327 research outputs found

    Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

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    © 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

    Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

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    BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

    Reliability of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Diagnosing Pregnancy-Associated Malaria in North-Eastern Tanzania.

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    Accurate diagnosis and prompt treatment of pregnancy-associated malaria (PAM) are key aspects in averting adverse pregnancy outcomes. Microscopy is the gold standard in malaria diagnosis, but it has limited detection and availability. When used appropriately, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) could be an ideal diagnostic complement to microscopy, due to their ease of use and adequate sensitivity in detecting even sub-microscopic infections. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is even more sensitive, but it is mainly used for research purposes. The accuracy and reliability of RDTs in diagnosing PAM was evaluated using microscopy and PCR. A cohort of pregnant women in north-eastern Tanzania was followed throughout pregnancy for detection of plasmodial infection using venous and placental blood samples evaluated by histidine rich protein 2 (HRP-2) and parasite lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) based RDTs (Parascreen™) or HRP-2 only (Paracheck Pf® and ParaHIT®f), microscopy and nested Plasmodium species diagnostic PCR. From a cohort of 924 pregnant women who completed the follow up, complete RDT and microscopy data was available for 5,555 blood samples and of these 442 samples were analysed by PCR. Of the 5,555 blood samples, 49 ((proportion and 95% confidence interval) 0.9% [0.7 -1.1]) samples were positive by microscopy and 91 (1.6% [1.3-2.0]) by RDT. Forty-six (50.5% [40.5 - 60.6]) and 45 (49.5% [39.4 - 59.5]) of the RDT positive samples were positive and negative by microscopy, respectively, whereas nineteen (42.2% [29.0 - 56.7]) of the microscopy negative, but RDT positive, samples were positive by PCR. Three (0.05% [0.02 - 0.2]) samples were positive by microscopy but negative by RDT. 351 of the 5,461 samples negative by both RDT and microscopy were tested by PCR and found negative. There was no statistically significant difference between the performances of the different RDTs. Microscopy underestimated the real burden of malaria during pregnancy and RDTs performed better than microscopy in diagnosing PAM. In areas where intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy may be abandoned due to low and decreasing malaria risk and instead replaced with active case management, screening with RDT is likely to identify most infections in pregnant women and out-performs microscopy as a diagnostic tool

    Fooling primality tests on smartcards

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    We analyse whether the smartcards of the JavaCard platform correctly validate primality of domain parameters. The work is inspired by the paper Prime and prejudice: primality testing under adversarial conditions, where the authors analysed many open-source libraries and constructed pseudoprimes fooling the primality testing functions. However, in the case of smartcards, often there is no way to invoke the primality test directly, so we trigger it by replacing (EC)DSA and (EC)DH prime domain parameters by adversarial composites. Such a replacement results in vulnerability to Pohlig-Hellman style attacks, leading to private key recovery. Out of nine smartcards (produced by five major manufacturers) we tested, all but one have no primality test in parameter validation. As the JavaCard platform provides no public primality testing API, the problem cannot be fixed by an extra parameter check, %an additional check before the parameters are passed to existing (EC)DSA and (EC)DH functions, making it difficult to mitigate in already deployed smartcards

    Nicotinic Receptor Alpha7 Expression during Tooth Morphogenesis Reveals Functional Pleiotropy

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    The expression of nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) subtype, alpha7, was investigated in the developing teeth of mice that were modified through homologous recombination to express a bi-cistronic IRES-driven tau-enhanced green fluorescent protein (GFP); alpha7GFP) or IRES-Cre (alpha7Cre). The expression of alpha7GFP was detected first in cells of the condensing mesenchyme at embryonic (E) day E13.5 where it intensifies through E14.5. This expression ends abruptly at E15.5, but was again observed in ameloblasts of incisors at E16.5 or molar ameloblasts by E17.5–E18.5. This expression remains detectable until molar enamel deposition is completed or throughout life as in the constantly erupting mouse incisors. The expression of alpha7GFP also identifies all stages of innervation of the tooth organ. Ablation of the alpha7-cell lineage using a conditional alpha7Cre×ROSA26-LoxP(diphtheria toxin A) strategy substantially reduced the mesenchyme and this corresponded with excessive epithelium overgrowth consistent with an instructive role by these cells during ectoderm patterning. However, alpha7knock-out (KO) mice exhibited normal tooth size and shape indicating that under normal conditions alpha7 expression is dispensable to this process. The function of ameloblasts in alpha7KO mice is altered relative to controls. High resolution micro-computed tomography analysis of adult mandibular incisors revealed enamel volume of the alpha7KO was significantly reduced and the organization of enamel rods was altered relative to controls. These results demonstrate distinct and varied spatiotemporal expression of alpha7 during tooth development, and they suggest that dysfunction of this receptor would have diverse impacts upon the adult organ

    Proinflammatory genotype is associated with the frailty phenotype in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

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    Background: Frailty is a state of increased vulnerability to poor resolution of homeostasis after a stressor event, which increases the risk of adverse outcomes including falls, disability and death. The underlying pathophysiological pathways of frailty are not known but the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis and heightened chronic systemic inflammation appear to be major contributors. Methods: We used the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing dataset of 3160 individuals over the age of 50 and assessed their frailty status according to the Fried-criteria. We selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes involved in the steroid hormone or inflammatory pathways and performed linear association analysis using age and sex as covariates. To support the biological plausibility of any genetic associations, we selected biomarker levels for further analyses to act as potential endophenotypes of our chosen genetic loci. Results: The strongest association with frailty was observed in the Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) (rs1800629, P = 0.001198, β = 0.0894) and the Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase, Receptor type, J (PTPRJ) (rs1566729, P = 0.001372, β = 0.09397) genes. Rs1800629 was significantly associated with decreased levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (P = 0.00949) and cholesterol levels (P = 0.00315), whereas rs1566729 was associated with increased levels of HDL (P = 0.01943). After correcting for multiple testing none of the associations remained significant. Conclusions: We provide potential evidence for the involvement of a multifunctional proinflammatory cytokine gene (TNF) in the frailty phenotype. The implication of this gene is further supported by association with the endophenotype biomarker results
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