Rank Preservation and Reversal in Decision Making

There are numerous real life examples done by many people which show that the alternatives of a decision sometimes can reverse their original rank order when new alternatives are added or old ones deleted and without bringing in new criteria. There is no mathematical theorem which proves that rank must always be preserved and there cannot be because of real life and hypothetical counter examples in decision making methods. Rank preservation came to be accepted as the standard because of techniques that could only rate alternatives one at a time treating them as independent. Thus an alternative receives a score and it will not change when other alternatives are added or deleted. All methods that only rate alternatives one at a time, thus always preserving rank, may not lead to the right decision; even if they may be right in certain areas of application. In reality, to determine how good an alternative is on an intangible criterion needs experience and knowledge about other alternatives and hence in their evaluation, the alternatives cannot be completely considered as independent of one another

Stochastic Chemical Reactions in Micro-domains

Traditional chemical kinetics may be inappropriate to describe chemical reactions in micro-domains involving only a small number of substrate and reactant molecules. Starting with the stochastic dynamics of the molecules, we derive a master-diffusion equation for the joint probability density of a mobile reactant and the number of bound substrate in a confined domain. We use the equation to calculate the fluctuations in the number of bound substrate molecules as a function of initial reactant distribution. A second model is presented based on a Markov description of the binding and unbinding and on the mean first passage time of a molecule to a small portion of the boundary. These models can be used for the description of noise due to gating of ionic channels by random binding and unbinding of ligands in biological sensor cells, such as olfactory cilia, photo-receptors, hair cells in the cochlea.Comment: 33 pages, Journal Chemical Physic

User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner

Background: The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. Methods: AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Results: Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. Conclusions: AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department

U(1)-invariant membranes: the geometric formulation, Abel and pendulum differential equations

The geometric approach to study the dynamics of U(1)-invariant membranes is developed. The approach reveals an important role of the Abel nonlinear differential equation of the first type with variable coefficients depending on time and one of the membrane extendedness parameters. The general solution of the Abel equation is constructed. Exact solutions of the whole system of membrane equations in the D=5 Minkowski space-time are found and classified. It is shown that if the radial component of the membrane world vector is only time dependent then the dynamics is described by the pendulum equation.Comment: 19 pages, v3 published versio

Achieving Good Angular Resolution in 3D Arc Diagrams

We study a three-dimensional analogue to the well-known graph visualization approach known as arc diagrams. We provide several algorithms that achieve good angular resolution for 3D arc diagrams, even for cases when the arcs must project to a given 2D straight-line drawing of the input graph. Our methods make use of various graph coloring algorithms, including an algorithm for a new coloring problem, which we call localized edge coloring.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures; to appear at the 21st International Symposium on Graph Drawing (GD 2013

Fault Troubleshooting Using Bayesian Network and Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Fault troubleshooting aims to diagnose and repair faults at the highest efficacy and a minimum cost. The efficacy depends on multiple criteria like fault probability, cost, time, and risk of a repair action. This paper proposes a novel fault troubleshooting approach by combining Bayesian network with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). Automobile engine start-up failure is used as a case study. Bayesian network is employed to establish fault diagnostic model for reasoning and calculating standard values of uncertain criteria like fault probability. MCDA is adopted to integrate the influence of the four criteria and calculate utility value of the actions in each troubleshooting step. The approach enables a cost-saving, high efficient, and low risky troubleshooting

Rational bidding using reinforcement learning: an application in automated resource allocation

The application of autonomous agents by the provisioning and usage of computational resources is an attractive research field. Various methods and technologies in the area of artificial intelligence, statistics and economics are playing together to achieve i) autonomic resource provisioning and usage of computational resources, to invent ii) competitive bidding strategies for widely used market mechanisms and to iii) incentivize consumers and providers to use such market-based systems. The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, we present a framework for supporting consumers and providers in technical and economic preference elicitation and the generation of bids. Secondly, we introduce a consumer-side reinforcement learning bidding strategy which enables rational behavior by the generation and selection of bids. Thirdly, we evaluate and compare this bidding strategy against a truth-telling bidding strategy for two kinds of market mechanisms – one centralized and one decentralized

Operational excellence in a green supply chain for environmental management: a case study

Nowadays, organizations have started to become more conscious about the environment in their supply chain operations. The greening process has guided supply chain practices into new ways of thinking according to green standards. The assessment of the performance of green supply chain management (GSCM) requires a holistic view for the whole supply chain. In this context, given that becoming green in the operational side of activities is essential, the performance assessment of operational activities also requires a holistic view to be taken. In this paper, an attempt has been made to improve the performance of GSCM by examining and evaluating the green operational excellence of a hot dip galvanizing company. The framework includes several green operational excellence key criteria, namely, quality management, efficiency management, green production/manufacturing, eco-packaging, and green design. First, the weights of the criteria and the respective measurements were found by fuzzy analytic network process. Then, the overall operational performance score was found by a weighted scoring method. Finally, both managerial and theoretical implications were suggested according to the outcomes and findings of the case study

Evaluating the efficiency of membrane's refurbishment solutions to perform vertical extensions in old buildings using a multicriteria decision-support model

The initial premise of this research is that the relative efficiency of refurbishment solutions with architectural membranes needs to be measured in order to allow its comparison with conventional solutions, helping decision makers to select the most efficient solutions. The evaluation of this efficiency depends on economic features, but also on functional, technological and environmental ones. This study presents a model to solve this problem, using decision trees, multicriteria decision-making methods (SAW and AHP) and a sensitivity analysis. The selection of the criteria and the assignment of the corresponding weights was attained through an expert group survey for a baseline scenario, aiming maximizing functional performance (such as energy savings) and minimizing employed resources (materials, costs, etc.). The most efficient refurbishment solution among the set of alternatives was reached using the developed model. The methodology was applied to a case study - an old building from the nineteenth century, located in Portugal, which was refurbished with a vertical extension. The result reveals that the proposed model is successful and illustrates the potential of this evaluation methodology to compare and quantify the efficiency of a series of different lightweight constructive solutions. It also underlines the advantages of using lightweight building technologies, especially with architectural membrane materials, in building refurbishments.This research was made possible by the support of the: Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portuguese Ministry of Education and Science (MCE) and European Social Fund (ESF) with the reference grant SFRH/BD/104891/2014; the Project UID/AUR/04509/2013 by FCTMEC by national funding and FEDER co-financing under the new PT2020 partnership agreement - Lab2PT, School of Architecture/University of Minho, Portugal; and Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007457 - CONSTRUCT - Institute of R&D In Structures and Construction of Faculty of Engineering/University of Porto, Portugal, funded by FEDER funds through COMPETE2020

Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Riparian Revegetation Policy Options

While riparian vegetation can play a major role in protecting land, water and natural habitat in catchments, there are high costs associated with tree planting and establishment and in diverting land from cropping. The distribution of costs and benefits of riparian revegetation creates conflicts in the objectives of various stakeholder groups, and elicitation of importance weights of objectives and determination of rankings of a number of policy options by these stakeholder groups becomes critical in decision-making. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a multicriteria analysis technique that provides an appropriate tool to accommodate the conflicting views of various stakeholder groups. The AHP allows the users to assess the relative importance of multiple criteria (or multiple alternatives against a given criterion) in an intuitive manner. This paper presents an application of AHP to obtain preference weights of environmental, social and economic objectives which have been used in ranking riparian revegetation policy options in a small catchment (watershed) in north Queensland, Australia. The preference weights towards environmental, economic and social objectives have been obtained for the various stakeholder groups (landholders, representatives of local sugar mill staff, environmentalists, recreational fishers and the local community). The AHP technique has proved useful in eliciting objectives and ranking policy options as well as in checking for consistency of the statements of stakeholder groups. Implementation of this approach requires a complex data elicitation process