The Performance of Private Equity Funds: Does Diversification Matter?

This paper is the first systematic analysis of the impact of diversification on the performance of private equity funds. A unique data set allows the exact evaluation of diversification across the dimensions financing stages, industries, and countries. Very different levels of diversification can be observed across sample funds. While some funds are highly specialized others are highly diversified. The empirical results show that the rate of return of private equity funds declines with diversification across financing stages, but increases with diversification across industries. Accordingly, the fraction of portfolio companies which have a negative return or return nothing at all, increase with diversification across financing stages. Diversification across countries has no systematic effect on the performance of private equity funds

Identification of SERPINA1 as single marker for papillary thyroid carcinoma through microarray meta analysis and quantification of its discriminatory power in independent validation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several DNA microarray based expression signatures for the different clinically relevant thyroid tumor entities have been described over the past few years. However, reproducibility of these signatures is generally low, mainly due to study biases, small sample sizes and the highly multivariate nature of microarrays. While there are new technologies available for a more accurate high throughput expression analysis, we show that there is still a lot of information to be gained from data deposited in public microarray databases. In this study we were aiming (1) to identify potential markers for papillary thyroid carcinomas through meta analysis of public microarray data and (2) to confirm these markers in an independent dataset using an independent technology.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We adopted a meta analysis approach for four publicly available microarray datasets on papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) nodules versus nodular goitre (NG) from N2-frozen tissue. The methodology included merging of datasets, bias removal using distance weighted discrimination (DWD), feature selection/inference statistics, classification/crossvalidation and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). External Validation was performed on an independent dataset using an independent technology, quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) in our laboratory.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From meta analysis we identified one gene (SERPINA1) which identifies papillary thyroid carcinoma against benign nodules with 99% accuracy (n = 99, sensitivity = 0.98, specificity = 1, PPV = 1, NPV = 0.98). In the independent validation data, which included not only PTC and NG, but all major histological thyroid entities plus a few variants, SERPINA1 was again markedly up regulated (36-fold, p = 1:3*10^-10) in PTC and identification of papillary carcinoma was possible with 93% accuracy (n = 82, sensitivity = 1, specificity = 0.90, PPV = 0.76, NPV = 1). We also show that the extracellular matrix pathway is strongly activated in the meta analysis data, suggesting an important role of tumor-stroma interaction in the carcinogenesis of papillary thyroid carcinoma.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We show that valuable new information can be gained from meta analysis of existing microarray data deposited in public repositories. While single microarray studies rarely exhibit a sample number which allows robust feature selection, this can be achieved by combining published data using DWD. This approach is not only efficient, but also very cost-effective. Independent validation shows the validity of the results from this meta analysis and confirms SERPINA1 as a potent mRNA marker for PTC in a total (meta analysis plus validation) of 181 samples.</p

The diagnostic value of liver biopsy

BACKGROUND: Since the introduction of molecular diagnostic tools such as markers for hepatitis C and different autoimmune diseases, liver biopsy is thought to be useful mainly for staging but not for diagnostic purposes. The aim was to review the liver biopsies for 5 years after introduction of testing for hepatitis C, in order to evaluate what diagnostic insights – if any – remain after serologic testing. METHODS: Retrospective review of all liver biopsies performed between 1.1.1995 and 31.12.1999 at an academic outpatient hepatology department. The diagnoses suspected in the biopsy note were compared with the final diagnosis arrived at during a joint meeting with the responsible clinicians and a hepatopathologist. RESULTS: In 365 patients, 411 diagnoses were carried out before biopsy. 84.4 % were confirmed by biopsy but in 8.8 %, 6.8 % and 10.5 % the diagnosis was specified, changed or a diagnosis added, respectively. Additional diagnoses of clinical relevance were unrecognized biliary obstruction and additional alcoholic liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C. Liver biopsy led to change in management for 12.1 % of patients. CONCLUSION: Even in the era of advanced virological, immunological and molecular genetic testing, liver biopsy remains a useful diagnostic tool. The yield is particularly high in marker negative patients but also in patients with a clear-cut prebiopsy diagnosis, liver biopsy can lead to changes in patient management

Improving virtual screening of G protein-coupled receptors via ligand-directed modeling

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) play crucial roles in cell physiology and pathophysiology. There is increasing interest in using structural information for virtual screening (VS) of libraries and for structure-based drug design to identify novel agonist or antagonist leads. However, the sparse availability of experimentally determined GPCR/ligand complex structures with diverse ligands impedes the application of structure-based drug design (SBDD) programs directed to identifying new molecules with a select pharmacology. In this study, we apply ligand-directed modeling (LDM) to available GPCR X-ray structures to improve VS performance and selectivity towards molecules of specific pharmacological profile. The described method refines a GPCR binding pocket conformation using a single known ligand for that GPCR. The LDM method is a computationally efficient, iterative workflow consisting of protein sampling and ligand docking. We developed an extensive benchmark comparing LDM-refined binding pockets to GPCR X-ray crystal structures across seven different GPCRs bound to a range of ligands of different chemotypes and pharmacological profiles. LDM-refined models showed improvement in VS performance over origin X-ray crystal structures in 21 out of 24 cases. In all cases, the LDM-refined models had superior performance in enriching for the chemotype of the refinement ligand. This likely contributes to the LDM success in all cases of inhibitor-bound to agonist-bound binding pocket refinement, a key task for GPCR SBDD programs. Indeed, agonist ligands are required for a plethora of GPCRs for therapeutic intervention, however GPCR X-ray structures are mostly restricted to their inactive inhibitor-bound state

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)