Asian Crises: Theory, Evidence, Warning-Signals

In July 1997, the economies of East Asia became embroiled in one of the worst financial crises of the postwar period. Yet, prior to the crisis, these economies were seen as models of economic growth experiencing sustained growth rates that exceeded those earlier thought unattainable. Why did the market not anticipate the crises? To this end, we review the Asian financial crisis from two related perspectives - whether the crisis was precipitated by a failure of the real exchange rate to be aligned with its fundamental determinants and/or whether the crisis was precipitated by a divergence of the foreign debt from its optimal path. The first perspective is based on a coherent theory of the equilibrium real exchange rate - the NATREX model - that shows how “misalignments” lead to currency crises. The second perspective is based on a model of optimal foreign debt ratio - derived from stochastic optimal control - which shows why “divergences” lead to debt crises. The important point here is that these models suggest important variables which may serve as warning signals to predict crises.Asian crises, optimal debt, equilibrium exchange rates, NATREX, stochastic optimal control, warning signals of crises, exchange rate misalignment

Curcumin activates the p38MPAK-HSP25 pathway in vitro but fails to attenuate diabetic nephropathy in DBA2J mice despite urinary clearance documented by HPLC

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Curcumin has anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidant, and anti-proliferative properties, and depending upon the experimental circumstances, may be pro- or anti-apoptotic. Many of these biological actions could ameliorate diabetic nephropathy.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Mouse podocytes, cultured in basal or high glucose conditions, underwent acute exposure to curcumin. Western blots for p38-MAPK, COX-2 and cleaved caspase-3; isoelectric focusing for HSP25 phosphorylation; and DNase I assays for F- to G- actin cleavage were performed for <it>in vitro </it>analyses. <it>In vivo </it>studies examined the effects of dietary curcumin on the development of diabetic nephropathy in streptozotocin (Stz)-induced diabetes in DBA2J mice. Urinary albumin to creatinine ratios were obtained, high performance liquid chromatography was performed for urinary curcuminoid measurements, and Western blots for p38-MAPK and total HSP25 were performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Curcumin enhanced the phosphorylation of both p38MAPK and downstream HSP25; inhibited COX-2; induced a trend towards attenuation of F- to G-actin cleavage; and dramatically inhibited the activation of caspase-3 in <it>vitro</it>. In curcumin-treated DBA2J mice with Stz-diabetes, HPLC measurements confirmed the presence of urinary curcuminoid. Nevertheless, dietary provision of curcumin either before or after the induction of diabetes failed to attenuate albuminuria.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Apart from species, strain, early differences in glycemic control, and/or dosing effects, the failure to modulate albuminuria may have been due to a decrement in renal HSP25 or stimulation of the 12/15 lipoxygenase pathway in DBA2J mice fed curcumin. In addition, these studies suggest that timed urine collections may be useful for monitoring curcumin dosing and renal pharmacodynamic effects.</p

A community-sourced glossary of open scholarship terms

Supplementary Information: This list of terms represents the ‘Open Scholarship Glossary 1.0’ (available at: https://forrt.org/glossary/. Glossary available under a CC BY NC SA 4.0 license at: https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41562-021-01269-4/MediaObjects/41562_2021_1269_MOESM1_ESM.pdf).https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41562-021-01269-4/MediaObjects/41562_2021_1269_MOESM1_ESM.pd

Modelling the Interaction of Fundamental and Portfolio Exchange Rate Behaviour: An Application to Australia and the ASEAN3

This paper explores the interaction of fundamental and portfolio factors in the determination of the exchange rate. The weights on the factors evolve endogenously as a function of relative fundamental and portfolio errors. The model also generates exchange rate mixture distributions that may be skewed, leptokurtic or bimodal and as such can explain small and large changes endogenously. The model is applied to the exchange rates of Australia and the ASEAN3 to examine the role of fundamental and portfolio behaviour, especially over the 1997/98 currency crisis period. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia 2002.