Epidemiology of Subpatent Plasmodium Falciparum Infection: Implications for Detection of Hotspots with Imperfect Diagnostics.

At the local level, malaria transmission clusters in hotspots, which may be a group of households that experience higher than average exposure to infectious mosquitoes. Active case detection often relying on rapid diagnostic tests for mass screen and treat campaigns has been proposed as a method to detect and treat individuals in hotspots. Data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in north-western Tanzania were used to examine the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and the relationship between household exposure and parasite density. Dried blood spots were collected from consenting individuals from four villages during a survey conducted in 2010. These were analysed by PCR for the presence of P. falciparum, with the parasite density of positive samples being estimated by quantitative PCR. Household exposure was estimated using the distance-weighted PCR prevalence of infection. Parasite density simulations were used to estimate the proportion of infections that would be treated using a screen and treat approach with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) compared to targeted mass drug administration (tMDA) and Mass Drug Administration (MDA). Polymerase chain reaction PCR analysis revealed that of the 3,057 blood samples analysed, 1,078 were positive. Mean distance-weighted PCR prevalence per household was 34.5%. Parasite density was negatively associated with transmission intensity with the odds of an infection being subpatent increasing with household exposure (OR 1.09 per 1% increase in exposure). Parasite density was also related to age, being highest in children five to ten years old and lowest in those > 40 years. Simulations of different tMDA strategies showed that treating all individuals in households where RDT prevalence was above 20% increased the number of infections that would have been treated from 43 to 55%. However, even with this strategy, 45% of infections remained untreated. The negative relationship between household exposure and parasite density suggests that DNA-based detection of parasites is needed to provide adequate sensitivity in hotspots. Targeting MDA only to households with RDT-positive individuals may allow a larger fraction of infections to be treated. These results suggest that community-wide MDA, instead of screen and treat strategies, may be needed to successfully treat the asymptomatic, subpatent parasite reservoir and reduce transmission in similar settings

Identification of malaria transmission and epidemic hotspots in the western Kenya highlands: its application to malaria epidemic prediction

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria in the western Kenya highlands is characterized by unstable and high transmission variability which results in epidemics during periods of suitable climatic conditions. The sensitivity of a site to malaria epidemics depends on the level of immunity of the human population. This study examined how terrain in the highlands affects exposure and sensitivity of a site to malaria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was conducted in five sites in the western Kenya highlands, two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu, Emutete), two V-shaped valleys (Marani, Fort-Ternan) and one plateau (Shikondi) for 16 months among 6-15 years old children. Exposure to malaria was tested using circum-sporozoite protein (CSP) and merozoite surface protein (MSP) immunochromatographic antibody tests; malaria infections were tested by microscopic examination of thick and thin smears, the children's homes were georeferenced using a global positioning system. Paired t-test was used to compare the mean prevalence rates of the sites, K-function was use to determine if the clustering of malaria infections was significant.</p> <p>Results and Discussion</p> <p>The mean antibody prevalence was 22.6% in Iguhu, 24% in Emutete, 11.5% in Shikondi, 8.3% in Fort-Ternan and 9.3% in Marani. The mean malaria infection prevalence was 23.3% in Iguhu, 21.9% in Emutete, 4.7% in Shikondi, 2.9% in Fort-Ternan and 2.4% in Marani. There was a significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence between the two valley systems, and between the two valley systems and the plateau (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence in the two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu and Emutete) and in the V-shaped valleys (Marani and Fort Ternan) (P > 0.05). There was 8.5- fold and a 2-fold greater parasite and antibody prevalence respectively, in the U-shaped compared to the V-shaped valleys. The plateau antibody and parasite prevalence was similar to that of the V-shaped valleys. There was clustering of malaria antibodies and infections around flat areas in the U-shaped valleys, the infections were randomly distributed in the V-shaped valleys and less clustered at the plateau.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed that the V-shaped ecosystems have very low malaria prevalence and few individuals with an immune response to two major malaria antigens and they can be considered as epidemic hotspots. These populations are at higher risk of severe forms of malaria during hyper-transmission seasons. The plateau ecosystem has a similar infection and immune response to the V-shaped ecosystems. The U-shaped ecosystems are transmission hotspots.</p

School-based surveys of malaria in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: a rapid survey method for malaria in low transmission settings

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, malaria transmission is seasonal and unstable, with both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax endemic. Such spatial and temporal clustering of malaria only serves to underscore the importance of regularly collecting up-to-date malaria surveillance data to inform decision-making in malaria control. Cross-sectional school-based malaria surveys were conducted across Oromia Regional State to generate up-to-date data for planning malaria control interventions, as well as monitoring and evaluation of operational programme implementation. METHODS: Two hundred primary schools were randomly selected using a stratified and weighted sampling frame; 100 children aged five to 18 years were then randomly chosen within each school. Surveys were carried out in May 2009 and from October to December 2009, to coincide with the peak of malaria transmission in different parts of Oromia. Each child was tested for malaria by expert microscopy, their haemoglobin measured and a simple questionnaire completed. Satellite-derived environmental data were used to assess ecological correlates of Plasmodium infection; Bayesian geostatistical methods and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic were employed to investigate spatial heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total 20,899 children from 197 schools provided blood samples, two selected schools were inaccessible and one school refused to participate. The overall prevalence of Plasmodium infection was found to be 0.56% (95% CI: 0.46-0.67%), with 53% of infections due to P. falciparum and 47% due to P. vivax. Of children surveyed, 17.6% (95% CI: 17.0-18.1%) were anaemic, while 46% reported sleeping under a mosquito net the previous night. Malaria was found at 30 (15%) schools to a maximum elevation of 2,187 metres, with school-level Plasmodium prevalence ranging between 0% and 14.5%. Although environmental variables were only weakly associated with P. falciparum and P. vivax infection, clusters of infection were identified within Oromia. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the marked spatial heterogeneity of malaria in Oromia and, in general, Ethiopia, and provide a strong epidemiological basis for planning as well as monitoring and evaluating malaria control in a setting with seasonal and unstable malaria transmission

Community screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium falciparum with artemether-lumefantrine to reduce malaria disease burden: a modelling and simulation analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Asymptomatic carriers of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>serve as a reservoir of parasites for malaria transmission. Identification and treatment of asymptomatic carriers within a region may reduce the parasite reservoir and influence malaria transmission in that area.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using computer simulation, this analysis explored the impact of community screening campaigns (CSC) followed by systematic treatment of <it>P. falciparum </it>asymptomatic carriers (AC) with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) on disease transmission. The model created by Okell <it>et al </it>(originally designed to explore the impact of the introduction of treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy on malaria endemicity) was modified to represent CSC and treatment of AC with AL, with the addition of malaria vector seasonality. The age grouping, relative distribution of age in a region, and degree of heterogeneity in disease transmission were maintained. The number and frequency of CSC and their relative timing were explored in terms of their effect on malaria incidence. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the factors with the greatest impact on the model predictions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The simulation showed that the intervention that had the largest effect was performed in an area with high endemicity (entomological inoculation rate, EIR > 200); however, the rate of infection returned to its normal level in the subsequent year, unless the intervention was repeated. In areas with low disease burden (EIR < 10), the reduction was sustained for over three years after a single intervention. Three CSC scheduled in close succession (monthly intervals) at the start of the dry season had the greatest impact on the success of the intervention.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Community screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers with AL may reduce malaria transmission significantly. The initial level of disease intensity has the greatest impact on the potential magnitude and duration of malaria reduction. When combined with other interventions (e.g. long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, rapid diagnostic tests, prompt diagnosis and treatment, and, where appropriate, indoor residual spraying) the effect of this intervention can be sustained for many years, and it could become a tool to accelerate the reduction in transmission intensity to pre-elimination levels. Repeated interventions at least every other year may help to prolong the effect. The use of an effective diagnostic tool and a highly effective ACT, such as AL, is also vital. The modelling supports the evaluation of this approach in a prospective clinical trial to reduce the pool of infective vectors for malaria transmission in an area with marked seasonality.</p

Hot Spot or Not: A Comparison of Spatial Statistical Methods to Predict Prospective Malaria Infections.

Within affected communities, Plasmodium falciparum infections may be skewed in distribution such that single or small clusters of households consistently harbour a disproportionate number of infected individuals throughout the year. Identifying these hotspots of malaria transmission would permit targeting of interventions and a more rapid reduction in malaria burden across the whole community. This study set out to compare different statistical methods of hotspot detection (SaTScan, kernel smoothing, weighted local prevalence) using different indicators (PCR positivity, AMA-1 and MSP-1 antibodies) for prediction of infection the following year. Two full surveys of four villages in Mwanza, Tanzania were completed over consecutive years, 2010-2011. In both surveys, infection was assessed using nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR). In addition in 2010, serologic markers (AMA-1 and MSP-119 antibodies) of exposure were assessed. Baseline clustering of infection and serological markers were assessed using three geospatial methods: spatial scan statistics, kernel analysis and weighted local prevalence analysis. Methods were compared in their ability to predict infection in the second year of the study using random effects logistic regression models, and comparisons of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for each model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect of varying radius size for the kernel and weighted local prevalence methods and maximum population size for the spatial scan statistic. Guided by AUC values, the kernel method and spatial scan statistics appeared to be more predictive of infection in the following year. Hotspots of PCR-detected infection and seropositivity to AMA-1 were predictive of subsequent infection. For the kernel method, a 1 km window was optimal. Similarly, allowing hotspots to contain up to 50% of the population was a better predictor of infection in the second year using spatial scan statistics than smaller maximum population sizes. Clusters of AMA-1 seroprevalence or parasite prevalence that are predictive of infection a year later can be identified using geospatial models. Kernel smoothing using a 1 km window and spatial scan statistics both provided accurate prediction of future infection

Cost-effectiveness of adding indoor residual spraying to case management in Afghan refugee settlements in Northwest Pakistan during a prolonged malaria epidemic.

INTRODUCTION: Financing of malaria control for displaced populations is limited in scope and duration, making cost-effectiveness analyses relevant but difficult. This study analyses cost-effectiveness of adding prevention through targeted indoor residual spraying (IRS) to case management in Afghan refugee settlements in Pakistan during a prolonged malaria epidemic. METHODS/FINDINGS: An intervention study design was selected, taking a societal perspective. Provider and household costs of vector control and case management were collected from provider records and community survey. Health outcomes (e.g. cases and DALYs averted) were derived and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for cases prevented and DALYs averted calculated. Population, treatment cost, women's time, days of productivity lost, case fatality rate, cases prevented, and DALY assumptions were tested in sensitivity analysis. Malaria incidence peaked at 44/1,000 population in year 2, declining to 14/1,000 in year 5. In total, 370,000 malaria cases, 80% vivax, were diagnosed and treated and an estimated 67,988 vivax cases and 18,578 falciparum and mixed cases prevented. Mean annual programme cost per capita was US$0.56. The additional cost of including IRS over five years per case prevented was US$39; US$50 for vivax (US$43 in years 1-3, US$80 in years 4-5) and US$182 for falciparum (US$139 in years 1-3 and US$680 in years 4-5). Per DALY averted this was US$266 (US$220 in years 1-3 and US$486 in years 4-5) and thus 'highly cost-effective' or cost-effective using WHO and comparison thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Adding IRS was cost-effective in this moderate endemicity, low mortality setting. It was more cost-effective when transmission was highest, becoming less so as transmission reduced. Because vivax was three times more common than falciparum and the case fatality rate was low, cost-effectiveness estimations for cases prevented appear reliable and more definitive for vivax malaria

Poor nutritional status of schoolchildren in urban and peri-urban areas of Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malnutrition is still highly prevalent in developing countries. Schoolchildren may also be at high nutritional risk, not only under-five children. However, their nutritional status is poorly documented, particularly in urban areas. The paucity of information hinders the development of relevant nutrition programs for schoolchildren. The aim of this study carried out in Ouagadougou was to assess the nutritional status of schoolchildren attending public and private schools.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was carried out to provide baseline data for the implementation and evaluation of the Nutrition Friendly School Initiative of WHO. Six intervention schools and six matched control schools were selected and a sample of 649 schoolchildren (48% boys) aged 7-14 years old from 8 public and 4 private schools were studied. Anthropometric and haemoglobin measurements, along with thyroid palpation, were performed. Serum retinol was measured in a random sub-sample of children (N = 173). WHO criteria were used to assess nutritional status. Chi square and independent t-test were used for proportions and mean comparisons between groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean age of the children (48% boys) was 11.5 ± 1.2 years. Micronutrient malnutrition was highly prevalent, with 38.7% low serum retinol and 40.4% anaemia. The prevalence of stunting was 8.8% and that of thinness, 13.7%. The prevalence of anaemia (p = 0.001) and vitamin A deficiency (p < 0.001) was significantly higher in public than private schools. Goitre was not detected. Overweight/obesity was low (2.3%) and affected significantly more children in private schools (p = 0.009) and younger children (7-9 y) (p < 0.05). Thinness and stunting were significantly higher in peri-urban compared to urban schools (p < 0.05 and p = 0.004 respectively). Almost 15% of the children presented at least two nutritional deficiencies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study shows that malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are also widely prevalent in schoolchildren in cities, and it underlines the need for nutrition interventions to target them.</p

Vibrational analysis of d-PCL(530)/siloxane based hybrids doped with two lithium salts

Published online: 22 May 2013The present study has been focused on environmentally friendly sol-gel derived electrolytes based on a di-urethane cross-linked d-PCL(530)/siloxane network (where d represents di, PCL identifies the poly(ε–caprolactone) biopolymer and 530 is the average molecular weight in g.mol-1) doped with a wide range of concentration of lithium perchlorate (LiClO4) and lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI). Fourier Transform Infrared and Raman (FT-IR and FT-Raman, respectively) spectroscopies have been applied to evaluate the extent of ionic association. Characteristic bands of the PCL(530) segments, of the urethane cross-links and of the anions have been examined to gain insight into the cation/biopolymer, cation/anion and cation/cross-link interactions. In both electrolyte systems “free” ions and contact ions have been identified. The addition of salt modifies the hydrogen-bonded array of the host matrix, causing the destruction/formation of the urethane/urethane aggregates.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the northwest hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities’ long-term survival

The Neglected Tropical Diseases of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Review of Disease Burden and Distribution and a Roadmap for Control and Elimination

The neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) represent some of the most common infections of the poorest people living in the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC). Because they primarily afflict the disenfranchised poor as well as selected indigenous populations and people of African descent, the NTDs in LAC are largely forgotten diseases even though their collective disease burden may exceed better known conditions such as of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, or malaria. Based on their prevalence and healthy life years lost from disability, hookworm infection, other soil-transmitted helminth infections, and Chagas disease are the most important NTDs in LAC, followed by dengue, schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis, trachoma, leprosy, and lymphatic filariasis. On the other hand, for some important NTDs, such as leptospirosis and cysticercosis, complete disease burden estimates are not available. The NTDs in LAC geographically concentrate in 11 different sub-regions, each with a distinctive human and environmental ecology. In the coming years, schistosomiasis could be eliminated in the Caribbean and transmission of lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis could be eliminated in Latin America. However, the highest disease burden NTDs, such as Chagas disease, soil-transmitted helminth infections, and hookworm and schistosomiasis co-infections, may first require scale-up of existing resources or the development of new control tools in order to achieve control or elimination. Ultimately, the roadmap for the control and elimination of the more widespread NTDs will require an inter-sectoral approach that bridges public health, social services, and environmental interventions