Із зали засідань Президії НАН України

На черговому засіданні Президії НАН України 13 червня 2012 року члени Президії НАН України та запрошені заслухали такі питання: Спільне засідання Президії Національної академії наук України та Колегії Державної служби статистики України «Про затвердження проекту програми перепису населення» (доповідачі — заступник голови Держстату України Н.С. Власенко та академік НАН України Е.М. Лібанова); Про наукові підходи до вирішення проблеми збереження та відтворення лісів України (доповідач — член-кореспондент НААН України В.П. Ткач); Про нагородження відзнаками НАН України та Почесними грамотами НАН України і Центрального комітету профспілки працівників НАН України (доповідач — академік НАН України В.Ф. Мачулін); Кадрові та поточні питання

Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

Potential evaporation (PET) is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1) evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2) tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles. <br><br> A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level) between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts), the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e.g. Orange, Murray and Zambezi). Furthermore, the Penman-Monteith equation has a high data demand and the equation is sensitive to input data inaccuracy. Therefore, we recommend the re-calibrated form of the Hargreaves equation which globally gave reference PET values comparable to CRU derived values for multiple climate conditions. <br><br> The resulting gridded daily PET time series provide a new reference dataset that can be used for future hydrological impact assessments in further research, or more specifically, for the statistical downscaling of daily PET derived from raw GCM data. The dataset can be downloaded from <a href ="http://opendap.deltares.nl/thredds/dodsC/opendap/deltares/FEWS-IPCC"target="_blank">http://opendap.deltares.nl/thredds/dodsC/opendap/deltares/FEWS-IPCC</a>

Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: a test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

The current generation of large-scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component. Large-scale groundwater models, involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries, are still rare mainly due to a lack of hydro-geological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global datasets that are readily available. As the test-bed, we use the combined Rhine-Meuse basin that contains groundwater head data used to verify the model output. We start by building a distributed land surface model (30 arc-second resolution) to estimate groundwater recharge and river discharge. Subsequently, a MODFLOW transient groundwater model is built and forced by the recharge and surface water levels calculated by the land surface model. Results are promising despite the fact that we still use an offline procedure to couple the land surface and MODFLOW groundwater models (i.e. the simulations of both models are separately performed). The simulated river discharges compare well to the observations. Moreover, based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run several groundwater model scenarios with various hydro-geological parameter settings, we observe that the model can reasonably well reproduce the observed groundwater head time series. However, we note that there are still some limitations in the current approach, specifically because the offline-coupling technique simplifies the dynamic feedbacks between surface water levels and groundwater heads, and between soil moisture states and groundwater heads. Also the current sensitivity analysis ignores the uncertainty of the land surface model output. Despite these limitations, we argue that the results of the current model show a promise for large-scale groundwater modeling practices, including for data-poor environments and at the global scale

Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large. <br><br> Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23, Glucose Homeostasis, and Incident Diabetes:Findings of 2 Cohort Studies

CONTEXT: The phosphate-regulating hormone fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) has been linked to deregulations in glucose metabolism, but its role is insufficiently understood.OBJECTIVE: This study investigates potential crosstalk between FGF23 and glucose homeostasis.METHODS: First, we investigated the effect of glucose loading on plasma C-terminal FGF23 levels and its temporal relationship with changes in plasma phosphate in 45 overweight (body mass index [BMI] 25-30) individuals using time-lag analyses. Second, we studied cross-sectional associations of plasma C-terminal FGF23 levels with glucose homeostasis using multivariable linear regression in a population-based cohort. We also investigated associations of FGF23 with incident diabetes and obesity (BMI &gt; 30) in individuals without diabetes or obesity at baseline, respectively, using multivariable Cox regression analyses. Finally, we explored whether the association between FGF23 and diabetes depends on BMI.RESULTS: After glucose loading, changes in FGF23 preceded changes in plasma phosphate (Ptime-lag = .04). In the population-based cohort (N = 5482; mean age 52 years, 52% women, median FGF23 69 RU/mL), FGF23 was associated with plasma glucose (β = .13 [.03-.23]; P = .01), insulin (β = .10 [.03-.17]; P &lt; .001), and proinsulin (β = .06 [0.02-0.10]; P = .01) at baseline. On longitudinal analyses, a higher baseline FGF23 was independently associated with development of diabetes (199 events [4%]; fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.66 [95% CI, 1.06-2.60]; P = .03) and development of obesity (241 events [6%]; fully adjusted HR 1.84 [95% CI, 1.34-2.50]; P &lt; .001). The association between FGF23 and incident diabetes lost significance after additional adjustment for BMI.CONCLUSION: Glucose loading has phosphate-independent effects on FGF23 and, vice versa, FGF23 is associated with glucose, insulin and proinsulin levels, and obesity. These findings suggest crosstalk between FGF23 and glucose homeostasis, which may promote susceptibility to incident diabetes.</p

Elevated cerebrospinal fluid glucose levels and diabetes mellitus are associated with activation of the neurotoxic polyol pathway

Aims/hypothesis: During hyperglycaemia, some glucose bypasses glycolysis and is metabolised via the potentially neurotoxic polyol pathway, in which glucose is metabolised to sorbitol and fructose. Increased polyol concentrations have been demonstrated in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of neurological patients with and without diabetes mellitus. However, polyol levels in patients without evident neurological abnormalities have not been investigated so far. The aim of this study was to determine CSF polyol concentrations in patients without major neurological disease with normal or elevated CSF glucose concentrations. Methods: This observational cohort study used CSF and plasma analyses, as well as clinical data, from 30 participants of the Anaesthetic Biobank of Cerebrospinal Fluid study. Biomaterial was collected from adult patients scheduled for elective surgery under spinal anaesthesia. CSF polyol concentrations were measured by GC/flame ionisation detector in ten patients with normal CSF glucose levels (group 1), ten patients with elevated CSF glucose levels (group 2) and ten patients with elevated CSF glucose levels and type 2 diabetes (group 3). We compared the concentrations of plasma glucose, CSF glucose, sorbitol and fructose, and CSF polyol/glucose ratios between the three groups, and determined the correlation between plasma glucose levels and CSF glucose, sorbitol and fructose levels. Results: Groups 2 and 3 had significantly higher CSF fructose levels compared with group 1 (p=0.036 and p<0.001, respectively). Group 3 showed significant differences compared with groups 1 and 2 for CSF sorbitol (p<0.001 and 0.036, respectively). Moreover, patients with diabetes had a significantly higher CSF sorbitol/glucose ratio compared with patients without diabetes. There was a strong positive correlation between plasma glucose and CSF glucose, sorbitol and fructose. Finally, age, sex, CSF/plasma albumin ratio and preoperative cognitive function scores were significantly correlated with plasma glucose and CSF glucose, sorbitol and fructose levels. Conclusions/interpretation: Hyperglycaemia causes a proportional increase in polyol concentrations in CSF of patients without major neurological disease. Furthermore, this study provides the first indication of upregulation of the cerebral polyol pathway in patients with diabetes without evident neurological abnormalities. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Changes in surface hydrology, soil moisture and gross primary production in the Amazon during the 2015/2016 El Niño

The 2015/2016 El Niño event caused severe changes in precipitation across the tropics. This impacted surface hydrology, such as river run-off and soil moisture availability, thereby triggering reductions in gross primary production (GPP). Many biosphere models lack the detailed hydrological component required to accurately quantify anomalies in surface hydrology and GPP during droughts in tropical regions. Here, we take the novel approach of coupling the biosphere model SiBCASA with the advanced hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB to attempt such a quantification across the Amazon basin during the drought in 2015/2016. We calculate 30-40% reduced river discharge in the Amazon starting in October 2015, lagging behind the precipitation anomaly by approximately one month and in good agreement with river gauge observations. Soil moisture shows distinctly asymmetrical spatial anomalies with large reductions across the north-eastern part of the basin, which persisted into the following dry season. This added to drought stress in vegetation, already present owing to vapour pressure deficits at the leaf, resulting in a loss of GPP of 0.95 (0.69 to 1.20) PgC between October 2015 and March 2016 compared with the 2007-2014 average. Only 11% (10-12%) of the reduction in GPP was found in the (wetter) north-western part of the basin, whereas the north-eastern and southern regions were affected more strongly, with 56% (54-56%) and 33% (31-33%) of the total, respectively. Uncertainty on this anomaly mostly reflects the unknown rooting depths of vegetation.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.</p

New High Field State of Flux Line Lattice in Unconventional Superconductor CeCoIn_5

Ultrasound velocity measurements of the unconventional superconductor CeCoIn_5 with extremely large Pauli paramagnetic susceptibility reveal an unusual structural transformation of the flux line lattice (FLL) in the vicinity of the upper critical field. The transition field coincides with that at which heat capacity measurements reveal a second order phase transition. The lowering of the sound velocity at the transition is consistent with the collapse of the FLL tilt modulus and a crossover to quasi two-dimensional FLL pinning. These results provide a strong evidence that the high field state is the Fulde-Ferrel-Larkin-Ovchinikov phase, in which the order parameter is spatially modulated and has planar nodes aligned perpendicular to the vortices.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

A Global Constraint for a Tractable Class of Temporal Optimization Problems

International audienceThis paper is originally motivated by an application where the objective is to generate a video summary, built using intervals extracted from a video source. In this application, the constraints used to select the relevant pieces of intervals are based on Allen's algebra. The best state-of-the-art results are obtained with a small set of ad hoc solution techniques, each specific to one combination of the 13 Allen's relations. Such techniques require some expertise in Constraint Programming. This is a critical issue for video specialists. In this paper, we design a generic constraint, dedicated to a class of temporal problems that covers this case study, among others. ExistAllen takes as arguments a vector of tasks, a set of disjoint intervals and any of the 2 13 combinations of Allen's relations. ExistAllen holds if and only if the tasks are ordered according to their indexes and for any task at least one relation is satisfied , between the task and at least one interval. We design a propagator that achieves bound-consistency in O(n + m), where n is the number of tasks and m the number of intervals. This propagator is suited to any combination of Allen's relations, without any specific tuning. Therefore, using our framework does not require a strong expertise in Constraint Programming. The experiments, performed on real data, confirm the relevance of our approach

Flux pinning in (1111) iron-pnictide superconducting crystals

Local magnetic measurements are used to quantitatively characterize heterogeneity and flux line pinning in PrFeAsO_1-y and NdFeAs(O,F) superconducting single crystals. In spite of spatial fluctuations of the critical current density on the macroscopic scale, it is shown that the major contribution comes from collective pinning of vortex lines by microscopic defects by the mean-free path fluctuation mechanism. The defect density extracted from experiment corresponds to the dopant atom density, which means that dopant atoms play an important role both in vortex pinning and in quasiparticle scattering. In the studied underdoped PrFeAsO_1-y and NdFeAs(O,F) crystals, there is a background of strong pinning, which we attribute to spatial variations of the dopant atom density on the scale of a few dozen to one hundred nm. These variations do not go beyond 5% - we therefore do not find any evidence for coexistence of the superconducting and the antiferromagnetic phase. The critical current density in sub-T fields is characterized by the presence of a peak effect, the location of which in the (B,T)-plane is consistent with an order-disorder transition of the vortex lattice.Comment: 12 pages, submitted to Phys Rev.