Are large randomised controlled trials in severe sepsis and septic shock statistically disadvantaged by repeated inadvertent underestimates of required sample size?

OBJECTIVES: We sought to understand why randomised controlled trials in septic shock have failed to demonstrate effectiveness in the face of improving overall outcomes for patients and seemingly promising results of early phase trials of interventions. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective analysis of large critical care trials of severe sepsis and septic shock. Data were collected from the primary trial manuscripts, prepublished statistical plans or by direct communication with corresponding authors. SETTING: Critical care randomised control trials in severe sepsis and septic shock. PARTICIPANTS: 14 619 patients randomised in 13 trials published between 2005 and 2015, enrolling greater than 500 patients and powered to a primary outcome of mortality. INTERVENTION: Multiple interventions including the evaluation of treatment strategies and novel therapeutics. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Our primary outcome measure was the difference between the anticipated and actual control arm mortality. Secondary analysis examined the actual effect size and the anticipated effect size employed in sample size calculation. RESULTS: In this post hoc analysis of 13 trials with 14 619 patients randomised, we highlight a global tendency to overestimate control arm mortality in estimating sample size (absolute difference 9.8%, 95% CI -14.7% to -5.0%, p<0.001). When we compared anticipated and actual effect size of a treatment, there was also a substantial overestimation in proposed values (absolute difference 7.4%, 95% CI -9.0% to -5.8%, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: An interpretation of our results is that trials are consistently underpowered in the planning phase by employing erroneous variables to calculate a satisfactory sample size. Our analysis cannot establish if, given a larger sample size, a trial would have had a positive result. It is disappointing so many promising phase II results have not translated into durable phase III outcomes. It is possible that our current framework has biased us towards discounting potentially life-saving treatments

Rotation of electromagnetic fields and the nature of optical angular momentum

The association of spin and orbital angular momenta of light with its polarization and helical phase fronts is now well established. The problems in linking this with electromagnetic theory, as expressed in Maxwell's equations, are rather less well known. We present a simple analysis of the problems involved in defining spin and orbital angular momenta for electromagnetic fields and discuss some of the remaining challenges. Crucial to our investigation is the duplex symmetry between the electric and magnetic fields

Random qubit-states and how best to measure them

We consider the problem of measuring a single qubit, known to have been prepared in either a randomly selected pure state or a randomly selected real pure state. We seek the measurements that provide either the best estimate of the state prepared or maximise the accessible information. Surprisingly, any sensible measurement turns out to be optimal. We discuss the application of these ideas to multiple qubits and higher-dimensional systems

Effects of a Tailored Follow-Up Intervention on Health Behaviors, Beliefs, and Attitudes

Background: The high rates of relapse that tend to occur after short-term behavioral interventions indicate the need for maintenance programs that promote long-term adherence to new behavior patterns. Computer-tailored health messages that are mailed to participants or given in brief telephone calls offer an innovative and time-efficient alternative to ongoing face-to-face contact with healthcare providers. Methods: Following a 1-year behavior change program, 22 North Carolina health departments were randomly assigned to a follow-up intervention or control condition. Data were collected from 1999 to 2001 by telephone-administered surveys at preintervention and postintervention for 511 low-income, midlife adult women enrolled in the Well-Integrated Screening and Evaluation for Women Across the Nation (WISEWOMAN) program at local North Carolina health departments. During the year after the behavior change program, intervention participants were mailed six sets of computer-tailored health messages and received two computer-tailored telephone counseling sessions. Main outcomes of dietary and physical activity behaviors, beliefs, and attitudes were measured. Results: Intervention participants were more likely to move forward into more advanced stages of physical activity change (p = 0.02); control participants were more likely to increase their level of dietary social support at follow-up (p = 0.05). Both groups maintained low levels of reported saturated fat and cholesterol intake at follow-up. No changes were seen in physical activity in either group. Conclusions: Mailed computer-tailored health messages and telephone counseling calls favorably modified forward physical activity stage movement but did not appreciably affect any other psychosocial or behavioral outcomes

Leadership and Stewardship of the Laboratory (Objective 4.1) Notable Outcome - Phase II Alternative Analysis and PNNL Site Plan Recommendation

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Pacific Northwest Site Office (PNSO) have recently completed an effort to identify the current state of the campus and gaps that exist with regards to space needs, facilities and infrastructure. This effort has been used to establish a campus strategy to ensure PNNL is ready to further the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) mission. Ten-year business projections and the impacts on space needs were assessed and incorporated into the long-term facility plans. In identifying/quantifying the space needs for PNNL, the following categories were addressed: Multi-purpose Programmatic (wet chemistry and imaging laboratory space), Strategic (Systems Engineering and Computation Analytics, and Collaboration space), Remediation (space to offset the loss of the Research Technology Laboratory [RTL] Complex due to decontamination and demolition), and Optimization (the exit of older and less cost-effective facilities). The findings of the space assessment indicate a need for wet chemistry space, imaging space, and strategic space needs associated with systems engineering and collaboration space. Based on the analysis, a 10-year campus strategy evolved that balanced four strategic objectives, as directed by the DOE Office of Science (DOE-SC): • Mission Alignment - maintain customer satisfaction • Reasonable & Achievable - do what makes sense from a practical and cost perspective • Campus Continuity - increase the federal control of assets and follow the Campus Master Plan • Guiding Principles - modern, collaborative, flexible, and sustainable. This strategy considered the following possible approaches to meet the identified space needs: • Institutional General Plant Project (IGPP) funded projects • Third party leased facilities • Science Laboratory Infrastructure (SLI) line item funded projects. Pairing the four strategic objectives with additional key metrics as criteria for selection, an initial recommendation was made to DOE-SC to use all three funding mechanisms to deliver the mission need. DOE-SC provided feedback that third party facilities are not to be pursued at this time. The decision was made by DOE that an IGPP-funded program would be the base plan, while retaining the possibility of a 2019 SLI-funded project. The SLI project will be designed to deliver significant impact on science and technology (S&T) and support the development of a modern, synergistic core campus where a collaborative and innovative environment is fostered. The specific scientific impact will be further defined in the 2015 and 2016 Annual Laboratory Plans. Additionally, opportunities will be explored to construct annexes on current federal facilities, including the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), if proven synergistic and cost effective. The final result of this effort is an actionable, flexible plan with scope, schedule, and cost targets for individual acquisition projects. Implemented as planned, the result will increase federal ownership by approximately 15 percent, reduce the operating cost by approximately 7 percent, and reduce the geographic facility footprint by approximately 66,000 gross square feet (GSF). Reduction of surplus space will be addressed while maintaining customer satisfaction, lowering operating costs, reducing the campus footprint, and increasing the federal control of assets. This strategy is documented in PNNL’s 2014 Laboratory Plan

Protein kinase activity of phosphoinositide 3-kinase regulates cytokine-dependent cell survival

Extent: 14 p.The dual specificity protein/lipid kinase, phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K), promotes growth factor-mediated cell survival and is frequently deregulated in cancer. However, in contrast to canonical lipid-kinase functions, the role of PI3K protein kinase activity in regulating cell survival is unknown. We have employed a novel approach to purify and pharmacologically profile protein kinases from primary human acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cells that phosphorylate serine residues in the cytoplasmic portion of cytokine receptors to promote hemopoietic cell survival. We have isolated a kinase activity that is able to directly phosphorylate Ser585 in the cytoplasmic domain of the interleukin 3 (IL-3) and granulocyte macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) receptors and shown it to be PI3K. Physiological concentrations of cytokine in the picomolar range were sufficient for activating the protein kinase activity of PI3K leading to Ser585 phosphorylation and hemopoietic cell survival but did not activate PI3K lipid kinase signaling or promote proliferation. Blockade of PI3K lipid signaling by expression of the pleckstrin homology of Akt1 had no significant impact on the ability of picomolar concentrations of cytokine to promote hemopoietic cell survival. Furthermore, inducible expression of a mutant form of PI3K that is defective in lipid kinase activity but retains protein kinase activity was able to promote Ser585 phosphorylation and hemopoietic cell survival in the absence of cytokine. Blockade of p110α by RNA interference or multiple independent PI3K inhibitors not only blocked Ser585 phosphorylation in cytokine-dependent cells and primary human AML blasts, but also resulted in a block in survival signaling and cell death. Our findings demonstrate a new role for the protein kinase activity of PI3K in phosphorylating the cytoplasmic tail of the GM-CSF and IL-3 receptors to selectively regulate cell survival highlighting the importance of targeting such pathways in cancer.Daniel Thomas, Jason A. Powell, Benjamin D. Green, Emma F. Barry, Yuefang Ma, Joanna Woodcock, Stephen Fitter, Andrew C.W. Zannettino, Stuart M. Pitson, Timothy P. Hughes, Angel F. Lopez, Peter R. Shepherd, Andrew H. Wei, Paul G. Ekert and Mark A. Guthridg

Aquatic community response to volcanic eruptions on the Ecuadorian Andean flank: evidence from the palaeoecological record

Aquatic ecosystems in the tropical Andes are under increasing pressure from human modification of the landscape (deforestation and dams) and climatic change (increase of extreme events and 1.5 °C on average temperatures are projected for AD 2100). However, the resilience of these ecosystems to perturbations is poorly understood. Here we use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to assess the response of aquatic ecosystems to a major mechanism for natural disturbance, volcanic ash deposition. Specifically, we present data from two Neotropical lakes located on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador. Laguna Pindo (1°27.132′S–78°04.847′W) is a tectonically formed closed basin surrounded by a dense mid-elevation forest, whereas Laguna Baños (0°19.328′S–78°09.175′W) is a glacially formed lake with an inflow and outflow in high Andean Páramo grasslands. In each lake we examined the dynamics of chironomids and other aquatic and semi-aquatic organisms to explore the effect of thick (> 5 cm) volcanic deposits on the aquatic communities in these two systems with different catchment features. In both lakes past volcanic ash deposition was evident from four large tephras dated to c.850 cal year BP (Pindo), and 4600, 3600 and 1500 cal year BP (Baños). Examination of the chironomid and aquatic assemblages before and after the ash depositions revealed no shift in composition at Pindo, but a major change at Baños occurred after the last event around 1500 cal year BP. Chironomids at Baños changed from an assemblage dominated by Pseudochironomus and Polypedilum nubifer-type to Cricotopus/Paratrichocladius type-II, and such a dominance lasted for approximately 380 years. We suggest that, despite potential changes in the water chemistry, the major effect on the chironomid community resulted from the thickness of the tephra being deposited, which acted to shallow the water body beyond a depth threshold. Changes in the aquatic flora and fauna at the base of the trophic chain can promote cascade effects that may deteriorate the ecosystem, especially when already influenced by human activities, such as deforestation and dams, which is frequent in the high Andes

Childhood loneliness as a predictor of adolescent depressive symptoms: an 8-year longitudinal study

Childhood loneliness is characterised by children’s perceived dissatisfaction with aspects of their social relationships. This 8-year prospective study investigates whether loneliness in childhood predicts depressive symptoms in adolescence, controlling for early childhood indicators of emotional problems and a sociometric measure of peer social preference. 296 children were tested in the infant years of primary school (T1 5 years of age), in the upper primary school (T2 9 years of age) and in secondary school (T3 13 years of age). At T1, children completed the loneliness assessment and sociometric interview. Their teachers completed externalisation and internalisation rating scales for each child. At T2, children completed a loneliness assessment, a measure of depressive symptoms, and the sociometric interview. At T3, children completed the depressive symptom assessment. An SEM analysis showed that depressive symptoms in early adolescence (age 13) were predicted by reports of depressive symptoms at age 8, which were themselves predicted by internalisation in the infant school (5 years). The interactive effect of loneliness at 5 and 9, indicative of prolonged loneliness in childhood, also predicted depressive symptoms at age 13. Parent and peer-related loneliness at age 5 and 9, peer acceptance variables, and duration of parent loneliness did not predict depression. Our results suggest that enduring peer-related loneliness during childhood constitutes an interpersonal stressor that predisposes children to adolescent depressive symptoms. Possible mediators are discussed

Measuring patient-reported outcomes: moving beyond misplaced common sense to hard science

Interest in the patient's views of his or her illness and treatment has increased dramatically. However, our ability to appropriately measure such issues lags far behind the level of interest and need. Too often such measurement is considered to be a simple and trivial activity that merely requires the application of common sense. However, good quality measurement of patient-reported outcomes is a complex activity requiring considerable expertise and experience. This review considers the most important issues related to such measurement in the context of chronic disease and details how instruments should be developed, validated and adapted for use in additional languages. While there is often consensus on how best to undertake these activities, there is generally little evidence to support such accord. The present article questions these orthodox views and suggests alternative approaches that have been shown to be effective

Translation and validation of non-English versions of the Ankylosing Spondylitis Quality of Life (ASQOL) questionnaire

BACKGROUND: The Ankylosing Spondylitis Quality of Life (ASQOL) questionnaire is a unidimensional, disease-specific measure developed in the UK and the Netherlands. This study describes its adaptation into other languages. METHODS: The UK English ASQOL was translated into US English; Canadian French and English; French; German; Italian; Spanish; and Swedish (dual-panel methods). Cognitive debriefing interviews were conducted with AS patients. Psychometric/scaling properties were assessed using data from two Phase III studies of adalimumab. Baseline and Week-2 data were used to assess test-retest reliability. Validity was determined by correlation of ASQOL with SF-36 and BASFI and by discriminative ability of ASQOL based on disease severity. Item response theory (Rasch model) was used to test ASQOL's scaling properties. RESULTS: Cognitive debriefing showed the new ASQOL versions to be clear, relevant and comprehensive. Sample sizes varied, but were sufficient for: psychometric/scaling assessment for US English and Canadian English; psychometric but not scaling analyses for German; and preliminary evidence of these properties for the remaining languages. Test-retest reliability and Cronbach's alpha coefficients were high: US English (0.85, 0.85), Canadian English (0.87, 0.86), and German (0.77, 0.79). Correlations of ASQOL with SF-36 and BASFI for US English, Canadian English, and German measures were moderate, but ASQOL discriminated between patients based on perceived disease severities (p < 0.01). Results were comparable for the other languages. US English and Canadian English exhibited fit to the Rasch model (non-significant p-values: 0.54, 0.68), confirming unidimensionality. CONCLUSION: The ASQOL was successfully translated into all eight languages. Psychometric properties were excellent for US English, Canadian English, and German, and extremely promising for the other languages