400 predictions: the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2015

Each Arctic summer since 2008, the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has invited researchers and the engaged public to contribute predictions regarding the September extent of Arctic sea ice. The public character of SIO, focused on a number whose true value soon becomes known, brings elements of constructive gamification and transparency to the science process. We analyze the performance of more than 400 predictions from SIO’s first eight years, testing for differences in ensemble skill across years, months and five types of method: heuristic, statistical, mixed, and ice-ocean or ice-ocean-atmosphere modeling. Results highlight a pattern of easy and difficult years, corresponding roughly to the distinction between climate and weather. Difficult years, in which most predictions are far from the observed extent, tend to have large positive or negative excursions from the overall downward trends. In contrast to these large interannual effects, ensemble improvement from June to July and August is modest. Among method types, predictions based on statistics and ice-ocean-atmosphere modeling perform better. Thinning ice that is sensitive to summer weather, complicating prediction, reflects our transitional era between a past Arctic cool enough to retain much thick, resistant multiyear ice; and a warmed future Arctic where little ice remains at summer’s end

Assessing students' skills at writing analytically in response to texts

Despite the importance of writing analytically in response to texts, there are few assessments measuring students' mastery of this skill. This manuscript describes the development of a response-to-text assessment (RTA) intended for use in research. In a subsequent validity investigation we examined whether the RTA distinguished among classrooms in students' ability to write analytically in response to text and whether measures of teaching predicted this variation. We demonstrate that the RTA was correlated with the state standardized assessment, but did not overlap with this accountability test completely and, additionally, that more variation between classrooms existed on the RTA. Students' opportunities for reasoning and extended writing in the classroom were significantly associated with RTA scores. The findings suggest that the RTA can be a valuable tool for conducting research on students' attainment of analytic writing skills and for understanding how teaching relates to student achievement on these skills. © 2013 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved

Combining Multiple Measures of Students' Opportunities to Develop Analytic, Text-Based Writing Skills

Guided by evidence that teachers contribute to student achievement outcomes, researchers have been reexamining how to study instruction and the classroom opportunities teachers create for students. We describe our experience measuring students' opportunities to develop analytic, text-based writing skills. Utilizing multiple methods of data collection-writing assignment tasks, daily logs, and an annual survey-we generated a composite that was used in prediction models to examine multivariate outcomes, including scores on a state accountability test and a project-developed response-to-text assessment. Our findings demonstrate that students' opportunities to develop analytic, text-based writing skills predicted classroom performance on the project-developed response-to-text assessment. We discuss the importance of considering the measure(s) of learning when examining teaching-learning associations as well as implications for combining multiple measures for purposes of better construct representation. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future

Public Versus Private: Does It Matter for Water Conservation? Insights from California

This article asks three connected questions: First, does the public view private and public utilities differently, and if so, does this affect attitudes to conservation? Second, do public and private utilities differ in their approaches to conservation? Finally, do differences in the approaches of the utilities, if any, relate to differences in public attitudes? We survey public attitudes in California toward (hypothetical but plausible) voluntary and mandated water conservation, as well as to price increases, during a recent period of shortage. We do this by interviewing households in three pairs of adjacent public and private utilities. We also survey managers of public and private urban water utilities to see if they differ in their approaches to conservation and to their customers. On the user side we do not find pronounced differences, though a minority of customers in all private companies would be more willing to conserve or pay higher prices under a public operator. No respondent in public utility said the reverse. Negative attitudes toward private operators were most pronounced in the pair marked by a controversial recent privatization and a price hike. Nonetheless, we find that California’s history of recurrent droughts and the visible role of the state in water supply and drought management undermine the distinction between public and private. Private utilities themselves work to underplay the distinction by stressing the collective ownership of the water source and the collective value of conservation. Overall, California’s public utilities appear more proactive and target-oriented in asking their customers to conserve than their private counterparts and the state continues to be important in legitimating and guiding conservation behavior, whether the utility is in public hands or private

An investigation of factors associated with the health and well-being of HIV-infected or HIV-affected older people in rural South Africa

BackgroundDespite the severe impact of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, the health of older people aged 50+ is often overlooked owing to the dearth of data on the direct and indirect effects of HIV on older people's health status and well-being. The aim of this study was to examine correlates of health and well-being of HIV-infected older people relative to HIV-affected people in rural South Africa, defined as participants with an HIV-infected or death of an adult child due to HIV-related cause. MethodsData were collected within the Africa Centre surveillance area using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). A stratified random sample of 422 people aged 50+ participated. We compared the health correlates of HIV-infected to HIV-affected participants using ordered logistic regressions. Health status was measured using three instruments: disability index, quality of life and composite health score. ResultsMedian age of the sample was 60 years (range 50-94). Women HIV-infected (aOR 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08-0.29) and HIV-affected (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.50), were significantly less likely than men to be in good functional ability. Women's adjusted odds of being in good overall health state were similarly lower than men's; while income and household wealth status were stronger correlates of quality of life. HIV-infected participants reported better functional ability, quality of life and overall health state than HIV-affected participants. Discussion and Conclusions The enhanced healthcare received as part of anti-retroviral treatment as well as the considerable resources devoted to HIV care appear to benefit the overall well-being of HIV-infected older people; whereas similar resources have not been devoted to the general health needs of HIV uninfected older people. Given increasing numbers of older people, policy and programme interventions are urgently needed to holistically meet the health and well-being needs of older people beyond the HIV-related care system. <br/

Cytogerontology since 1881: A reappraisal of August Weismann and a review of modern progress

Cytogerontology, the science of cellular ageing, originated in 1881 with the prediction by August Weismann that the somatic cells of higher animals have limited division potential. Weismann's prediction was derived by considering the role of natural selection in regulating the duration of an organism's life. For various reasons, Weismann's ideas on ageing fell into neglect following his death in 1914, and cytogerontology has only reappeared as a major research area following the demonstration by Hayflick and Moorhead in the early 1960s that diploid human fibroblasts are restricted to a finite number of divisions in vitro. In this review we give a detailed account of Weismann's theory, and we reveal that his ideas were both more extensive in their scope and more pertinent to current research than is generally recognised. We also appraise the progress which has been made over the past hundred years in investigating the causes of ageing, with particular emphasis being given to (i) the evolution of ageing, and (ii) ageing at the cellular level. We critically assess the current state of knowledge in these areas and recommend a series of points as primary targets for future research

Atomic structures of TDP-43 LCD segments and insights into reversible or pathogenic aggregation.

The normally soluble TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43) is found aggregated both in reversible stress granules and in irreversible pathogenic amyloid. In TDP-43, the low-complexity domain (LCD) is believed to be involved in both types of aggregation. To uncover the structural origins of these two modes of β-sheet-rich aggregation, we have determined ten structures of segments of the LCD of human TDP-43. Six of these segments form steric zippers characteristic of the spines of pathogenic amyloid fibrils; four others form LARKS, the labile amyloid-like interactions characteristic of protein hydrogels and proteins found in membraneless organelles, including stress granules. Supporting a hypothetical pathway from reversible to irreversible amyloid aggregation, we found that familial ALS variants of TDP-43 convert LARKS to irreversible aggregates. Our structures suggest how TDP-43 adopts both reversible and irreversible β-sheet aggregates and the role of mutation in the possible transition of reversible to irreversible pathogenic aggregation

High prevalence of trypanosomes in European badgers detected using ITS-PCR.

BACKGROUND: Wildlife can be important sources and reservoirs for pathogens. Trypanosome infections are common in many mammalian species, and are pathogenic in some. Molecular detection tools were used to measure trypanosome prevalence in a well-studied population of wild European badgers (Meles meles). FINDINGS: A nested ITS-PCR system, that targeted the ribosomal RNA gene locus, has been widely used to detect pathogenic human and animal trypanosomes in domestic animals in Africa and some wildlife hosts. Samples from a long-term DEFRA funded capture-mark-recapture study of wild badgers at Woodchester Park (Gloucestershire, SW England) were investigated for trypanosome prevalence. A total of 82 badger blood samples were examined by nested ITS-PCR. Twenty-nine of the samples were found to be positive for trypanosomes giving a prevalence of 35.4 % (25.9 % - 46.2 %; 95 % CI). Infection was not found to be linked to badger condition, sex or age. Analysis of DNA sequence data showed the badgers to be infected with Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) pestanai and phylogenetic analysis showed the Woodchester badger trypanosomes and T. pestanai to cluster in the Megatrypanum clade. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the ITS Nested PCR is an effective tool for diagnosing trypanosome infection in badgers and suggests that it could be widely used in wildlife species with unknown trypanosomes or mixed infections. The relatively high prevalence observed in these badgers raises the possibility that a significant proportion of UK badgers are naturally infected with trypanosomes