RCTs: How compatible are they with policy-making?

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been promoted as a means of improving policy-making by testing new policies. While testing before full-scale roll-out is commendable, this paper discusses the challenges of using RCTs in contemporary (national) health policy-making in England. There are at least two challenges in particular that are currently underrepresented in the debate: The first arises from the complexity of many policies which are often too diffuse and unclear in focus to allow for the clear distinction between a policy ‘mechanism’ and its context to be drawn that is required for a RCT. The second challenge relates to the timing of RCTs, which tend to take place either too early in the life of a policy to be meaningful or too late to have an effect on policy formulation. We therefore encourage policy-makers and researchers to be clear about the types of uncertainties ‘field experiments’ are meant to address which may be addressed better by other types of knowledge generation

Measuring Progress in Robotics: Benchmarking and the ‘Measure-Target Confusion’

While it is often said that in order to qualify as a true science robotics should aspire to reproducible and measurable results that allow benchmarking, I argue that a focus on benchmarking will be a hindrance for progress. Several academic disciplines that have been led into pursuing only reproducible and measurable ‘scientific’ results—robotics should be careful not to fall into that trap. Results that can be benchmarked must be specific and context-dependent, but robotics targets whole complex systems independently of a specific context—so working towards progress on the technical measure risks missing that target. It would constitute aiming for the measure rather than the target: what I call ‘measure-target confusion’. The role of benchmarking in robotics shows that the more general problem to measure progress towards more intelligent machines will not be solved by technical benchmarks; we need a balanced approach with technical benchmarks, real-life testing and qualitative judgment

Approximation for Cooperative Interactions of a Spatially-Detailed Cardiac Sarcomere Model

We developed a novel ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, which produced results that correlated well with the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation when applied to a spatially-detailed model of the cardiac sarcomere. Configuration of the novel ODE model was based on the Ising model of myofilaments, with the “co-operative activation” effect introduced to incorporate nearest-neighbor interactions. First, a set of parameters was estimated using arbitrary Ca transient data to reproduce the combinational probability for the states of three consecutive regulatory units, using single unit probabilities for central and neighboring units in the MC simulation. The parameter set thus obtained enabled the calculation of the state transition of each unit using the ODE model with reference to the neighboring states. The present ODE model not only provided good agreement with the MC simulation results but was also capable of reproducing a wide range of experimental results under both steady-state and dynamic conditions including shortening twitch. The simulation results suggested that the nearest-neighbor interaction is a reasonable approximation of the cooperativity based on end-to-end interactions. Utilizing the modified ODE model resulted in a reduction in computational costs but maintained spatial integrity and co-operative effects, making it a powerful tool in cardiac modeling

SPACE for physical activity - a multicomponent intervention study: study design and baseline findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of the School site, Play Spot, Active transport, Club fitness and Environment (SPACE) Study was to develop, document, and assess a comprehensive intervention in local school districts that promote everyday physical activity (PA) among 11-15-year-old adolescents. The study is based on a social ecological framework, and is designed to implement organizational and structural changes in the physical environment.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>The SPACE Study used a cluster randomized controlled study design. Twenty-one eligible schools in the Region of Southern Denmark were matched and randomized in seven pairs according to eight matching variables summarized in an audit tool (crow-fly distance from residence to school for 5-6^thgraders; area household income; area education level; area ethnicity distribution; school district urbanity; condition and characteristics of school outdoor areas; school health policy; and active transport in the local area). Baseline measurements with accelerometers, questionnaires, diaries, and physical fitness tests were obtained in Spring 2010 in 5-6^thgrade in 7 intervention and 7 control schools, with follow-up measurements to be taken in Spring 2012 in 7-8^thgrade. The primary outcome measure is objective average daily physical activity and will be supported by analyses of time spent in moderate to vigorous activity and time spent sedentary. Other secondary outcome measures will be obtained, such as, overweight, physical fitness, active commuting to/from school and physical activity in recess periods.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>A total of 1348 adolescents in 5-6^thgrade in the Region of Southern Denmark participated at baseline (n = 14 schools). The response rate was high in all type of measurements (72.6-97.4%). There were no significant differences between intervention and control groups at baseline according to selected background variables and outcome measures: gender (p = .54), age (p = .17), BMI (p = .59), waist circumference (p = .17), physical fitness (p = .93), and physical activity (accelerometer) (p = .09).</p> <p>The randomization and matched pair design produced equivalent groups according to central outcome measures and background variables. The SPACE for physical activity Study will provide new insights on the effectiveness of multicomponent interventions to improve adolescents' physical activity level.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN79122411">ISRCTN79122411</a></p

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Gender perspectives on views and preferences of older people on exercise to prevent falls: a systematic mixed studies review

Background: To offer fall prevention exercise programs that attract older people of both sexes there is a need to understand both womens and mens views and preferences regarding these programs. This paper aims to systematically review the literature to explore any underlying gender perspectives or gender interpretations on older peoples views or preferences regarding uptake and adherence to exercise to prevent falls. Methods: A review of the literature was carried out using a convergent qualitative design based on systematic searches of seven electronic databases (PubMed, CINAHL, Amed, PsycINFO, Scopus, PEDro, and OTseeker). Two investigators identified eligible studies. Each included article was read by at least two authors independently to extract data into tables. Views and preferences reported were coded and summarized in themes of facilitators and barriers using a thematic analysis approach. Results: Nine hundred and nine unique studies were identified. Twenty five studies met the criteria for inclusion. Only five of these contained a gender analysis of mens and womens views on fall prevention exercises. The results suggests that both women and men see women as more receptive to and in more need of fall prevention messages. The synthesis from all 25 studies identified six themes illustrating facilitators and six themes describing barriers for older people either starting or adhering to fall prevention exercise. The facilitators were: support from professionals or family; social interaction; perceived benefits; a supportive exercise context; feelings of commitment; and having fun. Barriers were: practical issues; concerns about exercise; unawareness; reduced health status; lack of support; and lack of interest. Considerably more women than men were included in the studies. Conclusion: Although there is plenty of information on the facilitators and barriers to falls prevention exercise in older people, there is a distinct lack of studies investigating differences or similarities in older womens and mens views regarding fall prevention exercise. In order to ensure that fall prevention exercise is appealing to both sexes and that the inclusion of both men and women are encouraged, more research is needed to find out whether gender differences exists and whether practitioners need to offer a range of opportunities and support strategies to attract both women and men to falls prevention exercise.Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council [2015-03481]; Strategic Research Programme in Care Sciences, Umea University; Karolinska Institute, Sweden; Umea University</p

Cryptosporidium Priming Is More Effective than Vaccine for Protection against Cryptosporidiosis in a Murine Protein Malnutrition Model

Cryptosporidium is a major cause of severe diarrhea, especially in malnourished children. Using a murine model of C. parvum oocyst challenge that recapitulates clinical features of severe cryptosporidiosis during malnutrition, we interrogated the effect of protein malnutrition (PM) on primary and secondary responses to C. parvum challenge, and tested the differential ability of mucosal priming strategies to overcome the PM-induced susceptibility. We determined that while PM fundamentally alters systemic and mucosal primary immune responses to Cryptosporidium, priming with C. parvum (106 oocysts) provides robust protective immunity against re-challenge despite ongoing PM. C. parvum priming restores mucosal Th1-type effectors (CD3+CD8+CD103+ T-cells) and cytokines (IFNγ, and IL12p40) that otherwise decrease with ongoing PM. Vaccination strategies with Cryptosporidium antigens expressed in the S. Typhi vector 908htr, however, do not enhance Th1-type responses to C. parvum challenge during PM, even though vaccination strongly boosts immunity in challenged fully nourished hosts. Remote non-specific exposures to the attenuated S. Typhi vector alone or the TLR9 agonist CpG ODN-1668 can partially attenuate C. parvum severity during PM, but neither as effectively as viable C. parvum priming. We conclude that although PM interferes with basal and vaccine-boosted immune responses to C. parvum, sustained reductions in disease severity are possible through mucosal activators of host defenses, and specifically C. parvum priming can elicit impressively robust Th1-type protective immunity despite ongoing protein malnutrition. These findings add insight into potential correlates of Cryptosporidium immunity and future vaccine strategies in malnourished children

Non-thermal emission processes in massive binaries

In this paper, I present a general discussion of several astrophysical processes likely to play a role in the production of non-thermal emission in massive stars, with emphasis on massive binaries. Even though the discussion will start in the radio domain where the non-thermal emission was first detected, the census of physical processes involved in the non-thermal emission from massive stars shows that many spectral domains are concerned, from the radio to the very high energies. First, the theoretical aspects of the non-thermal emission from early-type stars will be addressed. The main topics that will be discussed are respectively the physics of individual stellar winds and their interaction in binary systems, the acceleration of relativistic electrons, the magnetic field of massive stars, and finally the non-thermal emission processes relevant to the case of massive stars. Second, this general qualitative discussion will be followed by a more quantitative one, devoted to the most probable scenario where non-thermal radio emitters are massive binaries. I will show how several stellar, wind and orbital parameters can be combined in order to make some semi-quantitative predictions on the high-energy counterpart to the non-thermal emission detected in the radio domain. These theoretical considerations will be followed by a census of results obtained so far, and related to this topic... (see paper for full abstract)Comment: 47 pages, 5 postscript figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. Astronomy and Astrophysics Review, in pres

Timing, rates and spectra of human germline mutation.

Germline mutations are a driving force behind genome evolution and genetic disease. We investigated genome-wide mutation rates and spectra in multi-sibling families. The mutation rate increased with paternal age in all families, but the number of additional mutations per year differed by more than twofold between families. Meta-analysis of 6,570 mutations showed that germline methylation influences mutation rates. In contrast to somatic mutations, we found remarkable consistency in germline mutation spectra between the sexes and at different paternal ages. In parental germ line, 3.8% of mutations were mosaic, resulting in 1.3% of mutations being shared by siblings. The number of these shared mutations varied significantly between families. Our data suggest that the mutation rate per cell division is higher during both early embryogenesis and differentiation of primordial germ cells but is reduced substantially during post-pubertal spermatogenesis. These findings have important consequences for the recurrence risks of disorders caused by de novo mutations

Guillain-Barré syndrome: a century of progress

In 1916, Guillain, Barré and Strohl reported on two cases of acute flaccid paralysis with high cerebrospinal fluid protein levels and normal cell counts — novel findings that identified the disease we now know as Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS). 100 years on, we have made great progress with the clinical and pathological characterization of GBS. Early clinicopathological and animal studies indicated that GBS was an immune-mediated demyelinating disorder, and that severe GBS could result in secondary axonal injury; the current treatments of plasma exchange and intravenous immunoglobulin, which were developed in the 1980s, are based on this premise. Subsequent work has, however, shown that primary axonal injury can be the underlying disease. The association of Campylobacter jejuni strains has led to confirmation that anti-ganglioside antibodies are pathogenic and that axonal GBS involves an antibody and complement-mediated disruption of nodes of Ranvier, neuromuscular junctions and other neuronal and glial membranes. Now, ongoing clinical trials of the complement inhibitor eculizumab are the first targeted immunotherapy in GBS