Developing a spatial-statistical model and map of historical malaria prevalence in Botswana using a staged variable selection procedure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several malaria risk maps have been developed in recent years, many from the prevalence of infection data collated by the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) project, and using various environmental data sets as predictors. Variable selection is a major obstacle due to analytical problems caused by over-fitting, confounding and non-independence in the data. Testing and comparing every combination of explanatory variables in a Bayesian spatial framework remains unfeasible for most researchers. The aim of this study was to develop a malaria risk map using a systematic and practicable variable selection process for spatial analysis and mapping of historical malaria risk in Botswana.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 50 potential explanatory variables from eight environmental data themes, 42 were significantly associated with malaria prevalence in univariate logistic regression and were ranked by the Akaike Information Criterion. Those correlated with higher-ranking relatives of the same environmental theme, were temporarily excluded. The remaining 14 candidates were ranked by selection frequency after running automated step-wise selection procedures on 1000 bootstrap samples drawn from the data. A non-spatial multiple-variable model was developed through step-wise inclusion in order of selection frequency. Previously excluded variables were then re-evaluated for inclusion, using further step-wise bootstrap procedures, resulting in the exclusion of another variable. Finally a Bayesian geo-statistical model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was fitted to the data, resulting in a final model of three predictor variables, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. Each was independently and significantly associated with malaria prevalence after allowing for spatial correlation. This model was used to predict malaria prevalence at unobserved locations, producing a smooth risk map for the whole country.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have produced a highly plausible and parsimonious model of historical malaria risk for Botswana from point-referenced data from a 1961/2 prevalence survey of malaria infection in 1–14 year old children. After starting with a list of 50 potential variables we ended with three highly plausible predictors, by applying a systematic and repeatable staged variable selection procedure that included a spatial analysis, which has application for other environmentally determined infectious diseases. All this was accomplished using general-purpose statistical software.</p

Macrosystems ecology: Understanding ecological patterns and processes at continental scales

Macrosystems ecology is the study of diverse ecological phenomena at the scale of regions to continents and their interactions with phenomena at other scales. This emerging subdiscipline addresses ecological questions and environmental problems at these broad scales. Here, we describe this new field, show how it relates to modern ecological study, and highlight opportunities that stem from taking a macrosystems perspective. We present a hierarchical framework for investigating macrosystems at any level of ecological organization and in relation to broader and finer scales. Building on well-established theory and concepts from other subdisciplines of ecology, we identify feedbacks, linkages among distant regions, and interactions that cross scales of space and time as the most likely sources of unexpected and novel behaviors in macrosystems. We present three examples that highlight the importance of this multiscaled systems perspective for understanding the ecology of regions to continents

Bio-psychosocial determinants of cardiovascular disease in a rural population on Crete, Greece: formulating a hypothesis and designing the SPILI-III study

Background: In 1988, the SPILI project was established in order to evaluate the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile of the inhabitants of Spili, in rural Crete, Greece. The first reports from this project revealed that against the unfavourable risk factors’ profile observed, only a few men with a previous myocardial infarction were encountered. A follow-up study (SPILI II) was performed twelve years after the initial examination, and the unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile was re-confirmed. Presentation of the Hypothesis: This paper presents a hypothesis formulated on the basis of previous research to investigate if dynamic psycho-social determinants, including social coherence of the local community, religiosity and spirituality, are protective against the development of coronary heart disease in a well-defined population. Testing the Hypothesis: A follow-up examination of this Cretan cohort is currently being performed to assess the link between psychosocial factors and CVD. Psychosocial factors including sense of control, religiosity and spirituality are assessed in together with conventional CVD risk factors. Smoking and alcohol consumption, as well as dietary habits and activity levels are recorded. Oxidative stress and inflammatory markers, as well as ultrasound measurement of carotid intima media thickness, a preclinical marker of atherosclerosis, will also be measured. Implications of the hypothesis tested: The issue of the cardio-protective effect of psycho-social factors would be revisited based on the results of this Cretan cohort; nevertheless, further research is needed across different subpopulations in order to establish a definite relationship. A comprehensive approach based on the aspects of biosocial life may result in more accurate CVD risk management

Quantum phase transition in a single-molecule quantum dot

Quantum criticality is the intriguing possibility offered by the laws of quantum mechanics when the wave function of a many-particle physical system is forced to evolve continuously between two distinct, competing ground states. This phenomenon, often related to a zero-temperature magnetic phase transition, can be observed in several strongly correlated materials such as heavy fermion compounds or possibly high-temperature superconductors, and is believed to govern many of their fascinating, yet still unexplained properties. In contrast to these bulk materials with very complex electronic structure, artificial nanoscale devices could offer a new and simpler vista to the comprehension of quantum phase transitions. This long-sought possibility is demonstrated by our work in a fullerene molecular junction, where gate voltage induces a crossing of singlet and triplet spin states at zero magnetic field. Electronic tunneling from metallic contacts into the $\rm{C_{60}}$ quantum dot provides here the necessary many-body correlations to observe a true quantum critical behavior.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Individual, social, environmental, and physical environmental correlates with physical activity among Canadians: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The identification of various individual, social and physical environmental factors affecting physical activity (PA) behavior in Canada can help in the development of more tailored intervention strategies for promoting higher PA levels in Canada. This study examined the influences of various individual, social and physical environmental factors on PA participation by gender, age and socioeconomic status, using data from the 2002 nationwide survey of the Physical Activity Monitor.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2002, 5,167 Canadians aged 15–79 years, selected by random-digit dialling from household-based telephone exchanges, completed a telephone survey. The short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to collect information on total physical activity. The effects of socio-economical status, self-rated health, self-efficacy, intention, perceived barriers to PA, health benefits of PA, social support, and facility availability on PA level were examined by multiple logistic regression analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Self-efficacy and intention were the strongest correlates and had the greatest effect on PA. Family income, self-rated health and perceived barriers were also consistently associated with PA. The effects of the perceived health benefits, education and family income were more salient to older people, whereas the influence of education was more important to women and the influence of perceived barriers was more salient to women and younger people. Facility availability was more strongly associated with PA among people with a university degree than among people with a lower education level. However, social support was not significantly related to PA in any subgroup.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that PA promotion strategies should be tailored to enhance people's confidence to engage in PA, motivate people to be more active, educate people on PA's health benefits and reduce barriers, as well as target different factors for men and women and for differing socio-economic and demographic groups.</p

COgnitive behavioural therapy vs standardised medical care for adults with Dissociative non-Epileptic Seizures (CODES): a multicentre randomised controlled trial protocol

Background The evidence base for the effectiveness of psychological interventions for patients with dissociative non-epileptic seizures (DS) is currently extremely limited, although data from two small pilot randomised controlled trials (RCTs), including from our group, suggest that Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) may be effective in reducing DS occurrence and may improve aspects of psychological status and psychosocial functioning. Methods/Design The study is a multicentre, pragmatic parallel group RCT to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of specifically-tailored CBT plus standardised medical care (SMC) vs SMC alone in reducing DS frequency and improving psychological and health-related outcomes. In the initial screening phase, patients with DS will receive their diagnosis from a neurologist/epilepsy specialist. If patients are eligible and interested following the provision of study information and a booklet about DS, they will consent to provide demographic information and fortnightly data about their seizures, and agree to see a psychiatrist three months later. We aim to recruit ~500 patients to this screening stage. After a review three months later by a psychiatrist, those patients who have continued to have DS in the previous eight weeks and who meet further eligibility criteria will be told about the trial comparing CBT + SMC vs SMC alone. If they are interested in participating, they will be given a further booklet on DS and study information. A research worker will see them to obtain their informed consent to take part in the RCT. We aim to randomise 298 people (149 to each arm). In addition to a baseline assessment, data will be collected at 6 and 12 months post randomisation. Our primary outcome is monthly seizure frequency in the preceding month. Secondary outcomes include seizure severity, measures of seizure freedom and reduction, psychological distress and psychosocial functioning, quality of life, health service use, cost effectiveness and adverse events. We will include a nested qualitative study to evaluate participants’ views of the intervention and factors that acted as facilitators and barriers to participation. Discussion This study will be the first adequately powered evaluation of CBT for this patient group and offers the potential to provide an evidence base for treating this patient group. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN05681227 ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0232554

Time quasi-periodic gravity water waves in finite depth

We prove the existence and the linear stability of Cantor families of small amplitude time quasi-periodic standing water wave solutions\u2014namely periodic and even in the space variable x\u2014of a bi-dimensional ocean with finite depth under the action of pure gravity. Such a result holds for all the values of the depth parameter in a Borel set of asymptotically full measure. This is a small divisor problem. The main difficulties are the fully nonlinear nature of the gravity water waves equations\u2014the highest order x-derivative appears in the nonlinear term but not in the linearization at the origin\u2014and the fact that the linear frequencies grow just in a sublinear way at infinity. We overcome these problems by first reducing the linearized operators, obtained at each approximate quasi-periodic solution along a Nash\u2013Moser iterative scheme, to constant coefficients up to smoothing operators, using pseudo-differential changes of variables that are quasi-periodic in time. Then we apply a KAM reducibility scheme which requires very weak Melnikov non-resonance conditions which lose derivatives both in time and space. Despite the fact that the depth parameter moves the linear frequencies by just exponentially small quantities, we are able to verify such non-resonance conditions for most values of the depth, extending degenerate KAM theory

Vaccines against toxoplasma gondii : challenges and opportunities

Development of vaccines against Toxoplasma gondii infection in humans is of high priority, given the high burden of disease in some areas of the world like South America, and the lack of effective drugs with few adverse effects. Rodent models have been used in research on vaccines against T. gondii over the past decades. However, regardless of the vaccine construct, the vaccines have not been able to induce protective immunity when the organism is challenged with T. gondii, either directly or via a vector. Only a few live, attenuated T. gondii strains used for immunization have been able to confer protective immunity, which is measured by a lack of tissue cysts after challenge. Furthermore, challenge with low virulence strains, especially strains with genotype II, will probably be insufficient to provide protection against the more virulent T. gondii strains, such as those with genotypes I or II, or those genotypes from South America not belonging to genotype I, II or III. Future studies should use animal models besides rodents, and challenges should be performed with at least one genotype II T. gondii and one of the more virulent genotypes. Endpoints like maternal-foetal transmission and prevention of eye disease are important in addition to the traditional endpoint of survival or reduction in numbers of brain cysts after challenge

Influence of LAR and VAR on Para-Aminopyridine Antimalarials Targetting Haematin in Chloroquine-Resistance

Antimalarial chloroquine (CQ) prevents haematin detoxication when CQ-base concentrates in the acidic digestive vacuole through protonation of its p-aminopyridine (pAP) basic aro- matic nitrogen and sidechain diethyl-N. CQ export through the variant vacuolar membrane export channel, PFCRT, causes CQ-resistance in Plasmodium falciparum but 3-methyl CQ (sontochin SC), des-ethyl amodiaquine (DAQ) and bis 4-aminoquinoline piperaquine (PQ) are still active. This is determined by changes in drug accumulation ratios in parasite lipid (LAR) and in vacuolar water (VAR). Higher LAR may facilitate drug binding to and blocking PFCRT and also aid haematin in lipid to bind drug. LAR for CQ is only 8.3; VAR is 143,482. More hydrophobic SC has LAR 143; VAR remains 68,523. Similarly DAQ with a phenol sub- stituent has LAR of 40.8, with VAR 89,366. In PQ, basicity of each pAP is reduced by distal piperazine N, allowing very high LAR of 973,492, retaining VAR of 104,378. In another bis quinoline, dichlorquinazine (DCQ), also active but clinically unsatisfactory, each pAP retains basicity, being insulated by a 2-carbon chain from a proximal nitrogen of the single linking piperazine. While LAR of 15,488 is still high, the lowest estimate of VAR approaches 4.9 million. DCQ may be expected to be very highly lysosomotropic and therefore potentially hepatotoxic. In 11 pAP antimalarials a quadratic relationship between logLAR and logRe- sistance Index (RI) was confirmed, while log (LAR/VAR) vs logRI for 12 was linear. Both might be used to predict the utility of structural modifications