Weighted entropy and optimal portfolios for risk-averse Kelly investments

Following a series of works on capital growth investment, we analyse log-optimal portfolios where the return evaluation includes `weights' of different outcomes. The results are twofold: (A) under certain conditions, the logarithmic growth rate leads to a supermartingale, and (B) the optimal (martingale) investment strategy is a proportional betting. We focus on properties of the optimal portfolios and discuss a number of simple examples extending the well-known Kelly betting scheme. An important restriction is that the investment does not exceed the current capital value and allows the trader to cover the worst possible losses. The paper deals with a class of discrete-time models. A continuous-time extension is a topic of an ongoing study

Analysis of Kelly-optimal portfolios

We investigate the use of Kelly's strategy in the construction of an optimal portfolio of assets. For lognormally distributed asset returns, we derive approximate analytical results for the optimal investment fractions in various settings. We show that when mean returns and volatilities of the assets are small and there is no risk-free asset, the Kelly-optimal portfolio lies on Markowitz Efficient Frontier. Since in the investigated case the Kelly approach forbids short positions and borrowing, often only a small fraction of the available assets is included in the Kelly-optimal portfolio. This phenomenon, that we call condensation, is studied analytically in various model scenarios.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures; extended list of references and some minor modification

Design and feasibility testing of a novel group intervention for young women who binge drink in groups

BackgroundYoung women frequently drink alcohol in groups and binge drinking within these natural drinking groups is common. This study describes the design of a theoretically and empirically based group intervention to reduce binge drinking among young women. It also evaluates their engagement with the intervention and the acceptability of the study methods.MethodsFriendship groups of women aged 18–35 years, who had two or more episodes of binge drinking (>6 UK units on one occasion; 48g of alcohol) in the previous 30 days, were recruited from the community. A face-to-face group intervention, based on the Health Action Process Approach, was delivered over three sessions. Components of the intervention were woven around fun activities, such as making alcohol free cocktails. Women were followed up four months after the intervention was delivered. Results The target of 24 groups (comprising 97 women) was recruited. The common pattern of drinking was infrequent, heavy drinking (mean consumption on the heaviest drinking day was UK 18.1 units). Process evaluation revealed that the intervention was delivered with high fidelity and acceptability of the study methods was high. The women engaged positively with intervention components and made group decisions about cutting down. Twenty two groups set goals to reduce their drinking, and these were translated into action plans. Retention of individuals at follow up was 87%.ConclusionsThis study successfully recruited groups of young women whose patterns of drinking place them at high risk of acute harm. This novel approach to delivering an alcohol intervention has potential to reduce binge drinking among young women. The high levels of engagement with key steps in the behavior change process suggests that the group intervention should be tested in a full randomised controlled trial

Minería de datos para el descubrimiento de patrones en enfermedades respiratorias en Bogotá, Colombia

Trabajo de InvestigaciónEl presente proyecto se basa en la aplicación de minería de datos mediante el algoritmo de clustering K- means que permita la generación de un modelo descriptivo con el análisis de los datos y con el objetivo de identificar posibles comportamientos en enfermedades respiratorias en la ciudad de Bogotá. El conjunto de clústeres generados por la herramienta RapidMiner es la recopilación de datos de un periodo de cinco años de 2012 a 2016, en donde se contemplan el número de casos asociados a 184 diagnósticos de enfermedades respiratorias y la edad de los pacientes corresponde de 0 a 5 años.Trabajo de Investigación1. GENERALIDADES 2. OBJETIVOS 3. JUSTIFICACIÓN 4. DELIMITACIÓN 5. MARCO REFERENCIAL 6. METODOLOGÍA 7. FUENTES DE EXTRACCIÓN Y SUS VARIABLES 8. DISEÑO 9. SELECCIÓN DE ALGORITMOS DE CLUSTERING 10. RECONOCER PATRONES A PARTIR DE LA INFORMACIÓN RECOPILADA 11. CONCLUSIONES 12. TRABAJOS FUTUROS 13. REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS 14. ANEXOSPregradoIngeniero de Sistema

A synthesis of past, current and future research for protection and management of papyrus (Cyperus papyrus L.) wetlands in Africa

Papyrus wetlands (dominated by the giant sedge Cyperus papyrus L.) occur throughout eastern, central and southern Africa and are important for biodiversity, for water quality and quantity regulation and for the livelihoods of millions of people. To draw attention to the importance of papyrus wetlands, a special session entitled ‘‘The ecology of livelihoods in papyrus wetlands’’ was organized at the 9th INTECOL Wetlands Conference in Orlando, Florida in June 2012. Papers from the session, combined with additional contributions, were collected in a special issue of Wetlands Ecology and Management. The current paper reviews ecological and hydrological characteristics of papyrus wetlands, summarizes their ecosystem services and sustainable use, provides an overview of papyrus research to date, and looks at policy development for papyrus wetlands. Based on this review, the paper provides a synthesis of research and policy priorities for papyrus wetlands and introduces the contributions in the special issue. Main conclusions are that (1) there is a need for better estimates of the area covered by papyrus wetlands. Limited evidence suggests that the loss of papyrus wetlands is rapid in some areas; (2) there is a need for a better understanding and modelling of the regulating services of papyrus wetlands to support trade-off analysis and improve economic valuation; (3) research on papyrus wetlands should include assessment of all ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, habitat, cultural) so that trade-offs can be determined as the basis for sustainable management strategies (‘wise use’); (4) more research on the governance, institutional and socio-economic aspects of papyrus wetlands is needed to assist African governments in dealing with the challenges of conserving wetlands in the face of growing food security needs and climate change. The papers in the special issue address a number of these issues

Running away experience and psychoactive substance use among adolescents in Taiwan: multi-city street outreach survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study aimed to examine: 1) the relationship between being a runaway and the time since the first absconding event and adolescent substance use; 2) whether different kinds of psychoactive substances have a different temporal relationship to the first absconding event; and 3) whether the various reasons for the first absconding event are associated with different risks of substance use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were drawn from the 2004-2006 nationwide outreach programs across 26 cities/towns in Taiwan. A total of 17,133 participants, age 12-18 years, who completed an anonymous questionnaire on their experience of running away and substances use and who were now living with their families, were included in the analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The lifetime risk of tobacco, alcohol, betel nut, and illegal drug/inhalant use increased steadily from adolescents who had experienced a trial runaway episode (one time lasting ≤ 1 day), to those with extended runaway experience (≥ 2 times or lasting > 1 day), when compared to those who had never ran away. Adolescents who had their first running away experience > 6 months previously had a greater risk of betel nut or illegal drug/inhalant use over the past 6-months than those with a similar experience within the last 6 months. Both alcohol and tobacco use were most frequently initiated before the first running away, whereas both betel nut and illegal drug/inhalant use were most frequently initiated after this event. When adolescents who were fleeing an unsatisfactory home life were compared to those who ran away for excitement, the risk of alcohol use was similar but the former tended to have a higher risk of tobacco, betel nut, and illegal drug/inhalant use.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>More significant running away and a longer time since the first absconding experience were associated with more advanced substance involvement among adolescents now living in a family setting. Once adolescents had left home, they developed additional psychoactive substance problems, regardless of their reasons for running away. These findings have implications for caregivers, teachers, and healthcare workers when trying to prevent and/or intervening in adolescent substance use.</p

Nutrition and lung cancer: a case control study in Iran

Background: Despite many prospective and retrospective studies about the association of dietary habit and lung cancer, the topic still remains controversial. So, this study aims to investigate the association of lung cancer with dietary factors. Method: In this study 242 lung cancer patients and their 484 matched controls on age, sex, and place of residence were enrolled between October 2002 to 2005. Trained physicians interviewed all participants with standardized questionnaires. The middle and upper third consumer groups were compared to the lower third according to the distribution in controls unless the linear trend was significant across exposure groups. Result: Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate the association with lung cancer. In a multivariate analysis fruit (Ptrend < 0.0001), vegetable (P = 0.001) and sunflower oil (P = 0.006) remained as protective factors and rice (P = 0.008), bread (Ptrend = 0.04), liver (P = 0.004), butter (Ptrend = 0.04), white cheese (Ptrend < 0.0001), beef (Ptrend = 0.005), vegetable ghee (P < 0.0001) and, animal ghee (P = 0.015) remained as risk factors of lung cancer. Generally, we found positive trend between consumption of beef (P = 0.002), bread (P < 0.0001), and dairy products (P < 0.0001) with lung cancer. In contrast, only fruits were inversely related to lung cancer (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: It seems that vegetables, fruits, and sunflower oil could be protective factors and bread, rice, beef, liver, dairy products, vegetable ghee, and animal ghee found to be possible risk factors for the development of lung cancer in Iran