Transfer of conflict and cooperation from experienced games to new games: A connectionist model of learning

The question of whether, and if so how, learning can be transfered from previously experienced games to novel games has recently attracted the attention of the experimental game theory literature. Existing research presumes that learning operates over actions, beliefs or decision rules. This study instead uses a connectionist approach that learns a direct mapping from game payoffs to a probability distribution over own actions. Learning is operationalized as a backpropagation rule that adjusts the weights of feedforward neural networks in the direction of increasing the probability of an agent playing a myopic best response to the last game played. One advantage of this approach is that it expands the scope of the model to any possible nxn normal-form game allowing for a comprehensive model of transfer of learning. Agents are exposed to games drawn from one of seven classes of games with significantly different strategic characteristics and then forced to play games from previously unseen classes. I find significant transfer of learning, i.e., behavior that is path-dependent, or conditional on the previously seen games. Cooperation is more pronounced in new games when agents are previously exposed to games where the incentive to cooperate is stronger than the incentive to compete, i.e., when individual incentives are aligned. Prior exposure to Prisoner's dilemma, zero-sum and discoordination games led to a significant decrease in realized payoffs for all the game classes under investigation. A distinction is made between superficial and deep transfer of learning both---the former is driven by superficial payoff similarities between games, the latter by differences in the incentive structures or strategic implications of the games. I examine whether agents learn to play the Nash equilibria of games, how they select amongst multiple equilibria, and whether they transfer Nash equilibrium behavior to unseen games. Sufficient exposure to a strategically h

Assessing the economic impact of diseases in Mediterranean grow-out farms culturing European sea bass

The aim of this work is to propose a novel and formal approach to evaluate the direct costs of diseases caused by different pathogens as well as their economic impact on typical Mediterranean grow-out farms culturing European sea bass under different scenarios of production related to the biomass produced (farm size) and the size of the fish produced (production strategy). We employ a deterministic static model to simulate the annual income statement of those facilities to evaluate the direct costs caused by different diseases as well as, through a partial budget and sensitivity analyses, the economic impact of them. An important conclusion of this work is that the profitability and economic viability of sea bass grow-out farms suffering recurrent outbreaks of diseases caused by different pathogens depend on the farm typology (farm size) as well as the decisions taken by owners/investors about the size of the fish produced and sold in the market. Our estimations show that as the larger is the farm and the size of the fish produced, the larger are the direct cost of a disease outbreak. However, the economic impact on the net operating profit is significantly worse as smaller is the farm and smaller the fish produced. The conclusions of this research stress the need for small producers to pay attention and devote resources to prevent and treat disease outbreaks.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Perioperative mortality and major cardio-pulmonary complications after lung surgery for non-small cell carcinoma

Objectives: A database of patients operated of lung cancer was analyzed to evaluate the predictive risk factors of operative deaths and life-threatening cardiopulmonary complications. Methods: From 1990 to 1997, data were collected concerning 634 consecutive patients undergoing lung resection for non-small cell carcinoma in an academic medical centre and a regional hospital. Operations were managed by a team of experienced surgeons, anaesthesiologists and chest physicians. Operative mortality was defined as death within 30 days of operation and/or intra-hospital death. Respiratory failure, myocardial infarct, heart failure, pulmonary embolism and stroke were considered as major non-fatal complications. Preoperative risk factors, extent of surgery, pTNM staging, perioperative mortality and major cardiopulmonary complications were recorded and evaluated using chi-square statistics and multivariate logistic regression. Results: Complete data were obtained in 621 cases. The overall operative mortality was 3.2% (n=19). Cardiovascular complications (n=10), haemorrhage (n=4) and sepsis or acute lung injury (n=5) were incriminated as the main causative factors. In addition, there were 13 life-threatening complications (2.1%) consisting in strokes (n=4), myocardial infarcts (n=5), pulmonary embolisms (n=1), acute lung injury (n=1) and respiratory failure (n=2). Four independent predictors of operative death were identified: pneumonectomy, evidence of coronary artery disease (CAD), ASA class 3 or 4 and period 1990-93. In addition, the risk of major complications was increased in hypertensive patients and in those belonging to ASA class 3 or 4. A trend towards improved outcome was observed during the second period, from 1994 to 97. Conclusion: Our data demonstrate that perioperative mortality is mainly dependent on the extent of surgery, the presence of CAD and provision of adequate medical and nursing care. Preoperative testing and interventions to reduce the cardiovascular risk factors may help to further improve perioperative outcom

Migrant care workers at the intersection of rural belonging in small English communities

Shortage of staff in the private care sector brought migrant participants of this study to rural communities in northwest England. The care workers, fourteen highly skilled first-generation migrants, described experiences of feeling unsettled, despite residing in these communities for an average of nine years. Social divisions, such as their race, ethnicity, and gender, intersected in rural England to create an overwhelming, at times, feeling of being othered. We use intersectionality as a framework to examine the advantageous and disadvantageous positionings of migrant workers, alongside their strategies of resistance and adaptation, filling in the gaps that acculturation theory glosses over

Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015