Producing valid statistics when legislation, culture, and medical practices differ for births at or before the threshold of survival: Report of a European workshop

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Cross-Country Individual Participant Analysis of 4.1 Million Singleton Births in 5 Countries with Very High Human Development Index...

Background: Preterm birth is the most common single cause of perinatal and infant mortality, affecting 15 million infants worldwide each year with global rates increasing. Understanding of risk factors remains poor, and preventive interventions have only limited benefit. Large differences exist in preterm birth rates across high income countries. We hypothesized that understanding the basis for these wide variations could lead to interventions that reduce preterm birth incidence in countries with high rates. We thus sought to assess the contributions of known risk factors for both spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm birth in selected high income countries, estimating also the potential impact of successful interventions due to advances in research, policy and public health, or clinical practice. Methods: We analyzed individual patient-level data on 4.1 million singleton pregnancies from four countries with very high human development index (Czech Republic, New Zealand, Slovenia, Sweden) and one comparator U.S. state (California) to determine the specific contribution (adjusting for confounding effects) of 21 factors. Both individual and population-attributable preterm birth risks were determined, as were contributors to cross-country differences. We also assessed the ability to predict preterm birth given various sets of known risk factors. Findings: Previous preterm birth and preeclampsia were the strongest individual risk factors of preterm birth in all datasets, with odds ratios of 4.6–6.0 and 2.8–5.7, respectively, for individual women having those characteristics. In contrast, on a population basis, nulliparity and male sex were the two risk factors with the highest impact on preterm birth rates, accounting for 25–50% and 11–16% of excess population attributable risk, respectively (p < 0.001). The importance of nulliparity and male sex on population attributable risk was driven by high prevalence despite low odds ratios for individual women. More than 65% of the total aggregated risk of preterm birth within each country lacks a plausible biologic explanation, and 63% of difference between countries cannot be explained with known factors; thus, research is necessary to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of preterm birth and, hence, therapeutic intervention. Surprisingly, variation in prevalence of known risk factors accounted for less than 35% of the difference in preterm birth rates between countries. Known risk factors had an area under the curve of less than 0.7 in ROC analysis of preterm birth prediction within countries. These data suggest that other influences, as yet unidentified, are involved in preterm birth. Further research into biological mechanisms is warranted. Conclusions: We have quantified the causes of variation in preterm birth rates among countries with very high human development index. The paucity of explicit and currently identified factors amenable to intervention illustrates the limited impact of changes possible through current clinical practice and policy interventions. Our research highlights the urgent need for research into underlying biological causes of preterm birth, which alone are likely to lead to innovative and efficacious interventions

Record linkage to obtain birth outcomes for the evaluation of screening biomarkers in pregnancy: a feasibility study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Linking population health data to pathology data is a new approach for the evaluation of predictive tests that is potentially more efficient, feasible and efficacious than current methods. Studies evaluating the use of first trimester maternal serum levels as predictors of complications in pregnancy have mostly relied on resource intensive methods such as prospective data collection or retrospective chart review. The aim of this pilot study is to demonstrate that record-linkage between a pathology database and routinely collected population health data sets provides follow-up on patient outcomes that is as effective as more traditional and resource-intensive methods. As a specific example, we evaluate maternal serum levels of PAPP-A and free <it>β</it>-hCG as predictors of adverse pregnancy outcomes, and compare our results with those of prospective studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Maternal serum levels of PAPP-A and free <it>β</it>-hCG for 1882 women randomly selected from a pathology database in New South Wales (NSW) were linked to routinely collected birth and hospital databases. Crude relative risks were calculated to investigate the association between low levels (multiples of the median ≤ 5^thpercentile) of PAPP-A or free <it>β</it>-hCG and the outcomes of preterm delivery (<37 weeks), small for gestational age (<10^thpercentile), fetal loss and stillbirth.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using only full name, sex and date of birth for record linkage, pregnancy outcomes were available for 1681 (89.3%) of women included in the study. Low levels of PAPP-A had a stronger association with adverse pregnancy outcomes than a low level of free <it>β</it>-hCG which is consistent with results in published studies. The relative risk of having a preterm birth with a low maternal serum PAPP-A level was 3.44 (95% CI 1.96–6.10) and a low free <it>β</it>-hCG level was 1.31 (95% CI 0.55–6.16).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study provides data to support the use of record linkage for outcome ascertainment in studies evaluating predictive tests. Linkage proportions are likely to increase if more personal identifiers are available. This method of follow-up is a cost-efficient technique and can now be applied to a larger cohort of women.</p

Passive cation permeability of turtle colon: Evidence for a negative interaction between intracellular sodium and apical sodium permeability

The role of intracellular sodium in the regulation of apical sodium permeability was investigated in an electrically “tight” epithelium, the turtle colon. In the presence of low mucosal sodium (3 mM) and serosal ouabain, an inhibitor of the basolateral sodium pump, the apical membrane retained a substantial amiloride-sensitive, sodium conductance and the basolateral membrane exhibited a barium-sensitive potassium conductance in parallel with a significant sodium (and lithium) conductance. In the presence of a high mucosal sodium concentration (114 mM), however, inhibition of active sodium absorption by ouabain led to a disappearance of the amiloride-sensitive, transepithelial conductance that was due, at least in part, to a virtual abolition of the apical sodium permeability. Two lines of evidence indicate that this permeability decrease was dependent upon an increase in intracellular sodium content. First, raising the mucosal sodium concentration from 3–114 mM in the presence of ouabain reversibly inhibited the amiloride-sensitive conductance. The time course of the decline in conductance paralleled the apparent intracellular accumulation of sodium in exchange for potassium, which was monitored as a transient deflection in the amiloride-sensitive, short-circuit current. Second, the inhibitory effect of mucosal sodium-addition was markedly attenuated by serosal barium, which prevented the accumulation of sodium by blocking the electrically coupled, basolateral potassium exit. These results support the notion of a “negative feedback” effect of intracellular sodium on the apical sodium permeability.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47451/1/424_2004_Article_BF00583286.pd

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern dominate in Lahore, Pakistan in April 2021

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to expand globally, with case numbers rising in many areas of the world, including the Indian sub-continent. Pakistan has one of the world’s largest populations, of over 200 million people and is experiencing a severe third wave of infections caused by SARS-CoV-2 that began in March 2021. In Pakistan, during the third wave until now only 12 SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been collected and among these nine are from Islamabad. This highlights the need for more genome sequencing to allow surveillance of variants in circulation. In fact, more genomes are available among travellers with a travel history from Pakistan, than from within the country itself. We thus aimed to provide a snapshot assessment of circulating lineages in Lahore and surrounding areas with a combined population of 11.1 million. Within a week of April 2021, 102 samples were sequenced. The samples were randomly collected from two hospitals with a diagnostic PCR cutoff value of less than 25 cycles. Analysis of the lineages shows that the Alpha variant of concern (first identified in the UK) dominates, accounting for 97.9 % (97/99) of cases, with the Beta variant of concern (first identified in South Africa) accounting for 2.0 % (2/99) of cases. No other lineages were observed. In depth analysis of the Alpha lineages indicated multiple separate introductions and subsequent establishment within the region. Eight samples were identical to genomes observed in Europe (seven UK, one Switzerland), indicating recent transmission. Genomes of other samples show evidence that these have evolved, indicating sustained transmission over a period of time either within Pakistan or other countries with low-density genome sequencing. Vaccines remain effective against Alpha, however, the low level of Beta against which some vaccines are less effective demonstrates the requirement for continued prospective genomic surveillance

Serum screening with Down's syndrome markers to predict pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age: Systematic review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reliable antenatal identification of pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age is crucial to judicious allocation of monitoring resources and use of preventative treatment with the prospect of improving maternal/perinatal outcome. The purpose of this systematic review was to determine the accuracy of five serum analytes used in Down's serum screening for prediction of pre-eclampsia and/or small for gestational age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data sources included Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, Medion (inception to February 2007), hand searching of relevant journals, reference list checking of included articles, contact with experts. Two reviewers independently selected the articles in which the accuracy of an analyte used in Downs's serum screening before the 25^thgestational week was associated with the occurrence of pre-eclampsia and/or small for gestational age without language restrictions. Two authors independently extracted data on study characteristics, quality and results.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five serum screening markers were evaluated. 44 studies, testing 169,637 pregnant women (4376 pre-eclampsia cases) and 86 studies, testing 382,005 women (20,339 fetal growth restriction cases) met the selection criteria. The results showed low predictive accuracy overall. For pre-eclampsia the best predictor was inhibin A>2.79MoM positive likelihood ratio 19.52 (8.33,45.79) and negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (0.13,0.68) (single study). For small for gestational age it was AFP>2.0MoM to predict birth weight < 10^thcentile with birth < 37 weeks positive likelihood ratio 27.96 (8.02,97.48) and negative likelihood ratio 0.78 (0.55,1.11) (single study). A potential clinical application using aspirin as a treatment is given as an example.</p> <p>There were methodological and reporting limitations in the included studies thus studies were heterogeneous giving pooled results with wide confidence intervals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Down's serum screening analytes have low predictive accuracy for pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age. They may be a useful means of risk assessment or of use in prediction when combined with other tests.</p

Using Robson's Ten‐Group Classification System for comparing caesarean section rates in Europe: an analysis of routine data from the Euro‐Peristat study

Objective Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS) creates clinically relevant sub‐groups for monitoring caesarean birth rates. This study assesses whether this classification can be derived from routine data in Europe and uses it to analyse national caesarean rates. Design Observational study using routine data. Setting Twenty‐seven EU member states plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK. Population All births at ≥22 weeks of gestational age in 2015. Methods National statistical offices and medical birth registers derived numbers of caesarean births in TGCS groups. Main outcome measures Overall caesarean rate, prevalence and caesarean rates in each of the TGCS groups. Results Of 31 countries, 18 were able to provide data on the TGCS groups, with UK data available only from Northern Ireland. Caesarean birth rates ranged from 16.1 to 56.9%. Countries providing TGCS data had lower caesarean rates than countries without data (25.8% versus 32.9%, P = 0.04). Countries with higher caesarean rates tended to have higher rates in all TGCS groups. Substantial heterogeneity was observed, however, especially for groups 5 (previous caesarean section), 6, 7 (nulliparous/multiparous breech) and 10 (singleton cephalic preterm). The differences in percentages of abnormal lies, group 9, illustrate potential misclassification arising from unstandardised definitions. Conclusions Although further validation of data quality is needed, using TGCS in Europe provides valuable comparator and baseline data for benchmarking and surveillance. Higher caesarean rates in countries unable to construct the TGCS suggest that effective routine information systems may be an indicator of a country's investment in implementing evidence‐based caesarean policies. Tweetable abstract Many European countries can provide Robson's Ten‐Group Classification to improve caesarean rate comparisons