Machine Learning Can Predict the Timing and Size of Analog Earthquakes

Despite the growing spatiotemporal density of geophysical observations at subduction zones, predicting the timing and size of future earthquakes remains a challenge. Here we simulate multiple seismic cycles in a laboratory‐scale subduction zone. The model creates both partial and full margin ruptures, simulating magnitude M_w 6.2–8.3 earthquakes with a coefficient of variation in recurrence intervals of 0.5, similar to real subduction zones. We show that the common procedure of estimating the next earthquake size from slip‐deficit is unreliable. On the contrary, machine learning predicts well the timing and size of laboratory earthquakes by reconstructing and properly interpreting the spatiotemporally complex loading history of the system. These results promise substantial progress in real earthquake forecasting, as they suggest that the complex motion recorded by geodesists at subduction zones might be diagnostic of earthquake imminence

Premiers résultats des plongées Nautile de la campagne SUBPSO 1 sur la zone de collision "ride des Loyauté arc des Nouvelles-Hébrides" (Sud-Ouest Pacifique)

International audienceFour dives were conducted over the collision zone "Loyalty ridge/New Hebrides arc". On the Loyalty ridge, basaltic and rhyolitic breccias overlain by reef limestones were observed. An andesitic volcaniclastic sequence outcrops on the western flank of the New Hebrides arc. Near the trench, the Loyalty ridge has been sliced by normal faults along which the reef limestones collapsed of at least 4,000m. The unusual existence ofSW verging anticlines on the outer wall, 1,000m above the trench, was confirmed. These folds affect rocks ofthe lowerpartofthe ridge flank.Quatre plongées, réalisées sur la zone de collision «ride des Loyauté/arc des NouvellesHébrides », ont permis d'observer: (1) sur la ride des Loyauté, en mur externe de la fosse, des formations volcano-détritiques basaltiques et rhyolitiques, coiffées par des calcaires récifaux, le toutintensément fracturé; (2) sur le flanc occidental de l'arc néo-hébridais, en mur interne de la fosse, une série volcano-détritique andésitique. A l'approche de la fosse, des failles normales ont découpé la ride des Loyauté, amenant les calcaires récifaux jusqu'à des profondeurs de plus de 4000m. Enfin, la présence inhabituelle de plis déjetés vers le SW sur le mur externe, 1000 m au-dessus de la fosse, a été confirmée; ils semblent s'être développés aux dépens de matériel de la partie inférieure du flanc de la ride

A lattice Boltzmann study of non-hydrodynamic effects in shell models of turbulence

A lattice Boltzmann scheme simulating the dynamics of shell models of turbulence is developed. The influence of high order kinetic modes (ghosts) on the dissipative properties of turbulence dynamics is studied. It is analytically found that when ghost fields relax on the same time scale as the hydrodynamic ones, their major effect is a net enhancement of the fluid viscosity. The bare fluid viscosity is recovered by letting ghost fields evolve on a much longer time scale. Analytical results are borne out by high-resolution numerical simulations. These simulations indicate that the hydrodynamic manifold is very robust towards large fluctuations of non hydrodynamic fields.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Physica

Towards higher order lattice Boltzmann schemes

In this contribution we extend the Taylor expansion method proposed previously by one of us and establish equivalent partial differential equations of DDH lattice Boltzmann scheme at an arbitrary order of accuracy. We derive formally the associated dynamical equations for classical thermal and linear fluid models in one to three space dimensions. We use this approach to adjust relaxation parameters in order to enforce fourth order accuracy for thermal model and diffusive relaxation modes of the Stokes problem. We apply the resulting scheme for numerical computation of associated eigenmodes and compare our results with analytical references

Premiers résultats des plongées de la campagne SUBPSO 1 dans la zone de collision des rides d'Entrecasteaux et de l'arc des Nouvelles-Hébrides

International audienceGeological cross-sections,constructed from observations and samples collected during seven dives of theFrench submersible Nautile,reveal that the inner wall of the New Hebrides trench, in front of the North d'Entrecasteaux ridge and the Bougainville guyot,is primarily composed of volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks, most likely shed from the arc. Observations indicate that the bedding of thearc-slope rocks,which generally slopes trench ward in this collision zone,dips steeply (40-80°) arcward near the contact of the colliding features. In this particular area, arc-slope rocks are generally highly fractured and sheared, an exception being rocks forming the ridge east of the Bougainville guyot.Arc-slope rocks are deeply incised by erosional channels and show numerous fresh slump scars. These scars confirm the importance of mass wasting along the deformation front. No evidence for fluid venting,such as clams and mud volcanoes,was observed during the dives.Les coupes géologiques réalisées à partir de sept plongées du Nautile ont montré que le mur interne de la fosse des Nouvelles-hébrides,en face de la ride Nord d'Entrecasteaux et du guyot Bougainville,est essentiellement constitué par des formations volcaniques et volcano-détritiques provenant probablement de l'arc. Ces formations, généralement inclinées vers la fosse, ont,au contact de la ride et du guyot,rebroussées vers le haut et pentées de 40 à 80°vers l'arc. A ces niveaux,les roches sont intensément fracturées et cisaillées à l'exception de celles constituant le bourrelet qui surplombe le toit du guyot Bougainville.Le mur interne présente enfin une morphologie remarquable comprenant des loupes d'arrachement gravitaire,des chenaux d'érosion, des canyons et,localement,des marmites de géant.Ces figures confirment l'importance de l'érosion gravitaire le long du front de déformation.Aucune manifestation de sorties de fluides n'a été observée lors de ces plongées

Geology of the d'Entrecasteaux - New Hebrides arc collision zone : results from a deep submersible survey

International audienceDuring the SuBPSOl cruise, seven submersible dives were conducted between water depths of 5350 and 900 m over the collision zone between the New Hebrides island arc and the d'Entrecasteaux Zone (DEZ). The DEZ, a topographic high on the Australian plate, encompasses the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge (NDR) and the Bougainville guyot, both of which collide with the island-arc slope. In this report we use diving observations and samples, as well as dredging results, to analyse the geology of the Bougainville guyot and the outer arc slope in the DEZ-arc collision zone, and to decipher the mechanisms of seamount subduction. These data indicate that the Bougainville guyot is a middle Eocene island arc volcanocapped with reef limestones that appear to have been deposited during the Late Oligocene to Early Miocene and in Miocene-Pliocene times. This guyot possibly emerged during the Middle and Late Miocene, and started to sink in the New Hebrides trench after the Pliocene. The rocks of the New Hebrides arc slope, in the collision zone, consist primarily of Pliocene-Recent volcaniclastic rocks derived from the arc, and underlying fractured island-arc volcanic basement, possibly of Late Miocene age. However, highly sheared, Upper Oligocene to Lower Miocene nannofossil ooze and chalk are exposed at the toe of the arc slope against the northern flank of the NDR. Based on a comparison with cores collected at DSDP Site 286, the ooze and chalk can be interpreted as sediments accreted from the downgoing plate. East of the Bougainville guyot an antifonn that developed in the arc slope as a consequence of the collision reveals a 500-m-thick wedge of strongly tectonized rocks, possibly accreted from the guyot or an already subducted seamount. The wedge that is overlain by less deformed volcaniclastic island-arc rocks and sediments includes imbricated layers of Late Oligocene to Early Miocene reef and micritic limestones. This wedge, which develops against the leading flank of the guyot, tends to smooth its high-drag shape. A comparison between the 500-m-thick wedge of limestones that outcrops southeast of the guyot and the absence of such a wedge over the flat top of the guyot, although the top is overthrust by island-arc rocks and sediments, can be interpreted to suggest that the wedge moves in the subduction zone with the guyot and facilitates its subduction by streamlining

On the Three-dimensional Central Moment Lattice Boltzmann Method

A three-dimensional (3D) lattice Boltzmann method based on central moments is derived. Two main elements are the local attractors in the collision term and the source terms representing the effect of external and/or self-consistent internal forces. For suitable choices of the orthogonal moment basis for the three-dimensional, twenty seven velocity (D3Q27), and, its subset, fifteen velocity (D3Q15) lattice models, attractors are expressed in terms of factorization of lower order moments as suggested in an earlier work; the corresponding source terms are specified to correctly influence lower order hydrodynamic fields, while avoiding aliasing effects for higher order moments. These are achieved by successively matching the corresponding continuous and discrete central moments at various orders, with the final expressions written in terms of raw moments via a transformation based on the binomial theorem. Furthermore, to alleviate the discrete effects with the source terms, they are treated to be temporally semi-implicit and second-order, with the implicitness subsequently removed by means of a transformation. As a result, the approach is frame-invariant by construction and its emergent dynamics describing fully 3D fluid motion in the presence of force fields is Galilean invariant. Numerical experiments for a set of benchmark problems demonstrate its accuracy.Comment: 55 pages, 8 figure

Input variable selection in time-critical knowledge integration applications: A review, analysis, and recommendation paper

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Advanced Engineering Informatics. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.The purpose of this research is twofold: first, to undertake a thorough appraisal of existing Input Variable Selection (IVS) methods within the context of time-critical and computation resource-limited dimensionality reduction problems; second, to demonstrate improvements to, and the application of, a recently proposed time-critical sensitivity analysis method called EventTracker to an environment science industrial use-case, i.e., sub-surface drilling. Producing time-critical accurate knowledge about the state of a system (effect) under computational and data acquisition (cause) constraints is a major challenge, especially if the knowledge required is critical to the system operation where the safety of operators or integrity of costly equipment is at stake. Understanding and interpreting, a chain of interrelated events, predicted or unpredicted, that may or may not result in a specific state of the system, is the core challenge of this research. The main objective is then to identify which set of input data signals has a significant impact on the set of system state information (i.e. output). Through a cause-effect analysis technique, the proposed technique supports the filtering of unsolicited data that can otherwise clog up the communication and computational capabilities of a standard supervisory control and data acquisition system. The paper analyzes the performance of input variable selection techniques from a series of perspectives. It then expands the categorization and assessment of sensitivity analysis methods in a structured framework that takes into account the relationship between inputs and outputs, the nature of their time series, and the computational effort required. The outcome of this analysis is that established methods have a limited suitability for use by time-critical variable selection applications. By way of a geological drilling monitoring scenario, the suitability of the proposed EventTracker Sensitivity Analysis method for use in high volume and time critical input variable selection problems is demonstrated.E