The modelled impact of increases in physical activity: the effect of both increased survival and reduced incidence of disease

Physical activity can affect ‘need’ for healthcare both by reducing the incidence rate of some diseases and by increasing longevity (increasing the time lived at older ages when disease incidence is higher). However, it is common to consider only the first effect, which may overestimate any reduction in need for healthcare. We developed a hybrid micro-simulation lifetable model, which made allowance for both changes in longevity and risk of disease incidence, to estimate the effects of increases in physical activity (all adults meeting guidelines) on measures of healthcare need for diseases for which physical activity is protective. These were compared with estimates made using comparative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which assumed that longevity was fixed. Using the lifetable model, life expectancy increased by 95 days (95% uncertainty intervals: 68–126 days). Estimates of the healthcare need tended to decrease, but the magnitude of the decreases were noticeably smaller than those estimated using CRA methods (e.g. dementia: change in person- years, -0.6%, 95% uncertainty interval -3.7% to +1.6%; change in incident cases, -0.4%, -3.6% to +1.9%; change in person-years (CRA methods), -4.0%, -7.4% to -1.6%). The pattern of results persisted under different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. For most diseases for which physical activity is protective, increases in physical activity are associated with decreases in indices of healthcare need. However, disease onset may be delayed or time lived with disease may increase, such that the decreases in need may be relatively small and less than is sometimes expected.Oliver Mytton is supported by a Welcome Trust clinical doctoral fellowship (RG73907). Marko Tainio is funded by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), which receives funding from UK Clinical Research Collaboration. David Ogilvie and Jenna Panter are supported by the Medical Research Council [Unit Programme number MC_UU_12015/6]. Jenna Panter was supported by an NIHR post-doctoral fellowship [PDF-2012-05-157]. Linda Cobiac is supported by an NHMRC Sidney Sax Early Career Research Fellowship (Grant ID: 1036771). James Woodcock is funded by an MRC Population Health Scientist Fellowship

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p

Global Intraurban Intake Fractions for Primary Air Pollutants from Vehicles and Other Distributed Sources

We model intraurban intake fraction (iF) values for distributed ground-level emissions in all 3646 global cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants, encompassing a total population of 2.0 billion. For conserved primary pollutants, population-weighted median, mean, and interquartile range iF values are 26, 39, and 14-52 ppm, respectively, where 1 ppm signifies 1 g inhaled/t emitted. The global mean urban iF reported here is roughly twice as large as previous estimates for cities in the United States and Europe. Intake fractions vary among cities owing to differences in population size, population density, and meteorology. Sorting by size, population-weighted mean iF values are 65, 35, and 15 ppm, respectively, for cities with populations larger than 3, 0.6-3, and 0.1-0.6 million. The 20 worldwide megacities (each &gt;10 million people) have a population-weighted mean iF of 83 ppm. Mean intraurban iF values are greatest in Asia and lowest in land-rich high-income regions. Country-average iF values vary by a factor of 3 among the 10 nations with the largest urban populations

The vaginal microbiota associates with the regression of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 lesions

Emerging evidence suggests associations between the vaginal microbiota (VMB) composition, human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN); however, causal inference remains uncertain. Here, we use bacterial DNA sequencing from serially collected vaginal samples from a cohort of 87 adolescent and young women aged 16–26 years with histologically confirmed, untreated CIN2 lesions to determine whether VMB composition affects rates of regression over 24 months. We show that women with a Lactobacillus-dominant microbiome at baseline are more likely to have regressive disease at 12 months. Lactobacillus spp. depletion and presence of specific anaerobic taxa including Megasphaera, Prevotella timonensis and Gardnerella vaginalis are associated with CIN2 persistence and slower regression. These findings suggest that VMB composition may be a future useful biomarker in predicting disease outcome and tailoring surveillance, whilst it may offer rational targets for the development of new prevention and treatment strategies

Research for city practice

CITY KNOW-HOW: Worrying trends in terms of human health and planetary health are receiving increasing global concern. City leadership, planning and development all place the constraints on urban behaviours and lifestyles, usually accelerating the problems. It is imperative that human health and environmental impacts become core foci in urban policies around the world. Changing our trajectory will require concerted action. Cities & Health aims to be part of that change; it is dedicated to supporting the flow of knowledge, in all directions, to help make this happen. We support better communication between researchers, practitioners, policy-makers, communities, and decision-makers in cities. This is the primary purpose of this City Know-how section of the journal. ‘Research for city practice’ disseminates lessons research, allowing researchers to explain new knowledge and key messages arising from their studies for city leaders, communities, and the professions involved in city policy and practice. ‘City shorts’ provide glimpses of what is being attempted or achieved ‘on the ground’ and ’case studies’ are where you will find evaluations of interventions. Lastly, ‘Commentary and debate’ extends the conversations we are having to develop and mobilise important and innovative thinking. We invite you to join these conversations. In order to strengthen communities of interest, we would like to include many and varied voices, including those from practitioners, politicians and policy-makers and researchers who are supporting health and health equity in everyday urban lives. Whether you are a just starting out on your journey, or an old hand, we would love to hear from you