing Pax6 or Pax6(5a). RNA was harvested from these cell lines and used in gene expression microarrays where we identified a number of genes differentially regulated by Pax6 and Pax6(5a). A majority of these were associated with the extracellular region. By qPCR we verified that Ncam1, Ngef, Sphk1, Dkk3 and Crtap are Pax6(5a) specific target genes, while Tgfbi, Vegfa, EphB2, Klk8 and Edn1 were confirmed as Pax6 specific target genes. Nbl1, Ngfb and seven genes encoding different glycosyl transferases appeared to be regulated by both. Direct binding to the promoters of Crtap, Ctgf, Edn1, Dkk3, Pdgfb and Ngef was verified by ChIP. Furthermore, a change in morphology of the stably transfected Pax6 and Pax6(5a) cells was observed, and the Pax6 expressing cells were shown to have increased proliferation and migration capacities

Comparative functional analysis of aquaporins/glyceroporins in mammals and anurans

Maintenance of fluid homeostasis is critical to establishing and maintaining normal physiology. The landmark discovery of membrane water channels (aquaporins; AQPs) ushered in a new area in osmoregulatory biology that has drawn from and contributed to diverse branches of biology, from molecular biology and genomics to systems biology and evolution, and from microbial and plant biology to animal and translational physiology. As a result, the study of AQPs provides a unique and integrated backdrop for exploring the relationships between genes and genome systems, the regulation of gene expression, and the physiologic consequences of genetic variation. The wide species distribution of AQP family members and the evolutionary conservation of the family indicate that the control of membrane water flux is a critical biological process. AQP function and regulation is proving to be central to many of the pathways involved in individual physiologic systems in both mammals and anurans. In mammals, AQPs are essential to normal secretory and absorptive functions of the eye, lung, salivary gland, sweat glands, gastrointestinal tract, and kidney. In urinary, respiratory, and gastrointestinal systems, AQPs are required for proper urine concentration, fluid reabsorption, and glandular secretions. In anurans, AQPs are important in mediating physiologic responses to changes in the external environment, including those that occur during metamorphosis and adaptation from an aquatic to terrestrial environment and thermal acclimation in anticipation of freezing. Therefore, an understanding of AQP function and regulation is an important aspect of an integrated approach to basic biological research