Systems Science for Caribbean Health: the development and piloting of a model for guiding policy on diabetes in the Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is highly prevalent in the Caribbean, associated with a high morbidity and mortality and is a recognised threat to economic and social development. Heads of Government in the Caribbean Community came together in 2007 and declared their commitment to reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, by calling for a multi-sectoral, systemic response. To facilitate the development of effective policies, policymakers are being engaged in the development and use of a system dynamics (SD) model of diabetes for Caribbean countries. METHODS: Previous work on a diabetes SD model from the United States of America (USA) is being adapted to a local context for three countries in the region using input from stakeholders, a review of existing qualitative and quantitative data, and collection of new qualitative data. Three country models will be developed using one-on-one stakeholder engagement and iterative revision. An inter-country model will also be developed following a model-building workshop. Models will be compared to each other and to the USA model. The inter-country model will be used to simulate policies identified as priorities by stakeholders and to develop targets for prevention and control. The model and model-building process will be evaluated by stakeholders and a manual developed for use in other high-burden developing regions. DISCUSSION: SD has been applied with success for health policy development in high-income country settings. The utility of SD in developing countries as an aid to policy decision-making related to NCDs has not been tested. This study represents the first of its kind.The project is funded by a health initiatives development grant sponsored by the DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC. Reference: MR/N005384/1

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Nut production in Bertholletia excelsa across a logged forest mosaic: implications for multiple forest use

Although many examples of multiple-use forest management may be found in tropical smallholder systems, few studies provide empirical support for the integration of selective timber harvesting with non-timber forest product (NTFP) extraction. Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa, Lecythidaceae) is one of the world’s most economically-important NTFP species extracted almost entirely from natural forests across the Amazon Basin. An obligate out-crosser, Brazil nut flowers are pollinated by large-bodied bees, a process resulting in a hard round fruit that takes up to 14 months to mature. As many smallholders turn to the financial security provided by timber, Brazil nut fruits are increasingly being harvested in logged forests. We tested the influence of tree and stand-level covariates (distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity) on total nut production at the individual tree level in five recently logged Brazil nut concessions covering about 4000 ha of forest in Madre de Dios, Peru. Our field team accompanied Brazil nut harvesters during the traditional harvest period (January-April 2012 and January-April 2013) in order to collect data on fruit production. Three hundred and ninety-nine (approximately 80%) of the 499 trees included in this study were at least 100 m from the nearest cut stump, suggesting that concessionaires avoid logging near adult Brazil nut trees. Yet even for those trees on the edge of logging gaps, distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity did not have a statistically significant influence on Brazil nut production at the applied logging intensities (typically 1–2 timber trees removed per ha). In one concession where at least 4 trees ha-1 were removed, however, the logging intensity covariate resulted in a marginally significant (0.09) P value, highlighting a potential risk for a drop in nut production at higher intensities. While we do not suggest that logging activities should be completely avoided in Brazil nut rich forests, when a buffer zone cannot be observed, low logging intensities should be implemented. The sustainability of this integrated management system will ultimately depend on a complex series of socioeconomic and ecological interactions. Yet we submit that our study provides an important initial step in understanding the compatibility of timber harvesting with a high value NTFP, potentially allowing for diversification of forest use strategies in Amazonian Perù

Understanding the links between human health, ecosystem health, and food systems in Small Island Developing States using stakeholder-informed causal loop diagrams

This is the final version. Available on open access from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record. Data Availability: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.Globalized food systems are a major driver of climate change, biodiversity loss, environmental degradation, and the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity in society. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are particularly sensitive to the negative effects of rapid environmental change, with many also exhibiting a heavy reliance on food imports and high burdens of nutrition-related disease, resulting in calls to (re)localize their food systems. Such a transition represents a complex challenge, with adaptation interventions in one part of the food system contingent on the success of interventions in other parts. To help address this challenge, we used group model-building techniques from the science of system dynamics to engage food system stakeholders in Caribbean and Pacific SIDS. Our aim was to understand the drivers of unhealthy and unsustainable food systems in SIDS, and the potential role that increased local food production could play in transformative adaptation. We present two causal loop diagrams (CLDs) considered helpful in designing resilience-enhancing interventions in local food systems. These CLDs represent 'dynamic hypotheses' and provide starting points that can be adapted to local contexts for identifying food system factors, understanding the interactions between them, and co-creating and implementing adaptation interventions, particularly in SIDS. The results can help guide understanding of complexity, assist in the co-creation of interventions, and reduce the risk of maladaptive consequences.UK Research and Innovatio

Lifestyle and diet in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes in Vietnam: a hospital-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Lifestyle and diet are important determinants of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Their impact on T2D can be evaluated using clinical and epidemiological approaches. Randomised controlled trials are the most rigorous design but expensive to conduct, whereas prospective cohort studies are time-consuming and less powerful for populations with a low incidence of the disease. Case-control studies are considered appropriate in resource-limited settings. A hospital-based case-control study protocol has been developed to investigate the role of lifestyle and dietary factors in T2D aetiology for adults in Vietnam. METHODS: A total of 1100 patients aged 40-65 years (550 T2D cases and 550 controls) will be recruited from a tertiary hospital in Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam. Cases and controls will be frequency-matched on age (±3 years), gender, and residential location. T2D will be diagnosed according to the 2006 World Health Organisation criteria. Habitual physical activity will be assessed by the Vietnamese version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form. Food and beverage consumption will be ascertained using a Validated Food Frequency Questionnaire, specifically developed for the Vietnamese population. Information on demographic and other personal characteristics will be collected, together with anthropometric and blood pressure measurements. Descriptive statistics and unconditional logistic regression analyses will be performed to examine factors associated with the T2D prevalence. DISCUSSION: The proposed study will elucidate the role of lifestyle and diet in T2D prevalence among Vietnamese adults. Findings concerning pertinent factors will provide epidemiological evidence for the development of focused interventions, and contribute to the formulation of national policies to prevent and control T2D in Vietnam

Evaluation of the clinical and cost effectiveness of intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCD): A multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Configuring high quality care for the rapidly increasing number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major challenge worldwide for both providers and commissioners. In the UK, about two thirds of people with T2D are managed entirely in primary care, with wide variation in management strategies and achievement of targets. Pay for performance, introduced in 2004, initially resulted in improvements but disparities exist in ethnic minorities and the improvements are levelling off. Community based, intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCDs) were considered one solution and are functioning across the UK. However, there is no randomised trial evidence for the effectiveness of such clinics. Trial Design, Methods and Findings This is a cluster-randomised trial, involving 3 primary care trusts, with 49 general practices randomised to usual care (n = 25) or intervention (ICCDs; n = 24). All eligible adult patients with T2D were invited; 1997 were recruited and 1280 followed-up after 18-months intervention. Primary outcome: achievement of all three of the NICE targets [(HbA1c≤7.0%/53 mmol/mol; Blood Pressure <140/80 mmHg; cholesterol <154 mg/dl (4 mmol/l)]. Primary outcome was achieved in 14.3% in the intervention arm vs. 9.3% in the control arm (p = 0.059 after adjustment for covariates). The odds ratio (95% CI) for achieving primary outcome in the intervention group was 1.56 (0.98, 2.49). Primary care and community clinic costs were significantly higher in the intervention group, but there were no significant differences in hospital costs or overall healthcare costs. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of +£7,778 per QALY gained, indicated ICCD was marginally more expensive at producing health gain. Conclusions Intermediate care clinics can contribute to improving target achievement in patients with diabetes. Further work is needed to investigate the optimal scale and organisational structure of ICCD services and whether, over time, their role may change as skill levels in primary care increase. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00945204; National Research Register (NRR) M0014178167.National Institute of Health Research Project number: SDO/110/2005. Initial service for support costs was provided by Department of health.NHS Leicester City, Thames Valley Diabetes Research Network (TVDRN), West Midlands South Comprehensive Local Research Network (CLRN), Primary Care Research Network (PCRN) and DIERT charity provided additional support for the successful completion of the study

Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge