Developing and validating subjective and objective risk-assessment measures for predicting mortality after major surgery: An international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative risk prediction is important for guiding clinical decision-making and resource allocation. Clinicians frequently rely solely on their own clinical judgement for risk prediction rather than objective measures. We aimed to compare the accuracy of freely available objective surgical risk tools with subjective clinical assessment in predicting 30-day mortality. Methods and findings: We conducted a prospective observational study in 274 hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, and New Zealand. For 1 week in 2017, prospective risk, surgical, and outcome data were collected on all adults aged 18 years and over undergoing surgery requiring at least a 1-night stay in hospital. Recruitment bias was avoided through an ethical waiver to patient consent; a mixture of rural, urban, district, and university hospitals participated. We compared subjective assessment with 3 previously published, open-access objective risk tools for predicting 30-day mortality: the Portsmouth-Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality (P-POSSUM), Surgical Risk Scale (SRS), and Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT). We then developed a logistic regression model combining subjective assessment and the best objective tool and compared its performance to each constituent method alone. We included 22,631 patients in the study: 52.8% were female, median age was 62 years (interquartile range [IQR] 46 to 73 years), median postoperative length of stay was 3 days (IQR 1 to 6), and inpatient 30-day mortality was 1.4%. Clinicians used subjective assessment alone in 88.7% of cases. All methods overpredicted risk, but visual inspection of plots showed the SORT to have the best calibration. The SORT demonstrated the best discrimination of the objective tools (SORT Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88–0.92; P-POSSUM = 0.89, 95% CI 0.88–0.91; SRS = 0.85, 95% CI 0.82–0.87). Subjective assessment demonstrated good discrimination (AUROC = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86–0.91) that was not different from the SORT (p = 0.309). Combining subjective assessment and the SORT improved discrimination (bootstrap optimism-corrected AUROC = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.90–0.94) and demonstrated continuous Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.06–0.20, p < 0.001) compared with subjective assessment alone. Decision-curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the superiority of the SORT over other previously published models, and the SORT–clinical judgement model again performed best overall. Our study is limited by the low mortality rate, by the lack of blinding in the ‘subjective’ risk assessments, and because we only compared the performance of clinical risk scores as opposed to other prediction tools such as exercise testing or frailty assessment. Conclusions: In this study, we observed that the combination of subjective assessment with a parsimonious risk model improved perioperative risk estimation. This may be of value in helping clinicians allocate finite resources such as critical care and to support patient involvement in clinical decision-making

Multimorbidity in bipolar disorder and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease: a cross sectional study

Background: Individuals with serious mental disorders experience poor physical health, especially increased rates of cardiometabolic morbidity and premature morbidity. Recent evidence suggests that individuals with schizophrenia have numerous comorbid physical conditions which may be under-recorded and under-treated but to date very few studies have explored this issue for bipolar disorder. Methods:We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 1,751,841 registered patients within 314 primary-care practices in Scotland, U.K. Bipolar disorder was identified using Read Codes recorded within electronic medical records. Data on 32 common chronic physical conditions were also assessed. Potential prescribing inequalities were evaluated by analyzing prescribing data for coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension. Results: Compared to controls, individuals with bipolar disorder were significantly less likely to have no recorded physical conditions (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.54-0.63) and significantly more likely to have one physical condition (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16-1.39), two physical conditions (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) and three or more physical conditions (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30-1.64). People with bipolar disorder also had higher rates of thyroid disorders, chronic kidney disease, chronic pain, chronic obstructive airways disease and diabetes but, surprisingly, lower recorded rates of hypertension and atrial fibrillation. People with bipolar disorder and comorbid CHD or hypertension were significantly more likely to be prescribed no antihypertensive or cholesterol-lowering medications compared to controls, and bipolar individuals with CHD or hypertension were significantly less likely to be on 2 or more antihypertensive agents. Conclusions: Individuals with bipolar disorder are similar to individuals with schizophrenia in having a wide range of comorbid and multiple physical health conditions. They are also less likely than controls to have a primary-care record of cardiovascular conditions such as hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Those with a recorded diagnosis of CHD or hypertension were less likely to be treated with cardiovascular medications and were treated less intensively. This study highlights the high physical healthcare needs of people with bipolar disorder, and provides evidence for a systematic under-recognition and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease in this group

Testing the thrifty gene hypothesis: the Gly482Ser variant in PPARGC1A is associated with BMI in Tongans

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The thrifty gene hypothesis posits that, in populations that experienced periods of feast and famine, natural selection favoured individuals carrying thrifty alleles that promote the storage of fat and energy. Polynesians likely experienced long periods of cold stress and starvation during their settlement of the Pacific and today have high rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), possibly due to past positive selection for thrifty alleles. Alternatively, T2DM risk alleles may simply have drifted to high frequency in Polynesians. To identify thrifty alleles in Polynesians, we previously examined evidence of positive selection on T2DM-associated SNPs and identified a T2DM risk allele at unusually high frequency in Polynesians. We suggested that the risk allele of the Gly482Ser variant in the <it>PPARGC1A </it>gene was driven to high frequency in Polynesians by positive selection and therefore possibly represented a thrifty allele in the Pacific.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Here we examine whether <it>PPARGC1A </it>is a thrifty gene in Pacific populations by testing for an association between Gly482Ser genotypes and BMI in two Pacific populations (Maori and Tongans) and by evaluating the frequency of the risk allele of the Gly482Ser variant in a sample of worldwide populations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that the Gly482Ser variant is associated with BMI in Tongans but not in Maori. In a sample of 58 populations worldwide, we also show that the 482Ser risk allele reaches its highest frequency in the Pacific.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The association between Gly482Ser genotypes and BMI in Tongans together with the worldwide frequency distribution of the Gly482Ser risk allele suggests that <it>PPARGC1A </it>remains a candidate thrifty gene in Pacific populations.</p

Extreme Evolutionary Disparities Seen in Positive Selection across Seven Complex Diseases

Positive selection is known to occur when the environment that an organism inhabits is suddenly altered, as is the case across recent human history. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have successfully illuminated disease-associated variation. However, whether human evolution is heading towards or away from disease susceptibility in general remains an open question. The genetic-basis of common complex disease may partially be caused by positive selection events, which simultaneously increased fitness and susceptibility to disease. We analyze seven diseases studied by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium to compare evidence for selection at every locus associated with disease. We take a large set of the most strongly associated SNPs in each GWA study in order to capture more hidden associations at the cost of introducing false positives into our analysis. We then search for signs of positive selection in this inclusive set of SNPs. There are striking differences between the seven studied diseases. We find alleles increasing susceptibility to Type 1 Diabetes (T1D), Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), and Crohn's Disease (CD) underwent recent positive selection. There is more selection in alleles increasing, rather than decreasing, susceptibility to T1D. In the 80 SNPs most associated with T1D (p-value <7.01×10−5) showing strong signs of positive selection, 58 alleles associated with disease susceptibility show signs of positive selection, while only 22 associated with disease protection show signs of positive selection. Alleles increasing susceptibility to RA are under selection as well. In contrast, selection in SNPs associated with CD favors protective alleles. These results inform the current understanding of disease etiology, shed light on potential benefits associated with the genetic-basis of disease, and aid in the efforts to identify causal genetic factors underlying complex disease

Single nucleotide polymorphism discovery in elite north american potato germplasm

BACKGROUND: Current breeding approaches in potato rely almost entirely on phenotypic evaluations; molecular markers, with the exception of a few linked to disease resistance traits, are not widely used. Large-scale sequence datasets generated primarily through Sanger Expressed Sequence Tag projects are available from a limited number of potato cultivars and access to next generation sequencing technologies permits rapid generation of sequence data for additional cultivars. When coupled with the advent of high throughput genotyping methods, an opportunity now exists for potato breeders to incorporate considerably more genotypic data into their decision-making. RESULTS: To identify a large number of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in elite potato germplasm, we sequenced normalized cDNA prepared from three commercial potato cultivars: 'Atlantic', 'Premier Russet' and 'Snowden'. For each cultivar, we generated 2 Gb of sequence which was assembled into a representative transcriptome of (~)28-29 Mb for each cultivar. Using the Maq SNP filter that filters read depth, density, and quality, 575,340 SNPs were identified within these three cultivars. In parallel, 2,358 SNPs were identified within existing Sanger sequences for three additional cultivars, 'Bintje', 'Kennebec', and 'Shepody'. Using a stringent set of filters in conjunction with the potato reference genome, we identified 69,011 high confidence SNPs from these six cultivars for use in genotyping with the Infinium platform. Ninety-six of these SNPs were used with a BeadXpress assay to assess allelic diversity in a germplasm panel of 248 lines; 82 of the SNPs proved sufficiently informative for subsequent analyses. Within diverse North American germplasm, the chip processing market class was most distinct, clearly separated from all other market classes. The round white and russet market classes both include fresh market and processing cultivars. Nevertheless, the russet and round white market classes are more distant from each other than processing are from fresh market types within these two groups. CONCLUSIONS: The genotype data generated in this study, albeit limited in number, has revealed distinct relationships among the market classes of potato. The SNPs identified in this study will enable high-throughput genotyping of germplasm and populations, which in turn will enable more efficient marker-assisted breeding efforts in potato

A Genome Scan for Positive Selection in Thoroughbred Horses

Thoroughbred horses have been selected for exceptional racing performance resulting in system-wide structural and functional adaptations contributing to elite athletic phenotypes. Because selection has been recent and intense in a closed population that stems from a small number of founder animals Thoroughbreds represent a unique population within which to identify genomic contributions to exercise-related traits. Employing a population genetics-based hitchhiking mapping approach we performed a genome scan using 394 autosomal and X chromosome microsatellite loci and identified positively selected loci in the extreme tail-ends of the empirical distributions for (1) deviations from expected heterozygosity (Ewens-Watterson test) in Thoroughbred (n = 112) and (2) global differentiation among four geographically diverse horse populations (FST). We found positively selected genomic regions in Thoroughbred enriched for phosphoinositide-mediated signalling (3.2-fold enrichment; P<0.01), insulin receptor signalling (5.0-fold enrichment; P<0.01) and lipid transport (2.2-fold enrichment; P<0.05) genes. We found a significant overrepresentation of sarcoglycan complex (11.1-fold enrichment; P<0.05) and focal adhesion pathway (1.9-fold enrichment; P<0.01) genes highlighting the role for muscle strength and integrity in the Thoroughbred athletic phenotype. We report for the first time candidate athletic-performance genes within regions targeted by selection in Thoroughbred horses that are principally responsible for fatty acid oxidation, increased insulin sensitivity and muscle strength: ACSS1 (acyl-CoA synthetase short-chain family member 1), ACTA1 (actin, alpha 1, skeletal muscle), ACTN2 (actinin, alpha 2), ADHFE1 (alcohol dehydrogenase, iron containing, 1), MTFR1 (mitochondrial fission regulator 1), PDK4 (pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase, isozyme 4) and TNC (tenascin C). Understanding the genetic basis for exercise adaptation will be crucial for the identification of genes within the complex molecular networks underlying obesity and its consequential pathologies, such as type 2 diabetes. Therefore, we propose Thoroughbred as a novel in vivo large animal model for understanding molecular protection against metabolic disease

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Measuring the Survey Transfer Function with Balrog

We describe an updated calibration and diagnostic framework, Balrog, used to directly sample the selection and photometric biases of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data set. We systematically inject onto the single-epoch images of a random 20% subset of the DES footprint an ensemble of nearly 30 million realistic galaxy models derived from DES Deep Field observations. These augmented images are analyzed in parallel with the original data to automatically inherit measurement systematics that are often too difficult to capture with generative models. The resulting object catalog is a Monte Carlo sampling of the DES transfer function and is used as a powerful diagnostic and calibration tool for a variety of DES Y3 science, particularly for the calibration of the photometric redshifts of distant "source" galaxies and magnification biases of nearer "lens" galaxies. The recovered Balrog injections are shown to closely match the photometric property distributions of the Y3 GOLD catalog, particularly in color, and capture the number density fluctuations from observing conditions of the real data within 1% for a typical galaxy sample. We find that Y3 colors are extremely well calibrated, typically within ∼1–8 mmag, but for a small subset of objects, we detect significant magnitude biases correlated with large overestimates of the injected object size due to proximity effects and blending. We discuss approaches to extend the current methodology to capture more aspects of the transfer function and reach full coverage of the survey footprint for future analyses