Constraints on the age and dilution of Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics biomass burning plumes from the natural radionuclide tracer 210Pb

During the NASA Global Troposphere Experiment Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics (PEM-Tropics) airborne sampling campaign we found unexpectedly high concentrations of aerosol-associated 210Pb throughout the free troposphere over the South Pacific. Because of the remoteness of the study region, we expected specific activities to be generally less than 35 μBq m−3 but found an average in the free troposphere of 107 μBq m−3. This average was elevated by a large number of very active (up to 405 μBq m−3) samples that were associated with biomass burning plumes encountered on nearly every PEM-Tropics flight in the southern hemisphere. We use a simple aging and dilution model, which assumes that 222Rn and primary combustion products are pumped into the free troposphere in wet convective systems over fire regions (most likely in Africa), to explain the elevated 210Pb activities. This model reproduces the observed 210Pb activities very well, and predicts the ratios of four hydrocarbon species (emitted by combustion) to CO to better than 20% in most cases. Plume ages calculated by the model depend strongly on the assumed 222Rn activities in the initial plume, but using values plausible for continental boundary layer air yields ages that are consistent with travel times from Africa to the South Pacific calculated with a back trajectory model. The model also shows that despite being easily recognized through the large enhancements of biomass burning tracers, these plumes must have entrained large fractions of the surrounding ambient air during transport

A 110,000-year History of Change in Continental Biogenic Emissions and Related Atmospheric Circulation Inferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Ice Core

The 110,000-year record of ammonium concentrations from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core provides the basis for an analysis of terrestrial biological production and atmospheric circulation patterns involved in the transport of biologically produced ammonium to the Greenland atmosphere. The directly measured concentration series was selected for analysis, rather than that of estimated ammonium flux, after a detailed analysis of the relationship among ice core glaciochemical concentrations and a high-resolution simultaneous record of snow accumulation from the GISP2 core. Analysis of the ammonium concentration series shows that maxima in background levels of ammonium in the Greenland atmosphere are strongly related to and synchronous with summer forcing associated with the precessional cycle of insolation. Minima in background levels, on the other hand, are delayed relative to minima in summer insolation at those times when ice volume is significant. The duration of these delays are similar in magnitude (≈6000 years) to other paleoclimatic responses to changes in ice volume. Decadal and centennial scale variation about background levels of ammonium concentration exhibit two modes of behavior when compared to a record of polar atmospheric circulation intensity. During warmer periods ammonium transport to Greenland is similar to present patterns. Under coldest conditions the low levels of ammonium transported to Greenland are the result of extreme southerly excursions of the predominantly zonal polar circulation. The rapid transitions (≈200 years) between these two climatic conditions appear to be associated with a critical volume or extent of the continental ice sheets

Paleoclimatic Variability Inferred from the Spectral Analysis of Greenland and Antarctic Ice-Core Data

Paleoclimate variations occur at various time scales, between a few centuries for the Heinrich events and several hundreds of millenia for the glacial to interglacial variations. The recent ice cores from Greenland (Greenland Ice Core Project and Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) and Antarctica (Vostok) span at least one glacial oscillation and provide many opportunities to investigate climate variations with a very fine resolution. The joint study of cores from both hemispheres allows us to distinguish between the sources of variability and helps to propose mechanisms of variations for the different time scales involved. The climate proxies we analyze are inferred from δ18O and δD for temperature and chemical species (such as calcium) for the joint behavior of the major ions in the atmosphere, which yield an estimate of the polar circulation index. Those data provide time series of climatic variables from which we extract the information on the dynamics of the underlying system. We used several independent spectral analysis techniques, to reduce the possibility of spurious results. Those methods encompass the multitaper spectral analysis, singular-spectrum analysis, maximum entropy method, principal component analysis, minimum bias spectral estimates, and digital filter reconstructions. Our results show some differences between the two hemispheres in the slow variability associated with the astronomical forcing. Common features found in the three ice-core records occur on shorter periods, between 1 and 7 kyr. The Holocene also shows recurrent common patterns between Greenland and Antarctica. We propose and discuss mechanisms to explain such behavior

The effect of spatial and temporal accumulation rate variability in west Antarctica on soluble ion deposition

Annually‐dated snowpit and ice core records from two areas of West Antarctica are used to investigate spatial accumulation patterns and to evaluate temporal accumulation rate/glaciochemical concentration and flux relationships. Mean accumulation rate gradients in Marie Byrd Land (11–23 gcm−2yr−1 over 150 km, decreasing to the south) and Siple Dome (10–18 gcm−2yr−1 over 60 km, decreasing to the south) are consistent for at least the last several decades, and demonstrate the influence of the offshore quasi‐permanent Amundsen Sea low pressure system on moisture flux into the region. Local and regional‐scale topography in both regions appears to affect orographic lifting, air mass trajectories, and accumulation distribution. Linear regression of mean annual soluble ion concentration and flux data vs. accumulation rates in both regions indicates that 1) concentrations are independent of and thus not a rescaling of accumulation rate time‐series, and 2) chemical flux to the ice sheet surface is mainly via wet deposition, and changes in atmospheric concentration play a significant role. We therefore suggest that, in the absence of detailed air/snow transfer models, ice core chemical concentration and not flux time‐series provide a better estimate of past aerosol loading in West Antarctica

Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega‐Eruption ∼71,000 Years Ago

An ∼6‐year long period of volcanic sulfate recorded in the GISP2 ice core about 71,100 ± 5000 years ago may provide detailed information on the atmospheric and climatic impact of the Toba mega‐eruption. Deposition of these aerosols occur at the beginning of an ∼1000‐year long stadial event, but not immediately before the longer glacial period beginning ∼67,500 years ago. Total stratospheric loading estimates over this ∼6‐year period range from 2200 to 4400 Mt of H2SO4 aerosols. The range in values is given to compensate for uncertainties in aerosol transport. Magnitude and longevity of the atmospheric loading may have led directly to enhanced cooling during the initial two centuries of this ∼1000‐year cooling event

Sea Level Pressure Variability in the Amundsen Sea Region Inferred from a West Antarctic Glaciochemical Record

Using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical operational analyses, sea ice extent records, and station pressure data, we investigate the influence of sea level pressure variability in the Amundsen Sea region on a West Antarctic (Siple Dome) glaciochemical record. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the high-resolution Siple Dome multivariate ice core chemical time series record (SDEOF1) documents lower tropospheric transport of sea-salt aerosols to the site. During 1985–1994 the SDEOF1 record of high (low) aerosol transport corresponds to anomalously low (high) sea level pressure (SLP) in the Amundsen Sea region. Spatial correlation patterns between ECMWF monthly SLP fields and the annual SDEOF1 record suggest that a majority of sea-salt aerosol is transported to Siple Dome during spring (September, October, and November). Analysis of zonal and meridional wind fields supports the SLP/SDEOF1 correlation and suggests the SDEOF1 record is sensitive to changes in regional circulation strength. No relationship is found between sea ice extent and the SDEOF1 record for the period 1973–1994. To investigate the SDEOF1 record prior to ECMWF coverage, a spring transpolar index (STPI) is created, using normalized SLP records from the New Zealand and South America/Antarctic Peninsula sectors, and is significantly correlated (at least 95% c.l.) with the SDEOF1 record on an annual (r = 0.32, p\u3c 0.001) and interannual (3 years; r = 0.51, p \u3c 0.001) basis. Dominant periodicities (3.3 and 7.1 years) in the annual SDEOF1 record (1890–1994 A.D.) suggest that a portion of the recorded interannual variability may be related tropical/extratropical ENSO teleconnections. Changes in the periodic structure of the full (850–1994 A.D.) Siple Dome record suggests a shift in SLP forcing during the Little Ice Age (∼1400–1900 A.D.) interval

Bayesian Life Test Planning for the Log-Location-Scale Family of Distributions

This paper describes Bayesian methods for life test planning with censored data from a log-location-scale distribution, when prior information of the distribution parameters is available. We use a Bayesian criterion based on the estimation precision of a distribution quantile. A large sample normal approximation gives a simplified, easy-tointerpret, yet valid approach to this planning problem, where in general no closed form solutions are available. To illustrate this approach, we present numerical investigations using the Weibull distribution with Type II censoring. We also assess the effects of prior distribution choice. A simulation approach of the same Bayesian problem is also presented as a tool for visualization and validation. The validation results generally are consistent with those from the large sample approximation approach

Non-invasive Motor Cortex Neuromodulation Reduces Secondary Hyperalgesia and Enhances Activation of the Descending Pain Modulatory Network

Central sensitization is a driving mechanism in many chronic pain patients, and manifests as hyperalgesia and allodynia beyond any apparent injury. Recent studies have demonstrated analgesic effects of motor cortex (M1) stimulation in several chronic pain disorders, yet its neural mechanisms remain uncertain. We evaluated whether anodal M1 transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) would mitigate central sensitization as measured by indices of secondary hyperalgesia. We used a capsaicin-heat pain model to elicit secondary mechanical hyperalgesia in 27 healthy subjects. In an assessor and subject-blind randomized, sham-controlled, crossover trial, anodal M1 tDCS decreased the intensity of pinprick hyperalgesia more than cathodal or sham tDCS. To elucidate the mechanism driving analgesia, subjects underwent fMRI of painful mechanical stimuli prior to and following induction of the pain model, after receiving M1 tDCS. We hypothesized that anodal M1 tDCS would enhance engagement of a descending pain modulatory (DPM) network in response to mechanical stimuli. Anodal tDCS normalized the effects of central sensitization on neurophysiological responses to mechanical pain in the medial prefrontal cortex, pregenual anterior cingulate cortex, and periaqueductal gray, important regions in the DPM network. Taken together, these results provide support for the hypothesis that anodal M1-tDCS reduces central sensitization-induced hyperalgesia through the DPM network in humans