Leibniz, Acosmism, and Incompossibility

Leibniz claims that God acts in the best possible way, and that this includes creating exactly one world. But worlds are aggregates, and aggregates have a low degree of reality or metaphysical perfection, perhaps none at all. This is Leibniz’s tendency toward acosmism, or the view that there this no such thing as creation-as-a-whole. Many interpreters reconcile Leibniz’s acosmist tendency with the high value of worlds by proposing that God sums the value of each substance created, so that the best world is just the world with the most substances. I call this way of determining the value of a world the Additive Theory of Value (ATV), and argue that it leads to the current and insoluble form of the problem of incompossibility. To avoid the problem, I read “possible worlds” in “God chooses the best of all possible worlds” as referring to God’s ideas of worlds. These ideas, though built up from essences, are themselves unities and so well suited to be the value bearers that Leibniz’s theodicy requires. They have their own value, thanks to their unity, and that unity is not preserved when more essences are added

ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

Precision medicine for suicidality: from universality to subtypes and personalization

Suicide remains a clear, present and increasing public health problem, despite being a potentially preventable tragedy. Its incidence is particularly high in people with overt or un(der)diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Objective and precise identification of individuals at risk, ways of monitoring response to treatments and novel preventive therapeutics need to be discovered, employed and widely deployed. We sought to investigate whether blood gene expression biomarkers for suicide (that is, a ‘liquid biopsy’ approach) can be identified that are more universal in nature, working across psychiatric diagnoses and genders, using larger cohorts than in previous studies. Such markers may reflect and/or be a proxy for the core biology of suicide. We were successful in this endeavor, using a comprehensive stepwise approach, leading to a wealth of findings. Steps 1, 2 and 3 were discovery, prioritization and validation for tracking suicidality, resulting in a Top Dozen list of candidate biomarkers comprising the top biomarkers from each step, as well as a larger list of 148 candidate biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction in the validation step. Step 4 was testing the Top Dozen list and Bonferroni biomarker list for predictive ability for suicidal ideation (SI) and for future hospitalizations for suicidality in independent cohorts, leading to the identification of completely novel predictive biomarkers (such as CLN5 and AK2), as well as reinforcement of ours and others previous findings in the field (such as SLC4A4 and SKA2). Additionally, we examined whether subtypes of suicidality can be identified based on mental state at the time of high SI and identified four potential subtypes: high anxiety, low mood, combined and non-affective (psychotic). Such subtypes may delineate groups of individuals that are more homogenous in terms of suicidality biology and behavior. We also studied a more personalized approach, by psychiatric diagnosis and gender, with a focus on bipolar males, the highest risk group. Such a personalized approach may be more sensitive to gender differences and to the impact of psychiatric co-morbidities and medications. We compared testing the universal biomarkers in everybody versus testing by subtypes versus personalized by gender and diagnosis, and show that the subtype and personalized approaches permit enhanced precision of predictions for different universal biomarkers. In particular, LHFP appears to be a strong predictor for suicidality in males with depression. We also directly examined whether biomarkers discovered using male bipolars only are better predictors in a male bipolar independent cohort than universal biomarkers and show evidence for a possible advantage of personalization. We identified completely novel biomarkers (such as SPTBN1 and C7orf73), and reinforced previously known biomarkers (such as PTEN and SAT1). For diagnostic ability testing purposes, we also examined as predictors phenotypic measures as apps (for suicide risk (CFI-S, Convergent Functional Information for Suicidality) and for anxiety and mood (SASS, Simplified Affective State Scale)) by themselves, as well as in combination with the top biomarkers (the combination being our a priori primary endpoint), to provide context and enhance precision of predictions. We obtained area under the curves of 90% for SI and 77% for future hospitalizations in independent cohorts. Step 5 was to look for mechanistic understanding, starting with examining evidence for the Top Dozen and Bonferroni biomarkers for involvement in other psychiatric and non-psychiatric disorders, as a mechanism for biological predisposition and vulnerability. The biomarkers we identified also provide a window towards understanding the biology of suicide, implicating biological pathways related to neurogenesis, programmed cell death and insulin signaling from the universal biomarkers, as well as mTOR signaling from the male bipolar biomarkers. In particular, HTR2A increase coupled with ARRB1 and GSK3B decreases in expression in suicidality may provide a synergistic mechanistical corrective target, as do SLC4A4 increase coupled with AHCYL1 and AHCYL2 decrease. Step 6 was to move beyond diagnostics and mechanistical risk assessment, towards providing a foundation for personalized therapeutics. Items scored positive in the CFI-S and subtypes identified by SASS in different individuals provide targets for personalized (psycho)therapy. Some individual biomarkers are targets of existing drugs used to treat mood disorders and suicidality (lithium, clozapine and omega-3 fatty acids), providing a means toward pharmacogenomics stratification of patients and monitoring of response to treatment. Such biomarkers merit evaluation in clinical trials. Bioinformatics drug repurposing analyses with the gene expression biosignatures of the Top Dozen and Bonferroni-validated universal biomarkers identified novel potential therapeutics for suicidality, such as ebselen (a lithium mimetic), piracetam (a nootropic), chlorogenic acid (a polyphenol) and metformin (an antidiabetic and possible longevity promoting drug). Finally, based on the totality of our data and of the evidence in the field to date, a convergent functional evidence score prioritizing biomarkers that have all around evidence (track suicidality, predict it, are reflective of biological predisposition and are potential drug targets) brought to the fore APOE and IL6 from among the universal biomarkers, suggesting an inflammatory/accelerated aging component that may be a targetable common denominator

Association of APOE polymorphism with chronic kidney disease in a nationally representative sample: a Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) Genetic Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Apolipoprotein E polymorphisms (<it>APOE</it>) have been associated with lowered glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) with e2 allele conferring risk and e4 providing protection. However, few data are available in non-European ethnic groups or in a population-based cohort.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The authors analyzed 5,583 individuals from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) to determine association with estimated GFR by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation and low-GFR cases. Low-GFR cases were defined as GFR <75 ml/min/1.73 m²; additionally, GFR was analyzed continuously.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In univariate analysis, the e4 allele was negatively associated with low-GFR cases in non-Hispanic whites, odds ratio (OR): 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60, 0.97. In whites, there was a significant association between increasing <it>APOE </it>score (indicating greater number of e2 alleles) and higher prevalence of low-GFR cases (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.45). Analysis of continuous GFR in whites found the e4 allele was associated with higher levels of continuous GFR (β-coefficient: 2.57 ml/min/1.73 m², 95%CI: 0.005, 5.14); in non-Hispanic blacks the e2 allele was associated with lower levels of continuous GFR (β-coefficient: -3.73 ml/min/1.73 m², 95%CI: -6.61, -0.84). <it>APOE </it>e2 and e4 alleles were rare and not associated with low-GFR cases or continuous GFR in Mexican Americans.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In conclusion, the authors observed a weak association between the <it>APOE </it>e4 allele and low-GFR cases and continuous GFR in non-Hispanic whites, and the <it>APOE </it>e2 allele and continuous GFR in non-Hispanic blacks, but found no association with either measure of kidney function in Mexican Americans. Larger studies including multiethnic groups are needed to determine the significance of this association.</p

Heart rate variability and target organ damage in hypertensive patients

Background: We evaluated the association between linear standard Heart Rate Variability (HRV) measures and vascular, renal and cardiac target organ damage (TOD). Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed including 200 patients registered in the Regione Campania network (aged 62.4 ± 12, male 64%). HRV analysis was performed by 24-h holter ECG. Renal damage was assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), vascular damage by carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), and cardiac damage by left ventricular mass index. Results: Significantly lower values of the ratio of low to high frequency power (LF/HF) were found in the patients with moderate or severe eGFR (p-value < 0.001). Similarly, depressed values of indexes of the overall autonomic modulation on heart were found in patients with plaque compared to those with a normal IMT (p-value <0.05). These associations remained significant after adjustment for other factors known to contribute to the development of target organ damage, such as age. Moreover, depressed LF/HF was found also in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy but this association was not significant after adjustment for other factors. Conclusions: Depressed HRV appeared to be associated with vascular and renal TOD, suggesting the involvement of autonomic imbalance in the TOD. However, as the mechanisms by which abnormal autonomic balance may lead to TOD, and, particularly, to renal organ damage are not clearly known, further prospective studies with longitudinal design are needed to determine the association between HRV and the development of TOD

Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 and 2 predict outcomes in advanced chronic kidney disease : a prospective cohort study

Background : Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 (sTNFR1) and 2 (sTNFR2) have been associated to progression of renal failure, end stage renal disease and mortality in early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD), mostly in the context of diabetic nephropathy. The predictive value of these markers in advanced stages of CKD irrespective of the specific causes of kidney disease has not yet been defined. In this study, the relationship between sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 and the risk for adverse cardiovascular events (CVE) and all-cause mortality was investigated in a population with CKD stage 4-5, not yet on dialysis, to minimize the confounding by renal function. Patients and methods : In 131 patients, CKD stage 4-5, sTNFR1, sTNFR2 were analysed for their association to a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or first non-fatal CVE by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. In the multivariate models, age, gender, CRP, eGFR and significant comorbidities were included as covariates. Results : During a median follow-up of 33 months, 40 events (30.5%) occurred of which 29 deaths (22.1%) and 11 (8.4%) first non-fatal CVE. In univariate analysis, the hazard ratios (HR) of sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 for negative outcome were 1.49 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28-1.75) and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.06-1.20) respectively. After adjustment for clinical covariables (age, CRP, diabetes and a history of cardiovascular disease) both sTNFRs remained independently associated to outcomes (HR: sTNFR1: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.30-1.77; sTNFR2: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.20). A subanalysis of the non-diabetic patients in the study population confirmed these findings, especially for sTNFR1. Conclusion : sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are independently associated to all-cause mortality or an increased risk for cardiovascular events in advanced CKD irrespective of the cause of kidney disease

Urine Injury Biomarkers and Risk of Adverse Outcomes in Recipients of Prevalent Kidney Transplants: The Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation Trial

Recipients of kidney transplants (KTR) are at increased risk for cardiovascular events, graft failure, and death. It is unknown whether urine kidney injury biomarkers are associated with poor outcomes among KTRs. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) Trial using a case-cohort study design, selecting participants with adjudicated cardiovascular events, graft failure, or death. Urine neutrophil gelatinase–associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), IL-18, and liver–type fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP) were measured in spot urine samples and standardized to urine creatinine concentration. We adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, eGFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. Patients had 291 cardiovascular events, 257 graft failure events, and 359 deaths. Each log increase in urine NGAL/creatinine independently associated with a 24% greater risk of cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.24; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.06 to 1.45), a 40% greater risk of graft failure (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.68), and a 44% greater risk of death (aHR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.65). Urine KIM-1/creatinine and IL-18/creatinine independently associated with greater risk of death (aHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.61 and aHR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.49 per log increase, respectively) but not with risk of cardiovascular events or graft failure. Urine L-FABP did not associate with any study outcomes. In conclusion, among prevalent KTRs, higher urine NGAL, KIM-1, and IL-18 levels independently and differentially associated with greater risk of adverse outcomes

Abnormal function of the vasopressin-cyclic-AMP-aquaporin2 axis during urine concentrating and diluting in patients with reduced renal function. A case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The kidneys ability to concentrate and dilute urine is deteriorated during progressive renal insufficiency. We wanted to test the hypothesis that these phenomena could be attributed to an abnormal function of the principal cells in the distal part of the nephron.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Healthy control subjects and patients with chronic kidney diseases were studied. Group 1 comprised healthy subjects, n = 10. Groups 2-4 comprised patients with chronic kidney disease (Group 2, n = 14, e-GFR ? 90 m1/min; Group 3, n = 11, 60 m1/min ? e-GFR < 90 ml/min; and Group 4, n = 16, 15 ml/min ? e-GFR < 60 ml/min). The subjects collected urine during 24 hours. A urine concentrating test was done by thirsting during the following 12 hours. Thereafter, a urine diluting test was performed with a water load of 20 ml/kg body weight. The effect variables were urinary excretions of aquaporin2 (u-AQP2), cyclic-AMP (u-c-AMP), urine volume (UV), free water clearance (C_H2O), urine osmolarity (u-Osm), and plasma arginine vasopressin (p-AVP).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After fluid deprivation, u-Osm increased. In all groups, UV and C_H2Odecreased and u-AQP2 and u-c-AMP increased in Groups 1 and 2, but were unchanged in Group 3 and 4. P-AVP was significantly higher in Group 4 than in the other groups. During urine diluting, UV and C_H2Oreached significantly higher levels in Groups 1-3 than Group 4. Both before and after water loading, u-AQP2 and p-AVP were significantly higher and u-c-AMP was significantly lower in Group 4 than the other groups. Estimated-GFR was correlated negatively to p-AVP and positively to u-c-AMP.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Patients with moderately severe chronic kidney disease have a reduced renal concentrating and diluting capacity compared to both patients with milder chronic kidney disease and healthy control subjects. These phenomena can be attributed, at least partly, to an abnormally decreased response in the AVP-c-AMP-AQP2 axis.</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.Gov Identifier: NCT00313430</p